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June 2022


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Warmer air will begin to return to the region tomorrow. A very warm weekend lies ahead.

Down south more high temperature records were matched or beaten. Record highs included:

Galveston: 96° (old record: 95°, 1875 and 1995)
Jacksonville: 100° (old record: 99°, 1944, 1981 and 1998)
Macon: 104° (old record: 101°, 1944, 1981 and 1988)
Mobile: 102° (old record: 101°, 2009)
Savannah: 102° (tied record set in 1981)

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -1.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.178 today.

On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.205 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.200 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).

 

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The persistent low pressure to our east has really cooled off the SSTs in the Western Atlantic. Much cooler SSTs than at the same time last year. The area is actually below normal for a change. So we get these brief warm ups followed by the trough returning to New England.


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The last 7 days of June are averaging  77degs.(67/88) or +3.

Month to date is  70.0[-1.0].      June should end at  71.4[-0.6].

Reached 80 briefly here yesterday.

Today: 76-82, wind w., s., variable skies, 69 tomorrow AM.

67*(90%RH) here at 7am.       69* at Noon.        71* at 3pm.       72* at 4pm.       Reached 76* at 7pm.   

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 85°

Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0°

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Warmer / hottter times ahead this weekend into Monday.  90s for many, especially the hot spots Sat (6/25) and Sun (6/26).  Some mid 90s in Sunday in the NE-NJ / C corridor.  Trough pushes front through on Mon (6/27) with rain showers/storms lingering into Tuesday (6/28).   Cooler/near normal by Wed (6/29).

 

Warmup begins as heights rise to close Jun 6/30, with heat potential to start the long weekend and perhaps into July 4th.  Beyond there we'll see how strong or hung up the front gets in the 7/5 timeframe.

 

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BOLD CALL ON THE GFS FOR  SAT/SUN. ........ and the total high has been at least 183 degrees for the last five runs.     Think about Newark here---not the NYC chart shown.     Spoke too soon......Newark is lower that this output!        A Chuck Meat Run or a Back Door Hot Front---because LI is hotter than Newark too.     Nutty.      Stand By for Page One Re-plate.

1656072000-jmPAHtYrQ5w.png

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A very warm weekend lies ahead. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Some of the hotter spots could top out in the middle 90s. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday.

In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 is likely this weekend. On Sunday, the mercury in Portland could make a run at 100°. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +4.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.213 today.

On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.477 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.198 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.9° (1.1° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About damn time, we kept missing out. The shower tonight actually contained some very heavy Bursts much heavier then would appear on radar

almost felt like hail that is how hard they rain was falling against my window

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The last 6 days of June are averaging  77degs.(67/88) or +3.

Month to date is  70.1[-1.1].      June should end at  71.5[-0.5].

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today: 89-95, wind sw., m.sunny, 72 tomorrow AM.

According to Rosby Wave output theory,  the heat will now be  continuous and deadly for the US, except in the PNW.     Stand-By to Sweat Up or Die.

71*(85%RH) here at 7am.      75* at 9am.      78* at 10am.      79* at 11am.   .......but back to 77* at Noon.      Finally reached 80* at 1:30pm.       82* at 2pm.     Back to 78* at 3pm.      Reached 86* at 6pm.       78* at 9pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will partly to mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 94°

Philadelphia: 92°

Tomorrow will be another hot day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

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This may be the first time that two consecutive Junes had a completely opposite 500 mb pattern. Notice the NW and NE troughs this year where the ridges were last year. The ridges in the Plains and Hudson Bay replaced the troughs from last June.


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A30B8E17-B469-48D9-A999-E2C090D2DFE1.png.ec4e9ba9b4b9f99c1826287595f15675.png

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