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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


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  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Time running out on the forecast, but another NS/Hurricane on the board with Julia.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (7)
Hurricanes: 6 (5)
Major Hurricanes: 4 (2)

Will Julia keep the name if it loses energy and re-forms in the Pacific? 

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On 10/11/2022 at 9:01 PM, Terpeast said:

Hmm. Worth noting 2000 and 2011 were both Ninas, and had 119+ ACE. But 1985, also a nina, finished at only 88.

Interesting to compare to 1985. A repeat of that season now would be far more devastating than 1985 turned out. It was the most expensive hurricane season for the US up to that point, but Hugo in '89 showed next level possibility in damage. With sea level rise, coastal population explosion, and inflation, those 6 US hurricane landfalls from 1985 would likely total well into the tens of billions nowadays.

These past few seasons have shown how vulnerable presently the US is to hurricane damage. The last 11 consecutive US hurricane landfalls have all been billion-dollar disasters: Ian, Fiona, Nicholas, Ida, Zeta, Delta, Sally, Laura, Isaias, Hanna, and Dorian. Four of these were Category 1 landfalls. Barry in 2019 was the last US hurricane landfall to not hit $1 billion in damage. In the 1980's, a hurricane like Nicholas would probably not even hit $100 million in damage. 

Even tropical storm landfalls now with some frequency hit the billion dollar damage mark: Fred, Elsa, Eta, Imelda, for example. 

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13 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Interesting to compare to 1985. A repeat of that season now would be far more devastating than 1985 turned out. It was the most expensive hurricane season for the US up to that point, but Hugo in '89 showed next level possibility in damage. With sea level rise, coastal population explosion, and inflation, those 6 US hurricane landfalls from 1985 would likely total well into the tens of billions nowadays.

These past few seasons have shown how vulnerable presently the US is to hurricane damage. The last 11 consecutive US hurricane landfalls have all been billion-dollar disasters: Ian, Fiona, Nicholas, Ida, Zeta, Delta, Sally, Laura, Isaias, Hanna, and Dorian. Four of these were Category 1 landfalls. Barry in 2019 was the last US hurricane landfall to not hit $1 billion in damage. In the 1980's, a hurricane like Nicholas would probably not even hit $100 million in damage. 

Even tropical storm landfalls now with some frequency hit the billion dollar damage mark: Fred, Elsa, Eta, Imelda, for example. 

You have to account for inflation in all of these calculations, though. 

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

You have to account for inflation in all of these calculations, though. 

Oh, absolutely. And I included inflation as a factor in my post. It’s definitely not the only factor though. The first list in this document from the NHC accounts for inflation: 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/dcmi.pdf

The top spots of the list still tilt towards more recent years. And comparing individual cases, inflation doesn’t fix the discrepancies. Like Ivan vs. Frederick is way too large a gap. And no way a repeat of Carol today would be just at Isaias’ level of damage. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Eventually I have to go back and grade my peak season forecast, but November has turned out to be a hot month. Coastal folks may want to watch what happens with 98L. 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I guess I'm back lol. Can't remember the last time I tracked meaningful tropical for the continental US in November. 

I am sure it has been talked about, but the pattern has been highly conducive for tropical or subtropical genesis in November--like historically anomalous. This general mid/upper level pattern has reduced shear just enough alongside a still warm western Atlantic to create brief windows for what we've seen so far this month.

Despite what we'd typically define as a hostile Atlantic, we're once again seeing just enough of a window once again for (S)TC development. This time very close to home.

As a result, we have newly designated Invest 98L. 

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k4DeCkL.png

 

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While it's still messy, it is clearly trying to develop, with surface observations showing an area of low pressure taking shape north of PR. Despite the presence of dry air (which may play a role in tropical vs subtropical designation early on), convection is trying to fire near the apparent center. The latest update from the NHC shows 70% two day and now 90% five day odds of development. That's all pretty straightforward.

As @GaWx pointed out that the start of this thread, the guidance has been nearly unanimous in showing some type of development in the SW Atlantic from this area of disturbed weather. At first, the signal had weaker development that was pushed into FL due to an anomalous ridge over the top. However, in recent runs of operational guidance (which makes sense to use since we're looking at short to medium range activity with 98L), things have trended stronger. This is in large part due to reduced projected shear allowing 98L to better organize.

bAjVsUB.png

The large and sprawling low that was modeled in recent days would have brought rain and coastal flooding that coincides with the King Tides. Now we're seeing a trend toward a tighter low, that still brings rain and coastal flooding as the main concerns but increases the risk of strong winds.

If, and this remains an open question, 98L can avoid more hostile shear as it approaches Florida, the still warm waters off the coast creates a sub major hurricane level ceiling IMO. 

TQ0NrDo.png

p4HsjL3.gif

 

There are still subtleties on the exact track, but the ensembles target the east coast of Florida before a trough comes in and sweeps whatever 98L becomes northeast. From there, it may become a strong extratropical system, but that's a discussion for another day. 

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For #1--I agree. The more organized it becomes, the more likely it takes on tropical characteristics. Obviously hurricanes are tropical. 

For #2--Agree. 

For #3--Even with a higher ceiling, I don't think this looks like a major wind event for most. I do think the coastal flooding may be serious, depending on track and timing. I don't know FL law, but my guess is that for the overwhelming majority of parts impacted by this it'll be business as usual on Election Day. If it were a major hurricane coming in (which I think is highly unlikely) it'd be a different story as you'd need to move polling locations. 

 

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