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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, its COC AFAIC, and I'm a troll living in my own basement.

You’ll join the dark side soon. A few more BN snowfall winters that last 6 weeks and you’ll be Methuen’s Torch Tiger.

At least we are dewing summer wx more and more.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ll join the dark side soon. A few more BN snowfall winters that last 6 weeks and you’ll be Methuen’s Torch Tiger.

At least we are dewing summer wx more and more.

I can just see him, Mitch and I Need Snow hanging out together cursing the sun

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Went to Binghamton. They got whacked with round 1 but think the boundary is much closer to here. Hopefully round 2 will perform too 

Not following terribly closely, but shame you couldn’t get on that Scranton cell. It looks nice. 

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Went to Binghamton. They got whacked with round 1 but think the boundary is much closer to here. Hopefully round 2 will perform too 

 

Where'd you go Wiz ?  looks like a good cell moved through Vestal ! 

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not following terribly closely, but shame you couldn’t get on that Scranton cell. It looks nice. 

That was one of our target areas today too :lol: 

5 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

 

Where'd you go Wiz ?  looks like a good cell moved through Vestal ! 

Started out in Oneonta and then have worked SW to Binghamton 

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46 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I can just see him, Mitch and I Need Snow hanging out together cursing the sun

I used to be that way. But then I just said eff it and started enjoying the summer activities. I really do enjoy summer now. Besides winter is getting shorter and shorter. :( 

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4 hours ago, Whineminster said:

How is that COC? It's way to cold for summer. 

68 and  partly sun was perfect mowing the dust bowl and pollen laden grass. Perfect day for outdoor chores. Fuk that heat humidity shit. It's for office workers with  AC or those who live in the water all day.  

20220601_170828.jpg

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21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

68 and  partly sun was perfect mowing the dust bowl and pollen laden grass. Perfect day for outdoor chores. Fuk that heat humidity shit. It's for office workers with  AC or those who live in the water all day.  

20220601_170828.jpg

Did you redo your lawn? Or is that Lebanon?

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That was one of our target areas today too :lol: 

Started out in Oneonta and then have worked SW to Binghamton 

My sister in Vestal where SUNY Binghamton is had some good looking hailstones.  Of course she didn’t measure (ha) but there are a couple golf balls it looks like.

6A9ACB5F-534F-4F31-976A-BE5DEBE4800B.thumb.jpeg.025a8a689eb6838eaad6d42e45602243.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s a beast :stein:

 

Dry begets dry?

Round 1 today was about 12 drops of rain.  Round 2 just came through with about 20 drops of rain.  Echoes just drying up as they reach New London county.  Let's see if round 3 can bring any real rain overnight.

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The 18z anomalies today were interesting, classic low level cold push from the maritimes.  Quite a difference from up at the summits above the inversion.  The local summits see close to normal temperatures today, while the lower elevations below the inversion suffer.

Dense, low level cold air going under the warm/moist air to the west.  Boundary being the focus for lift and rounds of convection to the west, dying as it moves into more stable air.

H85 Temp Anomaly.

1583923294_gfs_T850a_neus_1(1).thumb.png.f639e77fbea7ccb718e78c41ad8c15ed.png

2-Meter Temp Anomaly.

gfs_T2ma_neus_1.thumb.png.0a56ead3cb53bb381e64628142fbb884.png

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The 18z anomalies today were interesting, classic low level cold push from the maritimes.  Quite a difference from up at the summits above the inversion.  The local summits see close to normal temperatures today, while the lower elevations below the inversion suffer.

Dense, low level cold air going under the warm/moist air to the west.  Boundary being the focus for lift and rounds of convection to the west, dying as it moves into more stable air.

H85 Temp Anomaly.

1583923294_gfs_T850a_neus_1(1).thumb.png.f639e77fbea7ccb718e78c41ad8c15ed.png

2-Meter Temp Anomaly.

gfs_T2ma_neus_1.thumb.png.0a56ead3cb53bb381e64628142fbb884.png

Some laughed at said I was stoned, drunk when I said it was a decent day here. 2 M temp anomaly says yep I was correct here in ECT

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14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The cause is different than spring, though.  Not that anyone cares what the whip looks like. Make it stop - right?   

This is an unusual phenomenon that needs its own space/attention:  excessive -AO  

It's not as traditional looking as that which we may observe amid the winter months, however - it's actually quite bizarre.  Large vertical height anomaly nodes in the 60/...70 latitude, that have less horizontal dimensions.  If we average out the polar domain of this annotation below, it numerically produces a fantastic -AO total, ...but we don't see the R-wave scaffolding of mid winter -AOs. 

Stab at hypothesis ... this is -AO mapped over a radiatively forced/seasonal warming.  Doesn't explain how or why these intense vertical foci of heights are there ... The -AO result may in fact be less wave-mechanically a negative AO, and more just a numerical emergence of another systemic phenomenon.  I guess it doesn't matter for the summer-lorn among us... stop the whipping!  But, the mid latitudes are not getting summer so long as this below set up...

And it's capped the entire world's N. Hemisphere, so overwhelming it's really effecting the pattern underneath at mid latitudes, everywhere...

(120 hour EPS mean; 00z June 1 c/o Pivotalweather)

image.png.d29d4c19e633dddef8767d11d9e1b28c.png

The negative anomalies that garland the planet along mid latitudes is what drives the cooler appeal.  This total compression causes this westerly/ambient velocities to be way, ..way stronger than normal for this time of year... while the total compression N-->S, suppresses hugely south ( that circumpolar continuous arrow) of climate.

I mean this is so bad, I almost want it to just go true climate event and do something super extraordinary.   But alas...we likely won't get to see that science awe moment; it'll only gobble 2 week of the summer.

This isn't the same as a cut of west Atlantic low... or ensemble-line BDs typical of NE ...while west of Albany basks in Pandorian utopia spring curse... This is some kind of whack planetary problem in scope and scale.  It's noteworthy for me.

 

From my years of observations, more often than not, there always seemed to be a new unaccounted for wrinkle/fly in the ointment of things that would go wrong for realizing heat or convection in ME/eastern NE. I don't recall ever seeing "excessive -AO" being one of them. I still remember the summer of 2005 a day in July or August when there was going to be record breaking heat in Maine, much talk of triple digits, only to have an unforeseen, stout high cloud deck show up to put the kabosh on it. Probably the only time I experienced temps holding well into the 90s there despite an overcast sky.

Lately I've noticed a distinct trend away from the unusual summer-reload type patterns the GFS had in its long range for NE periodically the past couple weeks. It's now reverted to its typical behavior seen in May/Junes past.

 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The 18z anomalies today were interesting, classic low level cold push from the maritimes.  Quite a difference from up at the summits above the inversion.  The local summits see close to normal temperatures today, while the lower elevations below the inversion suffer.

Dense, low level cold air going under the warm/moist air to the west.  Boundary being the focus for lift and rounds of convection to the west, dying as it moves into more stable air.

H85 Temp Anomaly.

1583923294_gfs_T850a_neus_1(1).thumb.png.f639e77fbea7ccb718e78c41ad8c15ed.png

2-Meter Temp Anomaly.

gfs_T2ma_neus_1.thumb.png.0a56ead3cb53bb381e64628142fbb884.png

Not what one likes to see on June 1 for sure, at least if you enjoy summer. Quite the contrast to initial depictions last week of 4 day heat, basically a 40-45 degree swing. Was 98 out here today safely away from the backdoor, and I'm happy I was here vs the IZG area, hours of slate gray 50s with intermittent sprinkles. One of those blackfly and mosquito days.

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9 hours ago, metagraphica said:

Dry begets dry?

Round 1 today was about 12 drops of rain.  Round 2 just came through with about 20 drops of rain.  Echoes just drying up as they reach New London county.  Let's see if round 3 can bring any real rain overnight.

He got me again .. and you 

.08 here.
Let’s see what happens tonight . Doesn’t look overly promising 

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