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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS sits the icelandic low over the region to end the run. That’s a cold final week of Sep and it looks like that cold shot next week could threaten a freeze down here. 

Looks like solid frost or freeze in Coos county last night. Those colors will accelerate.

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You have some competing concepts going on out there along the long side of the middle range.

In once sense, the models have an objective tendency to see that range through an amplifying lens ... presumably, suggesting some 20% normalization/correction by the user - with the caveat in mind, 'extremes sometimes still take place.'  

In the opposing sense,  the N. Pacific is being jolted by recent and future excessive latent heat fluxing.  This is readily observable looping the 500 mb anomalies.  Aft of this present period, through this present period, and out through D6-10,   that is sending wave disruption cue rippling down stream through N/A. The models are still sorting that out..  

In the near term, the outside slider down the California coast is an impressive anomaly evolution in its own rights, but can be traced back as a quasi direct/indirect down stream effect.  In the D4 6 range, the trough amplitude over SE Canada is as well...

Despite one model bias aspect telling us to tone it down ( particularly in the D6 range), and one signal suggesting giving weight to a deeper event wrt to that... I believe those can operate inclusively.  

In other words ...there will be trough, but there is a limit to how deep it will be.  By the time we get to eastern N/A, it's pretty far from the forcing source over the WPO - N. Pac; combining that with over amplitude biases, that all argues convincingly enough to go anomalous, but not crazy.  The Euro takes it too far/deep.   The GGEM for that matter is as well... The ensemble mean of the EPS and GEFS have 2-day trended more amplified, and we'll see how that goes as the D6 passes inside the D5 "bias horizon"

Why does this analysis matter?  Because the idea of freeze is being sold by the operational runs, so that's an event worth covering.  Also, "Fiona" lurking there.

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2020 had that ridiculous stretch around the equinox. CON set 3 consecutive record lows (almost had 4) 

Sept 19-22 minima that year: 29/25/25/26.  Only time we've had 4 straight 20s mornings in September.

Low of 49 here this morning. Low of 45 yesterday. 

You were 4°milder this morning, I was 15° cooler as overnight wind made for a low of 48° yesterday.  The power of mixing.

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That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. 

Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. 

Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. 

Endless summer.

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46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That GFS cold shot is ridiculous for later next week. Prob record cold in a lot of spots. Would prob have a lot of first flakes of season in NNE too and even down into Berkshires/Monads/etc. 

Euro isn’t quite as crazy and is probably more reasonable. Still quite cold though. 

I'm trying to figure out why we are getting such a resonance response from the western Pacific heat flux/typhoon injection, so much during this period.   Am aware there is generic correlation there but if you loop the Pacific broad scope anomaly distribution through D10 ...you can clearly see the constructive feedback - and it's doing it with exceptional coherence.   

It may be just one of those things ... but I suspect that's the question we need to answer.    Granted ...it is the models, and nothing's actually verified yet - I've already outlined some aspects of known biases in the models in the range, which could account for some of the amplitude.

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