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Winter 2022-23


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17 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

The problem with comparing maps, indices, and analog years is that even if the anomalies are very similar, they are usually not exactly the same. Those tiny differences matter. 

Don’t stick a fork in it. 

True, but its as close as we can get. Good luck finding an exact replica of an analog. :lol: And even if you did, the weather probably still would not evolve in exactly the same manner.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It's not even winter yet and we're already in peak MA winter form in this thread.  Should be a doozy of a year!

Fine...you can cover your eyes and close your ears all you want, but it doesn't change the fact that everything looks like sh*t right now!

Oh...you weren't talking about the weather.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree with that. I don't see any reason to think that Canada will be completely void of cold, like it is in our worst seasons. Obviously that is of more value to folks further north, but that is how it could look worse. I also don't see la nina remaining very potent this winter, either, which is another way that it could look worse.

yeah, exactly. I see no indication of a 2011-12 winter or 2019-20 winter walking through the door

seems kinda similar to last winter with very cold air in Canada, perhaps more front-loaded. we will all see some chances, there are just less the farther S you get

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20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, exactly. I see no indication of a 2011-12 winter or 2019-20 winter walking through the door

seems kinda similar to last winter with very cold air in Canada, perhaps more front-loaded. we will all see some chances, there are just less the farther S you get

Same page.

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Don’t despair, on my walk back to Union Station in DC, there are acorns all over the place blown off the trees from last night’s storm.  The acorns are plentiful and large which scientifically means it will be a cold and snowy winter….bank on it!

or perhaps the La Niña signal won’t mean a hill of beans this year, so far the hurricane forecasts based off of that signal are a bust…

And before I am attacked by Professor Eyor and others I am partially kidding….

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For those who have La Nina winter doom, the forecast is still for the Nina to generally weaken through winter. Equal chances of Nina or Neutral by the latter half. 

From the CPC ENSO discussion updated yesterday:

Quote

The most recent IRI plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, supplemented with the latest models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), concurs that La Niña is the most likely outcome during the fall and winter. While a majority of NMME models suggest that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023, forecasters are split on this outcome resulting in equal forecast probabilities for that season. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Were the all of the previous 3rd year Nina’s Modoki like this one? 

 

I haven't really got into analyzing the structure much yet....will be starting that this month, but 2000 appears to be a pretty good fit in terms of both being really far west-based.

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

For those who have La Nina winter doom, the forecast is still for the Nina to generally weaken through winter. Equal chances of Nina or Neutral by the latter half. 

From the CPC ENSO discussion updated yesterday:

 

The fact that we have been in a rather stagnant la nina state all year long makes it less likely that the IOD and ENSO are going to couple and mutually re-enforce one another to the same degree that they would if la nina had really began to blossom this summer and into the fall. I think this is part of the reason why a lot of guidance dissipates both events pretty quickly during boreal winter and think that makes the most sense, especially considering the self-destructive nature of ENSO in general.  ENSO is an acronym for El Nino Southern OSCILLATION, which at baseline is exactly as the name implies, an oscillation back and forth. It is not meant to stagnate and there  are certain atmospheric mechanisms in place to ensure that any said stagnation if fleeting. The resultant disconnect between the IOD and ENSO when the latter becomes stagnant is one of them, and the inherent dynamics of the Walker Cycle being the other prominent device that favors this oscillatory proclivity.

A crude analogy is to consider this la nina akin to a post ERC hurricane on a smaller scale in that the window of time for it to exert its most profound influence on the ambient atmosphere has past. A stagnant hurricane is less equipped to rip a hole in the ozone just as a stagnant ENSO event is not as pervasive a hemispheric driver. Tropical systems and ENSO are both ultimately self destructive to a degree...remember that.

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I think we are going to see abundant signs over the course of this cold season that this particular cold ENSO event is "washed up", so to speak, so I wouldn't necessarily bank on text book la nina climo...especially later on in the season. The seeds of el nino have been planted long before it manifests onto SST anomaly charts.

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On 8/12/2022 at 9:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't really got into analyzing the structure much yet....will be starting that this month, but 2000 appears to be a pretty good fit in terms of both being really far west-based.

There are some similar analogs to this year (-PDO, Niña, -IOD, +QBO) but they were not 3rd year triple dip Nina’s and not sure of the Niña structure in those, whether or not they were Modoki events like we have now

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On 8/11/2022 at 11:06 AM, WxUSAF said:

Having more H2O in the stratosphere will likely lead to more O3 destruction, but not necessarily at the pole pending how the circulation transports it. 

I’m curious to see if it has typical 1st year “volcanic stratosphere” effects this coming winter in the northern hemisphere or something out of the ordinary happens 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m curious to see if it has typical 1st year “volcanic stratosphere” effects this coming winter in the northern hemisphere or something out of the ordinary happens 

I doubt it as HT-HH emitted very little SO2 into the stratosphere. 

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18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There are some similar analogs to this year (-PDO, Niña, -IOD, +QBO) but they were not 3rd year triple dip Nina’s and not sure of the Niña structure in those, whether or not they were Modoki events like we have now

I am pretty confident that both la nina and the IOD are going fade relatively early on during the cold season.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am pretty confident that both la nina and the IOD are going fade relatively early on during the cold season.

I don’t think ENSO goes neutral until spring. The Niña should peak moderate around December 

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Its  been so dead  in the tropics  i figured  i would  post this. Its a quote for  Larry Cosgroves great  newsletter.

 

"And should we follow the pattern seen in the Southern Hemisphere, with more and frequent cold pool advances toward the Equator, and flip it to our side of the world, then an argument exists for a very active, and notably colder winter to the right of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast.
 
We still have time to look at pattern evolution. But if you are a fan of winter weather, you should be smiling right about now. I know I am!"
 
I think we will see  150% of  normal snow from RIC-BOS.
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You can pretty much see exactly where the ridge in the North PAC is going to want to setup this winter lol Those SSTs around the Aleutians are on fire and they are going to positively feedback into the Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridging would not be much of a surprise given the La Niña: 

 

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14 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Its  been so dead  in the tropics  i figured  i would  post this. Its a quote for  Larry Cosgroves great  newsletter.

 

"And should we follow the pattern seen in the Southern Hemisphere, with more and frequent cold pool advances toward the Equator, and flip it to our side of the world, then an argument exists for a very active, and notably colder winter to the right of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast.
 
We still have time to look at pattern evolution. But if you are a fan of winter weather, you should be smiling right about now. I know I am!"
 
I think we will see  1350% of  normal snow from RIC-BOS.

FIXED.

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