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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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7 minutes ago, George BM said:

Unsure of how strong a storm it will be for the cost of the trip or are you unsure whether flights will still be available to PR?

I think it’ll be a hurricane, but that center reformation has me spooked that I’d miss the center. One thing that I think I learned from Josh is island roulette is a dangerous game.

If I land in PR tonight and things shift to a landfall in DR or the USVI there’s nothing I can do. 

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All of the obvious caveats at this range of course apply, but besides the deterministic GFS and EMCWF agreeing on the idea of a storm and a pattern than would pull it hard north, the ensembles at that range also support a synoptic pattern that would pull any Gulf storm to the north.     Certainly worth a look for now.

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39 minutes ago, high risk said:

All of the obvious caveats at this range of course apply, but besides the deterministic GFS and EMCWF agreeing on the idea of a storm and a pattern than would pull it hard north, the ensembles at that range also support a synoptic pattern that would pull any Gulf storm to the north.     Certainly worth a look for now.

Its a strong signal pattern wise.  The weekend trough and secondary trough early next week lift and there is a ridge in the west and off in the ATL.  weakness between allows this one to come north.  possible best chance for remnants here so far this season.

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Its a strong signal pattern wise.  The weekend trough and secondary trough early next week lift and there is a ridge in the west and off in the ATL.  weakness between allows this one to come north.  possible best chance for remnants here so far this season.

Unacceptable. I want my major hurricane over MBY. 

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Welcome to the peak. 

Delayed but not denied, the Atlantic basin gradually picked up in early September. Now we have multiple areas of activity with two threats to land. The last three named storms have become hurricanes, and this morning we have our first major of the 2022 season, Category Three Hurricane Fiona. So far, Fiona has exceeded expectations. 

Major Hurricane Fiona

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Fiona made its first landfall along the extreme SW coast of Puerto Rico, bringing gusts up to 113mph along the coast. The worst aspect of the hurricane, however, has been rainfall. Fiona brought catastrophic rain to much of southern Puerto Rico.

From there, it wobbled WSW, causing a second landfall over Hispaniola. Unexpectedly, not only was it minimally disrupted, it quickly intensified. This morning it looks like it is undergoing some reorganization as we see pressure continue to drop, but not much of a response by the winds, yet. 

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The forecast for Fiona now is pretty straightforward post-Hispaniola. Another trough is set to traverse the northeast and turn Fiona NE/NNE. The timing should allow Fiona to miss Bermuda, but it creates a problem for Atlantic Canada. The guidance has been producing some extraordinary solutions for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as the trough essentially captures Fiona and pulls it northward and maybe even NNW into the region. It won't be a major hurricane at this point, but the guidance shows some exceptionally deep lows as it transitions to a post-tropical system.

We'll see if that holds, but we're looking at a high end event in Atlantic Canada as currently modeled. 

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Just as Earl likely reshuffled the deck for Fiona, Fiona is likely to clear the deck for our next threat, newly designated Invest 98L. 

Invest 98L

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This one hasn't been on many radars until very recently, but it is a great example of how waves that find hostile conditions in the tropical Atlantic can find more favorable conditions once they get further west in a higher OHC and more moist environment. To be clear, there's still some dry air nearby as evidenced by arc clouds. There's also some shear imparted by Fiona's outflow. This should hold development in check for a bit. Once Fiona clears though, the upper level environment becomes highly favorable for development. That's trouble, because the departure of Fiona also allows for a more favorable landfall upper level steering pattern through the Caribbean. 

I'm showing the operational Euro here from 00z to illustrate the upper level steering pattern. It's just easier to see 98L on this than the EPS. 

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Until Fiona departs, there's not a lot of development for 98L. However, once Fiona's influence is gone we see ridging start to build in after another northeast trough. This is a significant signal, and given the current look of 98L, I feel more confident that usual that this will be a problem for somebody. 

The issue here is not only that there's likely a favorable environment for TC genesis and intensification, but that ironically, what helped keep Fiona an Atlantic Canada threat is probably going to cause this to be a bona fide continental US threat.  

There's likely to be enough ridging to build in to steer 98L west, and then troughing later next week should allow 98L to gain latitude into the Gulf. Whether that the western or eastern Gulf is unclear. As we saw with the 06z GFS, an earlier weakness could cause issues for Florida and the east coast. Again--it's too early to do much other than speculate. It's pretty clear to me though that this is a legitimate threat to land. 

Invest 97L


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Finally, we have 97L. This one isn't worth much ink because it's not a threat to land, but it does look like it's in the process of becoming a short lived TC as long as shear and dry air doesn't halt the current organizational trend. Not much impact other than on my peak season forecast. Today, I got my first MH, and I think another is quite possible with 98L eventually. 

It looks like the switch has flipped, and I still expect activity continuing into early October when we shift to homebrew season. So far, my forecast is doing very well.  

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (3)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 4 (1)

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