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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 021447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022

...DANIELLE BECOMES THE FIRST ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 43.3W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

 

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Despite a lot of handwringing a week ago about my peak season forecast, I'm feeling quite good right now. We have two simultaneous canes in the Atlantic for the first time since 2020, one is expected to be a major which gets me to 1/4 on majors, and the basin continues to gradually get better--the tropical Atlantic still remains hostile on balance, however. 

Aside from our two hurricanes (and Earl is about to go off) we have multiple areas to watch. 

Invest 95L
This one is most likely to develop, but it has a small window to become a named storm. It's heading toward cooler and more stable air. It'll be a race for a name, but the NHC has 70% odds of development. 

Atlantic Lemon
This one hasn't come off Africa yet, but it'll be coming off further south into a somewhat conducive environment. The operational guidance is lukewarm on it, but the ensembles are a bit more bullish on it getting west. if it survives the trip across the tropical Atlantic it could be another player in the western Atlantic. 

Central Atlantic Trough
The Euro has tried leading the way in showing part of a northeast trough breaking off after interacting with Earl and developing into a tropical or subtropical low. Whether this happens will impact what happens with the Atlantic Lemon and the wave after. 

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Let's talk Invest 96L, which I highlighted as the Atlantic Lemon a week ago. 

While the guidance has waffled the last week over development odds for this one, in the last 18 hours 96L has made a sizable move toward development in advance of reaching the Lesser Antilles.

giphy.gif?cid=790b761156860491e25ee9c7bf

This invest has been buoyed by a large moisture envelope that to date has kept dry air from significantly disrupting convective activity. While convection did collapse yesterday, this wave has not had the look of virtually every other wave crossing the tropical Atlantic this season. 

That said, there remains reason to be skeptical. Even in the visible image above you see issues. On the NW side you can see arc clouds shooting outward, a clear sign of dry air. To the SW, you see wind shear as the cloud tops ahead get blown away. The shear analysis from this morning shows 96L threading the needle. 

XoyN34h.gif


I don't think this one is going to fizzle out at this point, but the above does tell me that this still has the potential to sputter as it tries to find its footing organizationally. That has implications downstream as land interaction will be key to both track and intensity. The image below is busy but important. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611bba64b3e571001f4a9

This is an overlay of 00z EPS and GEFS ensemble tracks with water vapor. Once again, despite a large moisture envelope, the ever present dry air is...well...present. It wouldn't take much IMO to hold this one back, and that's basically what the guidance shows. 

There's a clear consensus, at least in this model cycle, that it remains relatively weak and heads toward the northern part of the Antilles. Places like Puerto Rico should watch this closely in case this becomes the first system of the year in the tropical Atlantic to overperform a little, which it has done so far. 

So while it has certainly made progress that may allow it to become a player in the medium to longer range, the environment is still marginal to hostile, and it has some work to do organizationally. We need to see if this organizational trend continues. If it does, that significantly increases the odds that it develops before the Antilles. 

I don't think it's really worth talking long range track right now, but this early I think all options are on the table. 

 

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