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Major Hurricane Fiona


GaWx
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27 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Good grief. This is atleast another Hortense, if not Maria-type disaster for Puerto Rico.

This is actually a remarkably Hortense-like track (both observed thus far, and forecast). Surprised I haven't really seen that name come up as a potential analog before. Also like that storm, Fiona took until past the Lesser Antilles to intensify to hurricane status.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether.

It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm.

moving south of west according to recon now.. NHC had a NW movement at 8pm and its clearly not

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether.

It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm.

The troff is unmissable. It's flushing out the western 3rd of the Atlantic and the entire Caribbean.

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18z Euro does push this a little further west and closer to the Turks and Caicos. I'd definitely be watching closely there with this westward jog. Recon is also out doing high altitude sampling of the environment ahead. Any adjustments in the steering pattern would be important for the islands, Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada. 

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

either a weird pattern or going home already?

My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not.

But we'll see. 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not.

But we'll see. 

Also, the SW/W movement could lead to intensity fluctuations. Obviously if it goes into more of DR, core could be disrupted more and thus go more west, not important in terms of US impacts but matters for SE Bahamas. Also could eventually lead to more of a miss of Bermuda and/or a weaker storm that takes more time to intensify over open water. We'll just have to see.

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11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Man, Fiona really hooked left.

 

He's done all he can. If the heading continues he may miss the eyewall too but he's right on the edge.  

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

More or less drifting S of W but this may just be a temporary stall. Unfortunately the slow movement is still a nightmare situation with an intense band still crossing right over the heart of PR. Not a small band either. Just insane echoes continue over the island, on and on....
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There are some really extraordinary rain totals coming out of PR and they have a long way to go. This is from one of my former coworkers that has family there. The family is ok fortunately. 

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The eyewall looked to be reorganizing the past few hours on radar prior to the hiatus in update about 30 minutes ago. No surprise that the CDO is taking off again with a notable hot tower in progress on satellite. Likely due to intense convection wrapping around the northern semicircle of the vortex. It appears Fiona is strengthening again.
cb5bf683c6d656c74c0cd3a9a0ac68d7.gif

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8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The eyewall looked to be reorganizing the past few hours on radar prior to the hiatus in update about 30 minutes ago. No surprise that the CDO is taking off again with a notable hot tower in progress on satellite. Likely due to intense convection wrapping around the northern semicircle of the vortex. It appears Fiona is strengthening again.
cb5bf683c6d656c74c0cd3a9a0ac68d7.gif

 

That southerly moist fetch over PR is straight up nasty. I can't imagine what some of the final rain totals may look like.

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  • GaWx changed the title to Major Hurricane Fiona

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