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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It comes down to whether we can avoid the extreme RNA pattern of last year + whether the strength of Atlantic blocking could suppress SE ridge enough to allow for snow events. 

GEFS going back and forth on strength of blocking. New runs look better

we aren't going to see a -PNA of that magnitude for that long for a long time. that was a record breaking semi-permanent Aleutian ridge

we're going to see a -PNA spell to start December, but it should be transitionary rather than anything like that 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You can express doubt, but other than voodoo assumptions and no facts behind it, or not even looking at models….I don’t have any empathy if you get criticized. 

There’s no basis for criticism. I look at everything everyday ..just like you and everyone else. The fact that someone who questions the validity of day 14+ modeling gets ridiculed seems a bit odd. All I am doing is expressing the idea.. maybe it won’t work out snowy and cold. And maybe it will . I mean whip me with a wet towel in the locker room for not buying in full throttle . 

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think it’s fantastic how good they look. But why can’t someone express their doubts on here ? How many times have they burned us.. over these 3 Nina years in a row? This exact same thing happened the last 2 winters . They looked great.. most Mets bit and forecast it.. and then it didn’t happen nearly as epic as it looked. I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen.. but what’s wrong with worrying or questioning how good things will be?  I got called a whiner by Will and a poster by the name Snowcrazed asked me how old I was . Simply for expressing another option . I’m the biggest snow lover here. I’m not sold at all on this epic pattern .  I hope they are right. 

Na, expressing doubts is all part of it.  Keeps snow weenies like me in check.  Part of the drug is the chase and the ups and downs…but when you have a red tag and all that knowledge and the best you can do is drop in every couple weeks with a rain umbrella or to point out some 2 day fire red anomaly, I think people just expect more.  With all that met degree stuff, at least explain why that blue bomb at 5 days out is going to lead to naked slip and slide instead  instead of piles of snow.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no basis for criticism. I look at everything everyday ..just like you and everyone else. The fact that someone who questions the validity of day 14+ modeling gets ridiculed seems a bit odd. All I am doing is expressing the idea.. maybe it won’t work out snowy and cold. And maybe it will . I mean whip me with a wet towel in the locker room for not buying in full throttle . 

Big snap to your cahones

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we aren't going to see a -PNA of that magnitude for that long for a long time. that was a record breaking semi-permanent Aleutian ridge

we're going to see a -PNA spell to start December, but it should be transitionary rather than anything like that 

Also I think the MJO was moderately strong in phase 6, it probably will be in  7 or 8 or CDO this time

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no basis for criticism. I look at everything everyday ..just like you and everyone else. The fact that someone who questions the validity of day 14+ modeling gets ridiculed seems a bit odd. All I am doing is expressing the idea.. maybe it won’t work out snowy and cold. And maybe it will . I mean whip me with a wet towel in the locker room for not buying in full throttle . 

I posted things look good and you respond with 15-20 days of winter wasted. I don’t even know where that comes from. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In my head I am thinking in between 12/5-12/10 the chances increase for wintry events across the region. What’s wrong with that? 

Nothing wrong at all. 
 

C’mon we know Kevs game…when he says that 20 days of winter is wasted, what he  really means is can you give me a more concrete answer when our chances get better, and it may snow?  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing wrong at all. 
 

C’mon we know Kevs game…when he says that 20 days of winter is wasted, what he  really means is can you give me a more concrete answer when our chances get better, and it may snow?  

I can’t give an answer and as his BFF says…..deal with it. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The next 15-20 days does not look good . It’s 20 wasted potential winter days in an already short season 

Actually according to the ensemble runs today…it looks quite nice by 12/5-12/6…of course that doesn’t guarantee anything, but that’s not 20 days wasted, and December gone. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This place is funny. God forbid anyone express any worries or concerns that things might possibly not turn out like they are modeled . I mean if you’ve been around long enough.. you know the pattern is not going to turn epic like these forecasters and models are saying. I just can’t excited anymore at day 14 progs . They never work out . Not to say it won’t snow by Dec 10

Where is the optimistic Woody?

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

We are so cooked this weekend. Light packin’. T-shirts and sweatshirts.

We 60’s.

It actually won’t happen that way but I’ll give you Sunday up into the mid 50s potentially.  Today felt warm after the recent cold but my high was normal.   When you moved here from LI, did you expect deep winter 5 days before the calendar turned from November to December?

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It actually won’t happen that way but I’ll give you Sunday up into the mid 50s potentially.  Today felt warm after the recent cold but my high was normal.   When you moved here from LI, did you expect deep winter 5 days before the calendar turned from November to December?

Ya Jerry, the Pope is definitely on the wrong side of this one again.  He laughed at Ginxy a few weeks back, and got schooled big time. Now he’s calling for record warmth…it’s laughable. 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

After the last 2 winters and false promises of models and on here .. I am a little gunshy. That’s all . I guess that’s wrong . 
 

Snowwncold4eva 

 

The weak PV and the occasionally funky angular momentum numbers in recent 8 weeks more indicative of a Nino may very well result in a different outcome this year.  I know we've seen jokes of a La Nino on social media but there are really signs of both to some degree.  We've even seen periods where there is a subtropical jet feature the last 4-6 months 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The weak PV and the occasionally funky angular momentum numbers in recent 8 weeks more indicative of a Nino may very well result in a different outcome this year.  I know we've seen jokes of a La Nino on social media but there are really signs of both to some degree.  We've even seen periods where there is a subtropical jet feature the last 4-6 months 

I am all about being positive and buying in . Just need to see the whites of its eyes. The boy who cried wolf sits in the forefront . Maybe being a lifelong sales guy makes me evaluate things differently than most. I really don’t understand what I did wrong to incite folks today . Certainly was not my intention. I’ll continue to hope the snowy forecasts are right .

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The weak PV and the occasionally funky angular momentum numbers in recent 8 weeks more indicative of a Nino may very well result in a different outcome this year.  I know we've seen jokes of a La Nino on social media but there are really signs of both to some degree.  We've even seen periods where there is a subtropical jet feature the last 4-6 months 

Maybe it’s just me, but I feel the seasonal progression/step down since the beginning of September this year has been perfect, save for the 5 day torch of mid to upper 70’s in November 2.5-3 weeks ago.   Other than that(and there’s always gonna be a weird glitch in every season) it’s been a very traditional/old fashioned autumn. 

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44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no basis for criticism. I look at everything everyday ..just like you and everyone else. The fact that someone who questions the validity of day 14+ modeling gets ridiculed seems a bit odd. All I am doing is expressing the idea.. maybe it won’t work out snowy and cold. And maybe it will . I mean whip me with a wet towel in the locker room for not buying in full throttle . 

Oooooo .. I'll whip you if you have a nice butt! 

In all seriousness. When you are constantly negative Nancy, it's gonna be hard to engage with you when we do have that epic Winter storm. Trust me man. I am as big of a weather weenie as most in here, and I do get frustrated and want to throw the towel in early. But, I have to many good things in my life to allow the weather to take me down. I know I joke with you... But trust me... I feel your pain. 

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37 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Oooooo .. I'll whip you if you have a nice butt! 

In all seriousness. When you are constantly negative Nancy, it's gonna be hard to engage with you when we do have that epic Winter storm. Trust me man. I am as big of a weather weenie as most in here, and I do get frustrated and want to throw the towel in early. But, I have to many good things in my life to allow the weather to take me down. I know I joke with you... But trust me... I feel your pain. 

And on that note .. I am out 

 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

After the last 2 winters and false promises of models and on here .. I am a little gunshy. That’s all . I guess that’s wrong . 
 

Snowwncold4eva 

It’s been underwhelming for several winters now for sure. Bought’s of excitement but lacking in memorable stretches. 
 

It’s too early to gauge where we’re headed this season though but if anything, there are more positive signs then negatives so far. Pretty simple imo. Anything else really is subjective and emotionally driven, and that’s fine. It’s what this place is for…just don’t be surprised by the counters especially on 11/22.
 

 

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