Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Off to the People's Republic of Patheticut to visit the outlaws. WHOOOO HOOO... will be checking this on the ride down. no alcohol on Sundays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Off to the People's Republic of Patheticut to visit the outlaws. WHOOOO HOOO... will be checking this on the ride down. The HUGE downer if the GFS were to play out is my in-laws will be snowed in here. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They'll be saying "Mike sure does take a long time to clear the driveway.......". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I could see that s/w energy coming in stronger on the backside, but that was wild..lol. I really don't think it can be taken seriously until the rest of the runs show it...even EC ensembles. Yeah even with the energy on the backside it wouldn't be anything like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ryan, Darren just mentioned GFS, just threw a monkey wrench in, says good handle on intensity, Threw it all on you .LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thats not good... What they hell is going on here? I know I usually say it... but this seriously might be the biggest run of the euro for the year. If it holds/west... game on... if it goes east..game off... simple as that Phasing is probably occurring too late and this is really going to make or break for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ryan, Darren just mentioned GFS, just threw a monkey wrench in, says good handle on intensity, Threw it all on you .LOL All depends on the Euro I guess. Not really sure what to make of the GFS. It's so extreme and develops that extreme solution starting at like hour 36 I really don't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's weird the deal is totally sealed on the GFS by 36 hours with the imminent phase over the southeast. It's odd to have a model like the GFS totally alone at 36 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Crazy Uncle remains way OTS. weathafella do you mind posting the map? I think it's great that we rebuild the history we had on the other site with specific examples. So the RGEM/UK/NOGAPS remain way east. The GGEM will likely follow. NAM ticked west, GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Happy holidays to you and your family. ___ Nogaps for sake of history. That looks pretty darn close for the NOGAPS, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did the winter recon data get into the12Z suite? If so, this is probably the reason for the sudden favorable change....just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Without other global support, it seems rather silly to give more than a passing glance at the GFS, especially considering it's awful consistency this season. And the fact that in 60hr the NAM barely brings warning snows to the Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Merry Christmas folks. Ju Ju flowin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Without other global support, it seems rather silly to give more than a passing glance at the GFS, especially considering it's awful consistency this season. And the fact that in 60hr the NAM barely brings warning snows to the Canal. The whole issue is the phase around 36 hours. If we see other models dig the northern stream like the op GFS then it's time to get excited. It won't take too much longer to figure out if that phase is going to happen because it will be underway by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GGEM is looking much more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's weird the deal is totally sealed on the GFS by 36 hours with the imminent phase over the southeast. It's odd to have a model like the GFS totally alone at 36 hours lol. And with the phase everything is already negatively tilted so this allows the low that develops somewhere around FL to develop much closer to the coast and then track closer to the coast as well so it doesn't have much of an eastward movement. NAM at the same time doesn't have the phase and still has a more neutral to positive tilt with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Running UK now....back soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randylee Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 We will probably have the storm of the decade since I am down in VA beach until next Wed. Murphy's law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 That looks pretty darn close for the NOGAPS, no? For the NOGAPs sort of, but the more important factor most will usually cite is that it didn't trend west from 0z. Did the winter recon data get into the12Z suite? If so, this is probably the reason for the sudden favorable change....just a thought I don't think it did. Without other global support, it seems rather silly to give more than a passing glance at the GFS, especially considering it's awful consistency this season. And the fact that in 60hr the NAM barely brings warning snows to the Canal. Agreed. It's puzzling that the model that hit the Monday event the hardest is the furthest east of the two. What matters is the Euro and the 18z. The UK/GGEM/NOGAPS were terrible Monday. The GGEM ticked west by a decent margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GGEM definitely west and more amplified. Sfc low still outside the benchmark but the 500 low closes off further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 weathafella do you mind posting the map? I think it's great that we rebuild the history we had on the other site with specific examples. So the RGEM/UK/NOGAPS remain way east. The GGEM will likely follow. NAM ticked west, GFS lol. 60 hours... 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't really care what any of the globals besides the GFS and Euro think... the Euro because it is the Euro.. and the GFS because it is the only one that has any credibility with this storm because it is the only one remotely close to the Euro. All the other models have had garbage OTS solutions which are clearly not going to happen, and they still don't have a handle on the storm. It would only take a minor adjustment to the 00z Euro to get a 12z GFS type storm. The 00z Euro still trumps the 12z GFS IMO, but it might come west a little. Not totally buying into the very extreme 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's interesting. Even the UK looks ready to close that low awfully far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't really care what any of the globals besides the GFS and Euro think... the Euro because it is the Euro.. and the GFS because it is the only one that has any credibility with this storm because it is the only one remotely close to the Euro. That's what's funny. Until last night the GFS has been really consistent. Definitely agree with your assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z GGEM definitely west and more amplified. Sfc low still outside the benchmark but the 500 low closes off further south. Moving toward consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well, no way I'm leaving before the Euro now. Better be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Without other global support, it seems rather silly to give more than a passing glance at the GFS, especially considering it's awful consistency this season. And the fact that in 60hr the NAM barely brings warning snows to the Canal. The flag on the NAM is the MOS product brings waraning snows back to western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What does the QPF totals look like across the region on the UKIE/GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 CMC went solidly 200 miles west vs 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can't wait to see what the GEFS does shortly...should give us a decent clue as to whether or not the GFS was on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Id expect EURO to be a tick west at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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