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December 2022


dmillz25
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11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I wouldn't mind the short lived hostile Pacific look emerging. In fact, I'd probably even welcome it. If it ends up with this general look. It's not perfect. Could use a bit more Ural ridging. Maybe a bit more AK trough but halfway decent alignment.  ;)

20221201_155656.thumb.png.c461f378f9a4b7c15ea7059d8ac2dac4.png

The EPS is amazing. 

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14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EPS is amazing. 

Yes it is. I didn't mind the 12z GEFS either TBH. There can be a storm opportunity when the block first retros to west based with these. I think that's the look we're seeing around 12-15th. Before that it's still evolving IMO. Not ready yet. Better storm chance when the block breaks down. But we're not seeing out that far. Who knows though. We'll see what happens. That'd be my WAG.

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59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also as mentioned in the MA forum. EPS has been rock steady while GEFS has been more volatile run to run. Something to keep in mind.

I'll play devil's advocate here and urge caution. EPS did this last year where it was rock solid and the LR GEFS waffled around. Ironically, the most consistent EPS was being consistently inaccurate and when we would get within about D+8 the GEFS would hone in on a solution and the 'slow to budge' EPS stubbornly and slowly caved numerous times. Different season of course so who knows. But the GFS family has generally handled Ninas a little better wrt LR ens. 

Gambling sharps would say bet the consistent trend tho, right? :devilsmiley:

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely a can kick today on all the guidance with regards to the pac. Hopefully this pattern doesn’t stay in the 11-15 day all month 

Yeah, quite a bit of Pacific variability days 11-15 among the big 3. But I guess this is to be expected. Getting the Pacific Jet  right that far out isn’t a model strength. 
 

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16CD5959-54BF-470D-9E15-53D1A8DB26D4.thumb.png.c28095d7398f549c0212099afd2e7848.png

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, quite a bit of Pacific variability days 11-15 among the big 3. But I guess this is to be expected. Getting the Pacific Jet  right that far out isn’t a model strength. 
 

E6BCA904-F213-4A85-AECE-E6E1DB3E0FCF.thumb.png.c90e94152cae88992e1772349147436c.png

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16CD5959-54BF-470D-9E15-53D1A8DB26D4.thumb.png.c28095d7398f549c0212099afd2e7848.png

 

Of all of those the EPS looks best as far as cold and storminess potential in the east.  If I had to pick one to be in my court I'd want the EPS.  We're still looking at day 10+ and maybe day 15+ before this potential pattern can maybe start to deliver.  Don't see much next 7-10 days to get that excited about.  Do have to watch for the dreaded constant push forward in time model solutions in the coming days.  Block is coming of that I'm sure but what the effect is on sensible weather in the east is uncertain.  The block on its own is not going to do it as far as cold and snow for this forum.

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16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models usually struggle with pattern changes as we know . ( unless the pattern change is wrong)

Thats why alot of folks here believe in taking the guidance with the least favorable solution. Nothing scientific to it but it helps keep people's wx hobby expectations in check. And ironically it seems to work that way 9 times out of 10. Of course if youre a pro forecaster that isnt the preferred method ;)

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8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It'll be fine in the end like the delays in all prior blocking events.

GEFS gets there 

 

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models struggle to figure out the Pacific beyond a few days.

The day to day changes on the models are drastic. I predict they'll shift back to favorable in the next day or two

I hope so…if this trend continues I wouldn’t expect much in the way of snow until after the 15th at the earliest 

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Tomorrow will be fair but cold. A system will then bring warmer conditions and rain for tomorrow night and Saturday before colder air returns to the region.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +16.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.741 today.

On November 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.228 (RMM). The November 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.590 (RMM).

 

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Until something shows up within day 5 it’s tough to get excited about it given the chaotic Pacific patterns we’ve been having over the last 4-5 winters. If the Pacific ends up that much a disaster with the MJO getting stuck in 5-6 it could definitely still ruin it. I’m hopeful at this stage but nowhere near excited yet. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, quite a bit of Pacific variability days 11-15 among the big 3. But I guess this is to be expected. Getting the Pacific Jet  right that far out isn’t a model strength. 
 

E6BCA904-F213-4A85-AECE-E6E1DB3E0FCF.thumb.png.c90e94152cae88992e1772349147436c.png

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16CD5959-54BF-470D-9E15-53D1A8DB26D4.thumb.png.c28095d7398f549c0212099afd2e7848.png

 

notice how the most consistent feature is a record breaking greenland block 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Until something shows up within day 5 it’s tough to get excited about it given the chaotic Pacific patterns we’ve been having over the last 4-5 winters. If the Pacific ends up that much a disaster with the MJO getting stuck in 5-6 it could definitely still ruin it. I’m hopeful at this stage but nowhere near excited yet. 

I honestly don't see anything to worry about yet.  I said 5 days ago people are going to need to be patient.  I'm still excited for the same period (after the 18th).  

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