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December 26-27 Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I don't know.....I guess if it doesn't move all that much then perhaps it's ok. If that jumps 150 miles west, then maybe that is suspect.

The thing is, the gfs made a big jump west, but the west trend could be fact. However, now we don't know how realistic the big jump is.

I think HPC is right--stick with continuity. Stats 101 would dictate if you don't have good data, you don't use it. Stick with your old data for modeling purposes and bring out your best minds who can work with what they have and, making use of whatever reliable data they do have, see if they can do more than just say 'continuity'. Otherwise, I think you have no choice but to say the runs "never happened", stick with what they had shown, recognize the trends of the models not impacted and move forward.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

It's just best to play this very conservative right now...just so much uncertainties and inconsistencies going on that anything can happen. At least playing it conservatively you keep a realistic approach but at the same time all options are kept open. Until we start seeing all consensus and a more consistent trend towards a more powerful solution no need to really go crazy just yet.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well this will separate the GFS rip-and-reading mets from those who actually read discussions. :scooter:

Well I think ti depends how far west they are putting huge totals...it was realistic to expect pretty big totals right along E MA shore and Cape Cod before the GFS solution. I've actually been pretty bullish for Boston most of this time (maybe not 12"+, but probably warning criteria)

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Well this will separate the GFS rip-and-reading mets from those who actually read discussions. :scooter:

The last forecast a lot of people will see until XMas night was the noon forecast. Total disaster.

I worry that NCEP has not caught these errors for the last day or two and that the other models could be more right. I won't feel better until post 0z tonight.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

the last 2 pages have been filled with comedy gold.

When ever I'm having a bad day, all I've got to do is pull up the current threat threads, and I get a huge smile on my face.

Where else can people such as myself go, who are obsessed with snow, even with all of the negativity (or possible whiffed storm tracks), and still walk away with a good laugh.

Honestly, I wouldn't want to change a thing in here.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

So GEFS are taint too? La Epic NCEP disarray on probably the busiest day of the year for going to Grandmas house down south.

I have no clue, and not sure about the euro either, so take everything fwiw. They state that the gfs had problems with vorticity and RH fields up in the Dakotas. Is this why the gfs jumped?? We don't know. NCEP basically said to take these runs with caution. That's all.

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