Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: oldies?... Oldies means 80s now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: Amazing how identical it can be on "good days" and how it stands out on the other days.... nothing looks awry to me.. if it was way higher versus what other ones did, and often, OK that's different but it's not.. it follows the graph in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Oldies means 80s now lol...I stopped listening in the early 1980's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near term to account for the incoming rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Montioring an area of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms, across Upstate NY and PA as it tracks north and east in association with a pre-frontal trough. Cloud cover is increasing and skies will go overcast as it nears, and this throws some uncertainty into exactly when and where any potential severe threat materializes this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis indicates rebounding instability behind this rain, and CAMs hint at new convection firing and tracking east later today. No significant changes for now, though adjusted temps and PoPs in the near term to account for the incoming rain. We've seen this happen a million times before. Morning convection kills our afternoon chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: 1.) Intuition from a Real Live Meteorologist I selected six stations in the region to compare to Newark's monthly mean maximum (high temperature. That included four ASOS stations at Trenton-Mercer Airport, Atlantic City International Airport, Central Park in New York City, and Philadelphia International Airport. tossed The problem is you lose credibility as a Real Live Professional when you harass members like you did to me yesterday. I love hearing what you guys think, but the public harassment I have witnessed and the many deletions I have received when I had a question about a post of yours puts you into the unprofessional (at least on this forum) category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Newark NJ thermometer just hit 100° five days in a row – but it’s wrong https://nj1015.com/newark-nj-thermometer-just-hit-100-five-days-in-a-row-but-its-wrong/ He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below. In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat. Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. Data for HARRISON, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 97 2022-07-21 99 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 100 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 98 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 100 2022-07-24 101 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below. In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat. Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. Data for HARRISON, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 97 2022-07-21 99 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 100 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 98 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 100 2022-07-24 101 harrison was more affected by convection on thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 11AM ACY: 91 BLM: 90 LGA: 89 PHL: 89 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 87 TEB: 86 LGA: 85 JFK: 83 ISP: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Sunny with a real strong breeze in Pt Pleasant. Water is cold AF tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Just now, BxEngine said: Sunny with a real strong breeze in Pt Pleasant. Water is cold AF tho It was 75 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below. In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat. Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. Data for HARRISON, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 97 2022-07-21 99 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 100 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 98 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 100 2022-07-24 101 No one says a word when FOX is 15-20 colder than ISP on radiational cooling nights. But when EWR is 1-3 degrees warmer than other stations in the area people have a big issue with it. You have to wonder why that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 26 minutes ago, forkyfork said: harrison was more affected by convection on thursday That’s right. The heatwave wasn’t that bad theme was very active on Twitter and other sites this weekend. The dense vegetation growth since the 90s in Central Park seldom gets mentioned. This is really where the NWS needs to step in. There have been numerous posts in recent years on various websites stating that heatwaves in recent years haven’t that bad because NYC was cooler and more reliable. The NYC thermometer wasn’t in the deep shade when many of the older records were set. Record heat this afternoon: from the NY Times: Daily record high temperature, since Central Park 106°F set in Dust Bowl of 1936. Tree growth around the NYC ASOS in recent years Original condition of the site when records like 1936 were set There were several temperatures higher than 106° at our local stations back in 2010 and 2011. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below. In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat. Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. Data for HARRISON, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 97 2022-07-21 99 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 100 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 98 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 100 2022-07-24 101 I ran the numbers against New Brunswick and Harrison. The outcomes are similar, but I excluded Harrison, as there were too many missing values in Harrison’s record vs. 2 for New Brunswick’s. There may be an error (assuming there is no other explanation for the recent decoupling shown below), but it’s probably far closer to 0.5 degrees-1 degree than 2-3 degrees. Other explanations are plausible, thus I use “may.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Another rain fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 we will not hit 90 in the park today heat wave is over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It was 75 yesterday 72 according to the lifeguard board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Another rain fail Some heavy downpours in northern NJ right now, missing us as usual. Certainly a chance we could see something later today, but not getting my hopes up. I think I'll probably be watering again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Some heavy downpours in northern NJ right now, missing us as usual. Certainly a chance we could see something later today, but not getting my hopes up. I think I'll probably be watering again. Yeah I don't see much. I have seen everything this brown in a long time. Still we're barely in a drought according to monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Another rain fail But at least we're getting a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 that same section of nnj is about to get training. unbelievable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Another rain fail AM clouds and showers ruined it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Rain fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Noon Roundup BLM: 91 ACY: 89 PHL: 89 EWR: 89 New Brnswck: 89 LGA: 88 TTN: 87 TEB: 85 NYC: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Hearing thunder from that morris county cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 All the models now skunk the nyc/central nj area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaistDeepSnow Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Add HPN too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 HRRR gets a line going but too late for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I ran the numbers against New Brunswick and Harrison. The outcomes are similar, but I excluded Harrison, as there were too many missing values in Harrison’s record vs. 2 for New Brunswick’s. There may be an error (assuming there is no other explanation for the recent decoupling shown below), but it’s probably far closer to 0.5 degrees-1 degree than 2-3 degrees. Other explanations are plausible, thus I use “may.” There have been times before the current heatwave when it seems like there may have been a +0.5 to +1 variance like you have shown. But over the last few weeks, Newark has been really close to the other usual warmest sites. We could probably make a case that the variance between Newark and other warm spots back in June was wider than usual. Comparing Newark to New Brunswick can be a challenge since the Rutgers station is much more suburban by comparison. As you mentioned, Harrison has gaps in the data. Plus the Newark climate period is 1991-2020. The temperature record at Harrison only goes back to 2000. Photos from New Brunswick station. https://www.njweather.org/station/1101 Station name: HARRISON State: NJ County: Hudson County (FIPS 34017) Climate Division: NORTHERN (NJ01) Station ids: 283704 (Coop) USC00283704 (GHCN) HSNN4 (NWS LI) Latitude: 40.7481 degrees Longitude: -74.1520 degrees Elevation: 24 feet Available date ranges: Max Temperature 2000-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Min Temperature 2000-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Precipitation 1997-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Snowfall 1997-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Snow Depth 1997-01-01 - 2022-07-25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: All the models now skunk the nyc/central nj area Sigh as sprinklers again this evening it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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