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Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yeah different models show different amounts. It's certainly possible that most of it could fall apart before getting to us. We'll see what happens tonight. At least there's a chance.

RGEM being a bit wetter gives me hope...further west one is the better for this...

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Not surprising given one of the slowest starts to any tropical season on record. Just goes to show how much we rely on tropical moisture for our summer rainfall. The complete opposite pattern from the last 2 summers. So ENSO isn’t the only show in town with the other competing marine heatwaves.

 

 

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On 8/28/2022 at 3:09 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Unfortunately if you see an oak that has turned brown it’s dead. Some other trees like red maples for example will turn yellow and gradually shed leaves. Those may survive. But overall this is extremely serious. I don’t even want to think about what another hot dry two weeks will do


.

I've always wondered why the oak trees on the south Shore are so small, thin and not too tall. I've always assumed storm damage and winds but maybe cyclical droughts cause them to die off now and then..

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1 hour ago, Fantom X said:

I've always wondered why the oak trees on the south Shore are so small, thin and not too tall. I've always assumed storm damage and winds but maybe cyclical droughts cause them to die off now and then..

Near the barrier islands, many trees died from saltwater inundation during Sandy. In Long Beach there are very few tall trees anymore, most are newly planted after Sandy. We had a major nor'easter in March 2010 with 75-80mph winds that also destroyed many trees. But what trees there are on the south shore look awful in general this summer. 

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37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Line looks
Beautiful over Pa currently. I’m fact the best organized squall line of the season. It is coming a little late, with the dry ground, let’s see what makes it


.

Already showing signs of peaking.  Doubt much is left by 8:00 or so.  NJ counties that border PA stand best chance at something meaningful.  Maybe some .50" amounts there.  Elsewhere .25" or less I think.

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35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Line looks
Beautiful over Pa currently. I’m fact the best organized squall line of the season. It is coming a little late, with the dry ground, let’s see what makes it


.

Sorry to tell you this however the short term models have this feature running out of gas as it crosses the Delaware River.  I am not even certain it gets as far  east as my location.

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There are ancient fault lines deep underground along the eastern seaboard from when we were stapled into Pangea. Every so often there’s a minor slippage of the otherwise dead faults and you get small intraplate quakes. There’s areas where very large intraplate quakes can happen but I don’t believe our area is at risk for that. Check out the 1811 New Madrid magnitude 7.1-8.1 earthquakes that occurred near the southern tip of Missouri. Massive, major quakes in an unusual location. Ancient fault from millions of years ago. 
 

Also interesting, the Appalachians were the Mesozoic Himalayas and were once every bit as tall if not taller, now of course little more than eroded remnant hills. 

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