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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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mm...I've been noticing the EPO retro thing for a while now.  It wasn't very obvious at first. 

Several paragraphs incoming beyond this point: 10 or so days ( 2 weeks) ago, the extended at the time (ens too) were thrusting the EPO ridge.  The operational versions occasionally even began bursting rather aggressively. 

But then, I noticed that the eastern N/A heights were never receding - in fact...going warmer... That's 'okay'  ...I mean the -EPO teleconnector is a bit of a lag correlation here... The only time a -EPO onset directly cools this far down stream in short order, is if we are already IN a favorable L/W construct ( 2015 being the king example of the 'not have to wait' model).  

But, then ... --> retros began in the guidance over successive runs ... Kept happening, too. Repositioning the ridge toward the western limb of the EPO domain space... Sometimes even opting to have it not even in the EPO region so much, but squarely over the GOA, a configuration that pushes deeper heights through the Rockies and would make all this a moot point, anyway. 

There is room for hope not based purely on fantasy, however... nested in that complexity - just in case the above does not offer enough popsicle headache as it is... It would be low probability 'white knight' for colder enthusiasts, but is at least non-zero.

The GGEM/GEF/EUR ens anomaly products have been an old standard metric for me, for assessing a feel for where the direction the continental temperatures may be heading.  It's not just that, but NINAs tend to cool off autumns in Canada (it's after that they f* the year over but we'll cross that bridge, lol).  So it seems there are mechanisms in play that fit the climo for ENSO ( which yes...I have a problem with using now, more so than I used to do to CC but... I'd rather not incur the wrath of Ray on NFL Sunday, when we're looking most likely forward to a debacle loss against the loathsome Jets already.)

Okay, now that everyone's migraines are sufficiently wound up... all I'm saying is that sometimes the cold loads into the Canadian shield first..even if west initially, then future model trends (yet to manifest at the given point in time) adjust to it - it's kind of a low frequency feedback from continental forcing. The L/W is forced to "split" ... the flow bifurcates somewhere around 100 or 110 west... That sets the table for cold bleeding out across S. Canada - low and behold, the GGEM/Euro are hitting something similar already.  Not sure that should be ignored, because there's a pretty loud climate inference/precedence for gradated cold NW against a SE ridge..

Now, that scenario is going to draw one's eyes naturally SE, first ... because we Meteorologist are really finger painting kindergarten artists that think that, "red is pretty!"  But, that flow construct seldom lends to warmth ~ ORD-BOS latitudes.  Basically, we may be mild to warm, even very warm if aspects break right, over the next 10 days but don't get used to it.  If there was no -EPO at all, I'd say we're f* because the ENSO regardless, that -PNA appears to be locked into the Pacific footprint whether that is Nina this or decoupled that aside. 

The short version of this is that I am a little leery of this "west biased -EPO" aspect not eventually  modulating toward an above tendency mid month...

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Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning.

28 at 8 am, 64 at noon.   

36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing.   Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days.  heh. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry to keep bring this up but the difference is stunning.

28 at 8 am, 64 at noon.   

36 diurnal is impressive enough, but we may get 40 out of this thing.   Still 2 hours of an unabated sun to go, that still offers some heat - ... don't worry winter folk, the solar min starts in 9 days.  heh. 

 

Damage(edit typo lol) Same here 29-64 so far 

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heh

KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/30/2022  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
SUN  30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06 CLIMO
X/N  65| 30  67| 46  65| 45  67| 36  58| 37  64| 42  65| 48  63 31 52
TMP  48| 36  55| 50  56| 49  53| 39  47| 41  53| 46  56| 52  53
DPT  36| 33  47| 49  53| 46  45| 37  40| 38  45| 44  51| 49  47
CLD  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| PC  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| PC  PC| OV  PC
WND   4|  1   7|  2   5|  3   7|  3   5|  2   7|  4   7|  5  12
P12   0|  0   3| 19  22| 10   2|  7  10| 14  14| 23  22| 24  19 22 21
P24    |      3|     32|     10|     10|     20|     23|     36    32
Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |
Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |
T12   0|  0   0|  2   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1
T24    |  0    |  2    |  1    |  0    |  0    |  1    |  3
PZP   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  2   1|  0   0
PSN   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  1   1|  0   0|  7   3
PRS   4|  3   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   1|  1   1|  2   1|  2   1
TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R
SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

heh

KCON   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/30/2022  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
SUN  30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05| SUN 06 CLIMO
X/N  65| 30  67| 46  65| 45  67| 36  58| 37  64| 42  65| 48  63 31 52
TMP  48| 36  55| 50  56| 49  53| 39  47| 41  53| 46  56| 52  53
DPT  36| 33  47| 49  53| 46  45| 37  40| 38  45| 44  51| 49  47
CLD  CL| CL  PC| OV  OV| PC  CL| CL  CL| PC  CL| PC  PC| OV  PC
WND   4|  1   7|  2   5|  3   7|  3   5|  2   7|  4   7|  5  12
P12   0|  0   3| 19  22| 10   2|  7  10| 14  14| 23  22| 24  19 22 21
P24    |      3|     32|     10|     10|     20|     23|     36    32
Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |
Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |
T12   0|  0   0|  2   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1
T24    |  0    |  2    |  1    |  0    |  0    |  1    |  3
PZP   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  2   1|  0   0
PSN   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  1   1|  0   0|  7   3
PRS   4|  3   0|  1   0|  1   1|  1   1|  1   1|  2   1|  2   1
TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R
SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

 

unfortunate aspect about Novie warmth in that particular product is that climatology will destroy it before the numbers hit the output file -

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