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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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This is bullshit. We should just never get another Convective threat again b/c this is pure, 100%, straight up bullshit. You mean to tell me we can’t get crap to form outside of some stupid lillydaddy cell. What the hell else do we need, instability is plenty. I don’t give a crap that it was cloudy at 10:00 AM…it’s not fooking 10:00 AM anymore. It was 3:00 and the sun came out…enough to tan naked and temps soared well into the 80’s, dewpoints are high, shear is damn high, perfect timing of the front, height falls, slight cooling along AND WE STILL CANT GET CRAP TO FORM. It’s fooking stupid 

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nice mid level meso on that storm near Clinton 

If that moved through an hour or two later I would've made a drive down to the water. Maybe would've seen some nice lightning over the sound if nothing else.

Here at the house it's just been some occasional rumbles of thunder the past couple hours...but have managed to pick up 0.20". 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like more slight risk fail as usual.

You wonder if it happened a month ago it would be better, a little late in the day this time of year with the sun angle the way it is to get convection popping.  

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Just now, Whineminster said:

You wonder if it happened a month ago it would be better, a little late in the day this time of year with the sun angle the way it is to get convection popping.  

Ribbing of Wiz aside, he’s right. If we can’t get something marginally decent down here we should pack it up. 

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Our government sucks. Them and their stupid cutbacks so they can play golf on nicer courses. Days like today the NWS should be able to have ample resources to do additional balloon launches and even at special spots. Like 18z could have been launched at ALB, OKX, BDL, and a few other spots so we can get an actual diagnostic sense of the atmosphere. There’s something preventing stuff from popping and it’s not freaking morning cloud cover. We recovered 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Our government sucks. Them and their stupid cutbacks so they can play golf on nicer courses. Days like today the NWS should be able to have ample resources to do additional balloon launches and even at special spots. Like 18z could have been launched at ALB, OKX, BDL, and a few other spots so we can get an actual diagnostic sense of the atmosphere. There’s something preventing stuff from popping and it’s not freaking morning cloud cover. We recovered 

I will say some model runs were sort of meh looking. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say some model runs were sort of meh looking. 

The HRRR backed off a lot which I guess should have been a sign but it was also a bit inconsistent from run-to-run from last night into this morning. The 3km seemed to be pretty aggressive (which usually never is and I thought that may have been a sign). 
 

this isn’t the first time though we have seen a setup very similar to this where nothing popped. Maybe the forcing really is weak? Is there some sort of cap that’s just not breaking? 

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17 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

If that moved through an hour or two later I would've made a drive down to the water. Maybe would've seen some nice lightning over the sound if nothing else.

Here at the house it's just been some occasional rumbles of thunder the past couple hours...but have managed to pick up 0.20". 

Heard some rumbles off to the south and southeast...managed to pick up 20 drops so far.

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A glimmer of hope still...

Quote
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
409 PM Update:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502 remains in effect until 800 PM,
and on the waters/beaches, both high surf advisories in effect
for the south coast and small craft advisories. Have cancelled
the Heat Advisory, though. While still very humid, limited
heating has tempered heat indices to the point where oppressive
heat indices are no longer expected.

Earlier isolated thunderstorms mainly north of the Mass Pike
have shifted offshore in the Gulf of Maine. Additional
convection associated with the actual cold front is now making
its way into far western Franklin County MA SW into portions of
eastern NY. Additional storms were developing in SW CT. These
storms remain in a favorable parameter space for severe weather
with MLCAPEs in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and effective shear
values between 45-55 kt. While storms have been slow to deepen,
perhaps a consequence of earlier cloudiness and intervals of
light showers and the lack of steeper lapse rates between
850-500 mb, 18z HRRR seems to want to fill this cold frontal
convection into a more solid line in the mid to late afternoon
as it moves into the I-91 corridor/central MA before moving ESE
through the Hartford- Providence-Boston areas closer to sundown.
The 12z NAM-3km also wants to do something similar with these
storms. Will also have to monitor the widely scattered storms
near coastal southern CT for potential thunder risks to the
south coast and potentially into Cape Cod. Given the parameter
space, stil think we`re not out of the woods as of yet, so have
maintained the Watch and the enhanced wording. Still think the
bulk of the severe weather risk is through 8 PM, though some of
the guidance simulates continued t-storms near the southern
coast until late this evening. While not imminent yet, if severe
weather evolves the way the HRRR thinks it will into a later
period of time, we could consider a local extension of the Watch
in time. Will reassess this later.

We shall see...

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The HRRR backed off a lot which I guess should have been a sign but it was also a bit inconsistent from run-to-run from last night into this morning. The 3km seemed to be pretty aggressive (which usually never is and I thought that may have been a sign). 
 

this isn’t the first time though we have seen a setup very similar to this where nothing popped. Maybe the forcing really is weak? Is there some sort of cap that’s just not breaking? 

Cuz SNE. 
Honestly the mesos had some meh runs despite the dynamics so they saw something. My guess is the clouds screwed it up too. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wiz we used to do snow and not convection in SNE. It’s why I could give two shits except when an event looks like an immediate slam dunk happened yesterday. 

 

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44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The HRRR backed off a lot which I guess should have been a sign but it was also a bit inconsistent from run-to-run from last night into this morning. The 3km seemed to be pretty aggressive (which usually never is and I thought that may have been a sign). 
 

this isn’t the first time though we have seen a setup very similar to this where nothing popped. Maybe the forcing really is weak? Is there some sort of cap that’s just not breaking? 

There were very little height falls... reflected in the 582 dm barely budging through the day.  Not sure that associated to that, mid level lapse rates were all that great at any point. 

I suspect SPC's issue with today was similar to last week - in that there were tantalizing DPs initially ( although last week it was an advection/ delta issue ), and interesting shear kinematic working over the area.   Same today ... both circumstances lacked lapse rates but for whatever reason - blame luck - we did not trigger today as proficiently.

PR-wise: they were compelled some I suspect because they feel just as badly about kids dying under felled trees, and since last weeks tragedy and the set up is/was some 60 .. 70% analog, they were two-fold definitely pulling the trigger.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There were very little height falls... reflected in the 582 dm barely budging through the day.  Not sure that associated to that, mid level lapse rates were all that great at any point. 

I suspect SPC's issue with today was similar to last week - in that there were tantalizing DPs initially ( although last week it was an advection/ delta issue ), and interesting shear kinematic working over the area.   Same today ... both circumstances lacked lapse rates but for whatever reason - blame luck - we did not trigger today as proficiently.

PR-wise: they were compelled some I suspect because they feel just as badly about kids dying under felled trees, and since last weeks tragedy and the set up is/was some 60 .. 70% analog, they were two-fold definitely pulling the trigger.

Height falls sucked. I saw a post about that and was like....beer?

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