wdrag Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Not much to add to previous CoCoRahs event post from Thursday. I will say the ensembles had this right for our area...Ian moisture -sfc isobaric pattern impact was big. Just delayed 36 hours from my own prior Sept post anticipation and there wasn't any rain in the METS-Braves series. The drought monitor posted yesterday was incomplete with event rain, but may not show much change next Thursday since it's essentially pretty dry the Tuesday 12z 10/11 weekly time cutoff. Added a couple of graphics from OKX proposed changed to frost-freeze. The climo portion should be of value, though this may have posted here in earlier days. Finally, I am interested in eventual moisture curling northward into the northeast USA from TD13... unsure if it will be 13-14 or possibly a 18-19. EPS is neutral on above-below normal rainfall 10/12-19, certainly wetter than the GEFS-GEPS. May be worthy of monitoring for later next week or the following week. Maybe we can enjoy an overall cooler than normal pattern Oct-Nov??? Wouldn't that a good signal for a snowy winter. Just haven't had that two month combo for years, as I can recall. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 78 Thursday down to 50 and on the way to try and match 78 or even 80 before the front (dry) comes through. Cooler this weekend before a bit of an up/down back and forth bias a bit below normal through mid month when a potential stronger cool down comes through. Either way shots of reinforcing cool, for a day or two moderating a day then cool again till Oct 15. Looking overall dry again, with next shot of rain coming in about a week with the next front 10/13. you wonder if we didnt get the 6 day rains where we'd be in the next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Man, seeing the heights dive under NJ elicits a Pavlovian response in me. Over here salivating to see this set up in winter, but absolutely loving the cool start to October (and can appreciate the warmer days today and yesterday for those that want the warmth). I’d really love to see a flat to mildly BN DJF, if only to prove it can still happen for us. Read a couple recent climate papers that were rather depressing, would very much love an unexpectedly potent winter season as opposed to “cold shot, torch, cold shot, torch, torch, torch.” Probably asking too much and setting myself up for disappointment, but hope ain’t dead yet in me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro the has the next strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. Some places will most likely see snow at the end of this month if this pattern continues . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning. Its way out there but as the current forecasts now, Oct 16 - 18 looks to be potential widespread first frosts/freezes. Still wonder beyond there towards the 20th if we dont shift a bit warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944. 30s in 1958/1904. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Late next week looks very interesting and potentially stormy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944. 30s in 1958/1904. Interestingly 1904 was just after the VEI 6 eruption of Santa Maria (definitely big enough for significant climate impacts) and 1958 was after Bezymianny’s VEI 5 (and several smaller events just preceding; just about big enough). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Front / clouds into WPA nearing CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Downright hot for 10am in October. Especially in the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Water temps are in the mid to upper 70's just offshore in an interesting eddy that looks to be feeding off of the Gulf stream. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 I love looking at those, but damn there are so many color coded charts in meteorological data where the differentiation between colors is just a monumental challenge to decipher. I pretty much can’t tell the difference between 57F water and 67F water on that. Eh, it’s probably my eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, guinness77 said: Downright hot for 10am in October. Especially in the sun. I'm wearing shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very much agree. Hope we can continue some semblance of this into at least part of the winter. NE Pacific warm pool offers some hope as does warmer water vicinity Greenland. Both of those would tend to favor more ridging in those areas. Says nothing about input from MJO etc. Just hope we are not expending the blocking now only to have little or none during the height of winter. Impressive pattern with strong ridge over the western U.S. into Alaska. Cross polar flow! Could be nice cold outbreak in 7-10 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Yep, it’s beautiful and I’m excited for the further influx of cool, crisp air. My preferred hiking temperatures. Hopefully will make it up state this fall. Just remembering the major pattern resets between Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb between each month last year. Hoping this is the start of a more entrenched pattern than what we’ve seen lately, but the fact that it came so early is either a good omen for the winter or a bad one IMO (“wasting it” in October). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: All that red on that. And we are one of the few small blue blobs. That sucks 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 78 Here. Front to CPA http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 High of 82. Currently you 78. Literally perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Absolutely perfect. Why can't every day be like this. Of course yesterday I had to use defroster to get moisture off windshield in morning. Realized only driver side was clearing and passenger was still foggy. Passenger side has no heat . Dual climate systems are stupid. Dealer wants over $300 lmao. Bought a $15 actuator, although will be a pain in the butt being its behind the glove compartment. Definitely need to change it before frosts and snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Hit a beautiful 77 degrees here today, lots of 70s thru out the area today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Starting to see some foliage on the trees locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Starting to see some foliage on the trees locally. It should really ramp up with the cool nights, dry mild days over next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Leaf change well under way here. Maples/black walnut and the few remaining ash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It should really ramp up with the cool nights, dry mild days over next week Yup, won’t be late this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 82 for a high today, currently 71 as of 6PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Renegade shower in Melville, LI right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 A cold front is now crossing the region. As a result, another cool weekend lies ahead. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +20.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.948 today. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.683 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 The last 80 degree reading here was September 19, almost 3 weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Quick-moving shower dropped 0.01" around 650pm after a high of 80°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now