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Winter 2022-23


Ji
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14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Always a good bet.

I would disengage now if I were you.

cant...as it gets hotter and closer to July..all i can think about is winter....lets hope we get some blocking

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It's very early, but compared to last year I'd wager -

- Less blocking, even thought it was only transient last year.

- Much wetter nationally, with a stronger subtropical jet, especially early and late winter.

- I do think where I am is favored for a cool winter believe it or not. It's unlikely we'll match the coldness of the 2021-22 La Nina. Any warm up in the tropical Pacific y/y favors cold in the Southwest. It won't be wet though. There is a window in the years with matching temperature and precipitation data nationally that consistently shows a wet period in the West in Oct-Dec though. If an El Nino somehow developed, I would expect a very wet winter nationally, with no particular severe cold or heat.

The dryness last winter was mostly ignored - but it was remarkable. It's one of the stronger correlation to -PDO winters though. Something like 80% of the country was drier than average by at least 20%?

Screenshot-2022-06-15-9-29-57-PM

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5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Only about 800 more runs and we might have a better idea.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_nhem_7.png

did that change much from prior runs? Id like to see the mean trough a bit more to the west or that looks like it only spells snow for you Cape

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

did that change much from prior runs? Id like to see the mean trough a bit more to the west or that looks like it only spells snow for you Cape

No idea lol. It will show every possible pattern multiple times between now and late Fall.

I just took a look and saw what it was advertising and figured it was perfect to post in a winter discussion thread in June. B)

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3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Heading for El Nino..  el nino/-QBO is 65-35 negNAO. el nino+QBO is 50/50. We would have a great Winter last winter I think with El Nino because the -PNA December led +NAO January and February.. we were going in the other direction 

The next el nino that we have will be a modoki....take it the bank. We always have a money-shot el nino when we emerge from these multi-season cold ENSO regimes.

Probably 2023-2024 season.

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8 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

My toe hurts from kicking the can down that road.  Eventually we run out of road! ;)

I know what you mean, but I really am not doing that....the band will snap, and we will have el nino next year, if not this season.

Like I said, probably next year, which is when we could combine it with an easterly QBO.

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

I know this is more SNE-centric... but they really do have great disco in here about upcoming winter... really good discussion about everything and a really good read

 

Pretty sure Ji didn’t start this thread with good disco as the goal…

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Well lookey here! A Winter thread, lol Alright my prediction is...IF the Nina stays, 10-14" for BWI, coastal scraper and southern slider action for CAPE, and March snow for PSU, lol (albeit that part didn't happen last yea!)  

Now if it weakens, I got no clue. A triple-dip la Nina is a kick in the stones...but what can ya do?...

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The next el nino that we have will be a modoki....take it the bank. We always have a money-shot el nino when we emerge from these multi-season cold ENSO regimes.

Probably 2023-2024 season.

Man I hope so. But PLEASE don't let it be like the early 70s when we started with back-to-back ninas followed by a completely overwhelming super niño that torched everything...followed by two more la ninas. Now THAT was a nightmare scenario. Let's hope we don't see that again!

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10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well lookey here! A Winter thread, lol Alright my prediction is...IF the Nina stays, 10-14" for BWI, coastal scraper and southern slider action for CAPE, and March snow for PSU, lol (albeit that part didn't happen last yea!)  

Now if it weakens, I got no clue. A triple-dip la Nina is a kick in the stones...but what can ya do?...

Southern sliders are a miss here.

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12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man I hope so. But PLEASE don't let it be like the early 70s when we started with back-to-back ninas followed by a completely overwhelming super niño that torched everything...followed by two more la ninas. Now THAT was a nightmare scenario. Let's hope we don't see that again!

I highly doubt that...the periodicity doesn't line up....they happen about every 10-15 years...'72-'73, '82-'83, '97-'98, '15-'16. I think we are still at least a few to more likely several years away from the next super el nino.

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On 6/16/2022 at 2:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not seeing the el nino anymore, at this point, but warm neutral still has a shot.

One of the main culprits for the decline in mean snowfall around DC is that enso neutral winters used to have a pretty high probability of above avg snowfall. But in the last 30 years that’s no longer true. They’ve been mostly dreadful, even worse than Nina’s in many cases, with the exception of 2013/14. 

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On 6/16/2022 at 4:15 PM, North Balti Zen said:

Pretty sure Ji didn’t start this thread with good disco as the goal…

Maybe others haven’t noticed but Ji has been much better even last winter. He still does his thing from time to time but he wasn’t wrecking threads and was making substantive posts also. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe others haven’t noticed but Ji has been much better even last winter. He still does his thing from time to time but he wasn’t wrecking threads and was making substantive posts also. 

1 out of every 10 maybe?

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So to be real we are in kind of an uneven atmosphere- one layer vs another, and 2015-16 El Nino was within that and "given" a good Winter. It started I think ~2012-2013. I would say Strong El Nino is our only chance for major snow/cold, but in reality we need a +3.5-4.0 El Nino to even it out. We could be given blessings. 

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