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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

While the latest deterministic models take Fiona out to sea, the WB EURO ensembles still show a spread at 0Z.

C94CDDC0-DE2E-4004-8F00-A23B789D1C3C.png

I think recon will be helpful. While OTS after the Greater Antilles is probably favored at this point, there’s a lot that can change depending on how a complicated pattern unfolds in the Pacific.

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Adding to @Weather Will's post, I want to share some of the latest ensemble guidance. While the operational guidance is good for eye candy and can be modestly helpful in identifying the major steering players like ridges and significant troughs, the ensembles are still where it's at to get a sense of track potential and sensitivity. 

06z Operational Spaghetti Plot
ygDaoon.png

 

06z GEFS

G8GHg6C.png

00z EPS
WNBrJhZ.png

I like this one in particular. This is Tomer Burg's super ensemble of the major operational ensembles. This is dated (yesterday) but does an excellent job of showing the spread in ensembles. 

Super Ensemble 12z 9/14

pllZFel.png

I'd guess if we had an image of the latest ensembles overnight, the spread would remain but the ellipse would probably lean more toward the west with the EPS showing a bifurcated range, moreso than the GEFS. The spread would still be quite large. 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Fiona missing us is going to sting. Desperate for real tropical here.

I know its a stretch but the ingredients are there.  If the trend is for a weaker/slower Fiona that allows the ridge to build over top....and a wild card trough interaction on table.  Im desperate too...lets see what 00z has to offer.

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I know its a stretch but the ingredients are there.  If the trend is for a weaker/slower Fiona that allows the ridge to build over top....and a wild card trough interaction on table.  Im desperate too...lets see what 00z has to offer.

Yea. Probably a NC scraper then off Cape Cod. Maybe we'll get lucky with this one.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea. Probably a NC scraper then off Cape Cod. Maybe we'll get lucky with this one.

Usually we need a shotgun season to have a chance at scraps.  Most likely wishful thinking on my part.  I do love tropical rains...probably more than any prospect of wind.  A good PRE followed by a rain core and some 40-60 gusts. One can dream.

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21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Usually we need a shotgun season to have a chance at scraps.  Most likely wishful thinking on my part.  I do love tropical rains...probably more than any prospect of wind.  A good PRE followed by a rain core and some 40-60 gusts. One can dream.

We haven't had a big 8" - 12" rain event in some time.

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