Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,275
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago85
    Newest Member
    Chicago85
    Joined

October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

I've been monitoring this ...  It's kind of both camps were right, and both camps were wrong.  Not sure that means the GFS, nor the Euro/NAM tandem(blend) really deserve the win.  

In one sense, the GFS is likely to be right about the lower QPF totaling from N NJ to/throughout SNE, but the Euro and NAM were right about the extension of b-c leafing and what is actually "trying" to fall from ceiling.   The rads been lit up with raging      ...                                      virga -   (altho some is getting down)

I think I recall the Euro doing this in a blizzard back ... oh, some 7 years ago.  It was suddenly attempting to wall in 18" of snow through a 15F BL ...moving it along in a sustained 40kts of NNE trajectory over N Nj and NYC ... doing so with just 48 hours left before go time.  Left NWS scrambling, because the NAM ( with it's typical NW bias that everyone ignores but apparently me for f sake -) was also agreeing with it...  

Nothing -  oops.

Oh, maybe they got a 1.4" of cryo-grits piled up along the base of telephone pools and parked car tires, in a general gelid gray tinted air, but it was an epic epic bust, because they really didn't have much choice but to buy-in. And so was foisted blizzard warnings. 

Maybe a little hyperbolic but something like that...  Radar did have 20 even 30 DBZ returns fanning over top, that far west, but it wasn't saturating the BL.  Anyway, this is not a winter situation, but in general... the Euro and NAM have a history of over playing the W-NW arcs of cyclonic influence. The NAM is actually the far worse of the two, though -

On the flip side, I saw a lot of GFS runs with nothing into Massachusetts' latitude, and it had to bump N with at least measurable inside of 36 hour lead. That's not very good either....  I think it is right, however, in the suppressed behavior with the big high getting ready to pancake through CNE... Mooshing the PP will set us up ( by the way) good and proper for a nasty Sunday of 52 F with 32 mph E fetch gusts tossing soccer kids around the fields...

  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been monitoring this ...  It's kind of both camps were right, and both camps were wrong.  Not sure that means the GFS, nor the Euro/NAM tandem(blend) really deserve the win.  

In one sense, the GFS is likely to be right about the lower QPF totaling from N NJ to/throughout SNE, but the Euro and NAM were right about the extension of b-c leafing and what is actually "trying" to fall from ceiling.   The rads been lit up with raging      ...                                      virga -   (altho some is getting down)

I think I recall the Euro doing this in a blizzard back ... oh, some 7 years ago.  It was suddenly attempting to wall in 18" of snow through a 15F BL ...moving it along in a sustained 40kts of NNE trajectory over N Nj and NYC ... doing so with just 48 hours left before go time.  Left NWS scrambling, because the NAM ( with it's typical NW bias that everyone ignores but apparently me for f sake -) was also agreeing with it...  

Nothing -  oops.

Oh, maybe they got a 1.4" of cryo-grits piled up along the base of telephone pools and parked car tires, in a general gelid gray tinted air, but it was an epic epic bust, because they really didn't have much choice but to buy-in. And so was foisted blizzard warnings. 

Maybe a little hyperbolic but something like that...  Radar did have 20 even 30 DBZ returns fanning over top, that far west, but it wasn't saturating the BL.  Anyway, this is not a winter situation, but in general... the Euro and NAM have a history of over playing the W-NW arcs of cyclonic influence. The NAM is actually the far worse of the two, though -

On the flip side, I saw a lot of GFS runs with nothing into Massachusetts' latitude, and it had to bump N with at least measurable inside of 36 hour lead. That's not very good either....  I think it is right, however, in the suppressed behavior with the big high getting ready to pancake through CNE... Mooshing the PP will set us up ( by the way) good and proper for a nasty Sunday of 52 F with 32 mph E fetch gusts tossing soccer kids around the fields...

Lol .. tossing soccer kids around field . Priceless 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

They are replacing generator and fuel tanks as part of maintenance.  I think KGYX was down last week.

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/KBOX_SLEP.pdf

Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7.  Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Besides, their uptime minus scheduled maintenance numbers are quite good considering the radar system was installed in the late 80's and early 90's, and are operational 24/7.  Some parts of the 88D radar system are still from the original installs and only get replaced when they fail (from what I've read).

Ok ok I’m being too tough. Just seems whenever I look at the radar which admittedly isn’t as much as I used to- it’s down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking skies and conditions will improve and be better for tomorrow ... just watching how this whole ordeal is behaving.  It's already decaying the cloud tendency across upstate NY and C/NNE, and looping you can see it's suppression toward the S/SE albeit slowly.  We've likely seen the worst this was ever going to offer.  

The wind may also be strongest nearer the coast, but once inland, ...a more suppressed PP exerting S will likely mean the easterly conveyor ends up S too, so places along the western side of the ORH hills (say) could end up with 57, lighter winds, partly sunny and actually on the plus side in terms of sensible weather.  

Sun's already carving through over NW CT ...and I don't see this going the other way.  The large dominating synoptic circulation is going to overwhelm this thing.  I'm also a little suspect about that latter sort of new cyclogen S of LI as impacting through mid week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...