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12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Crazy, Upton said eastern long Island and se ct had the best chances for rain over night and reality was areas west had the best chance. 

Models have been horrid at time with rain chances

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4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Tears in my eyes...most rain in al.ost 2 months

 

Hillsborough  1.23 inches

Hopewell .85 inches

 

If we can do this with the next 2 chances later today and tomorrow....

 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

.75" last night, a small miracle! :)  

Loudest thunder of the season last night with the rain that fell. Euro did a good job with the placement of the heaviest rain 

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Loudest thunder of the season last night with the rain that fell. Euro did a good job with the placement of the heaviest rain 

It was localized though..some parts of my cutting area only got a .50 but ill take anything and hopefully a big gullywasher  tonight and tomorrow 

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Just now, winterwarlock said:

It was localized though..some parts of my cutting area only got a .50 but ill take anything and hopefully a big gullywasher  tonight and tomorrow 

Unfortunately, that’s convection for ya. Hopefully Friday night is more of a area wide soaking 

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

.75" last night, a small miracle! :)  

That's about what I got too. When I went to bed at midnight and saw those downpours in eastern PA, I figured they'd fall apart or miss us because our luck has been so bad. Was surprised when I woke up at 2:45 and it was pouring. Glad I can finally take a break from watering the garden today. Obviously we need a lot more, but that was desperately needed rain.

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2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

It was localized though..some parts of my cutting area only got a .50 but ill take anything and hopefully a big gullywasher  tonight and tomorrow 

Yeah, I only got .48" and i'm not far from FPIZZ

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80° Julys used to be rare at our warmest urban stations. Now they are occurring frequently since 2010. Newark and Harrison are having their warmest July so far. LGA is in 6th place due to a stronger onshore flow influence this month. For our more rural locations like White Plains, it’s the 76° mark which has become very common since 2010. The 76.8° average this month is the 4th highest for July.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 82.8 4
2 2011 82.7 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0
6 2013 80.9 0
7 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
8 2019 80.6 0
9 1955 80.5 0
10 1988 80.4 0
11 2002 80.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 81.7 3
2 2020 81.5 0
3 2019 81.4 0
4 2012 81.2 2
5 2010 81.1 2
6 2002 80.9 0
7 2013 80.7 0
8 2011 80.5 3


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 82.9 0
2 2010 82.8 0
3 1999 81.9 0
4 2019 81.5 0
5 2013 81.2 0
6 2022 81.1 4
- 2016 81.1 0
7 1955 80.9 0
8 1966 80.8 0
9 2006 80.7 0
10 1994 80.6 0
11 2012 80.4 0
- 2011 80.4 0
- 1952 80.4 0
12 2008 80.0 0
- 1993 80.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.5 1
2 2013 77.0 0
- 2010 77.0 0
3 2020 76.9 0
4 2022 76.8 4
- 2019 76.8 0
5 1966 76.7 0
- 1955 76.7 2
6 2011 76.6 1
17 2012 76.4 0
8 2016 76.3 0
- 1983 76.3 1
9 1952 76.2 0
- 1949 76.2 0
10 1995 76.0 6
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --

An upper level low is slowly drifting south from Ontario toward the Great Lakes. The upper level flow out ahead of the low over our area remains mostly zonal, with weak energy passing through. At the surface, a warm front and any associated isolated showers had lifted just E of the CWA. Early to mid afternoon should remain mostly dry ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a few tstms entering western/central PA should moves east and expand in coverage/intensity, reaching western portions of the CWA between 21Z-22Z per 14Z HRRR which has fairly good handle on that activity over PA. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2000) and deep layer shear (35-40kt 0-6 km bulk shear) as this activity approaches will support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat damaging wind gusts. Expect two separate rounds of storms, one via the activity approaching from PA, another passing mainly across the interior this evening. Coverage looks to be scattered given H7 inversion to be overcome, possibly another developing this afternoon at H8-9 via daytime heating/WAA. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has the lower Hudson Valley and S CT under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and the rest of the area in a marginal risk, but could see justification for including NE NJ and the NYC area in that as well. Highs will be in the mid 80s for most, with the NYC/NJ metro reaching the lower/mid 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s will allow for max apparent temperatures in the upper 90s. An isolated brief apparent temperature reading of 100 is possible in the NJ Turnpike corridor of NE NJ. With just one day of apparent temperatures at or above 95 and any 100 degree apparent temperature reading being very isolated, there continues to be no heat headlines after collaboration with neighboring offices. Winds become NW-W briefly behind the cold front and drier air briefly advects into the area. After midnight the entire area should be dry. Lows will be in the mid 60s farther north and west where the cold front will work through first. Across NYC/NJ metro area and Long Island lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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6 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

Would the .48" of rain I got last night change my area back to D0? Or need alot more than that.

That wouldn’t be enough considering how many locations are having one of their driest Julys after a dry June. It’s tough to break a drought with scattered convection. So many 90° and 100° days really dry things out fast this time of year. We generally need a tropical system or a super soaker non tropical event like August 2011 to break a summer drought. Plus our deficit started in June with some spots at 25% of normal rainfall. So the driest areas  are running -5.00 to -6.00 inches below normal since June 1st.


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