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May 2022 General Discussion


Spartman
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I picked up another 1.23" from the latest system.  My total since March 1st is 9.75".  Sayonara to the abnormally dry conditions.  It is very wet and lush here.  Well, it's not leaf-out lush because that has barely begun, but the grass is lush.

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I picked up another 1.23" from the latest system.  My total since March 1st is 9.75".  Sayonara to the abnormally dry conditions.  It is very wet and lush here.  Well, it's not leaf-out lush because that has barely begun, but the grass is lush.

Haha our total during that same stretch is 9.76" lol. 

Ended up just under an inch total here, as high-efficient tropical drizzle/light rain fell most of the day.

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49 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Haha our total during that same stretch is 9.76" lol. 

Ended up just under an inch total here, as high-efficient tropical drizzle/light rain fell most of the day.

9.15" at the house so just behind you two.   Any lingering drought effects are in the water table now as the lawn and plants don't show any signs of impact

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1 hour ago, madwx said:

9.15" at the house so just behind you two.   Any lingering drought effects are in the water table now as the lawn and plants don't show any signs of impact

I don't have a personal gauge, but GRR is 9.52".  Most of it fell as steady rains as opposed to downpours so it feels like it's been very rainy.  

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Was just laughing as I was browsing through the Euro run from this morning.  It has us only dropping to 73 for a low temp Tuesday morning.  Almost seems unfathomable after all the cold.  That's 21 degrees warmer than our high was today lol.

Also has the first bigtime cape of the year around here Tuesday afternoon/eve.  

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Ready 2 torch

SW winds right up to the beaches? That lake wants to push in an easterly breeze component this time of year.lol

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The heavy rains the past couple of weeks have mostly been on the NE edge of the drought area in the SW part of the Plains, so they didn't do much to bust it

At this point though, the damage is done. Positive feedback loop incoming for the near-term...

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

sorry about the brown dusty climo powerball

we're about to enter paradise mode

 

I'm not complaining.

I'll take brown dusty any day over the Decembrils that have seemingly become the new norm for you guys...

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When I checked my 7-day I was stunned to see this:

paa1b.png

And today has also been changed to full sun no clouds! I'd happily trade more intense heat for something historic like this - I don't see this happening but its a major step in a positive direction :D. I had 7 days of no clouds during a period in June 2020 helped by less aircraft flying.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

sorry about the brown dusty climo powerball

we're about to enter paradise mode

Good phrase, it had to happen after these last few months.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Latest model suite is really suppressing the heat next week.  No more torch.

I'm a "the hotter the better" type guy but even I don't mind foregoing the heat if it means endless sun for 8-10 days, just as long as its comfy. I also have a feeling it would prevent a rubberband snap to the opposite as has been historically common. This GFS accumulated precip map is extraordinary:

uff79.png

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Our latest significant rain event, scheduled for Thursday/Friday, is now gone thanks to the big action down in OK/AR/KS/MO.  Today's surge of rain up into Iowa has, instead, tracked eastward to St. Louis.

Prior Euro runs did not handle northern extent well.

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I should've known TWN was full of it, yesterday it just clouded right up to a overcast after 4pm so a forecast for the day (hours really) completely busted and it wasn't even a close call. This morning was cloudy but it had partly cloudy in there anyways then became sunny.

My 14 day from said entity which is for entertainment only, shows no precip at all which is exceptionally rare for May here. It shows even for the back-half of the 14 days mostly sun. Seeing as how the engine can't even forecast clouds hours from now, I'm back to wanting the intense heat.

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Euro continues to show mid 70 dews both Tue and Wed.  With temps near 90 we could conceivably see heat index temps AOA 100 both days.  The pool of 4500-6000J/kg cape that sort of hangs around for both days is pretty insane for early-mid May.  Usually don't see big pools of heavy cape like that until deeper into June. 

Incredible change on the way to say the least.

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Since April 1st it has rained 24 of the last 36 days. The flip next week is truly remarkable, with zero precip in my forecast and July like temps.

I don’t even remember 2018 flip being this severe. Either way an entire week of dry and hot weather is fine with me. It’s been a miserable spring thus far.

 

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1 hour ago, Chambana said:

Since April 1st it has rained 24 of the last 36 days. The flip next week is truly remarkable, with zero precip in my forecast and July like temps.

I don’t even remember 2018 flip being this severe. Either way an entire week of dry and hot weather is fine with me. It’s been a miserable spring thus far.

 

Worst stretch of weather for our area that I can remember. Started a couple weeks before April 1st as well. I had two weeks off between jobs in late March and it was miserable then too. I remember being bummed having time off and the weather being so trash. Close to 8 weeks straight of cold rain and raw weather 

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21 minutes ago, King James said:

Worst stretch of weather for our area that I can remember. Started a couple weeks before April 1st as well. I had two weeks off between jobs in late March and it was miserable then too. I remember being bummed having time off and the weather being so trash. Close to 8 weeks straight of cold rain and raw weather 


Spring 2013 was pretty damn awful too, this isn’t quite as bad. Farmers will be going gangbusters, as some fields remain virtually untouched from last harvest.

the leaf out explosion will be fun to watch as well. After months of cold, overcast, dreary days next week will be good for the mental health. 

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10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro continues to show mid 70 dews both Tue and Wed.  With temps near 90 we could conceivably see heat index temps AOA 100 both days.  The pool of 4500-6000J/kg cape that sort of hangs around for both days is pretty insane for early-mid May.  Usually don't see big pools of heavy cape like that until deeper into June. 

Incredible change on the way to say the least.

I continue to wonder if some of the dewpoint progs are overdone.  Raw guidance tries to send dews into the mid to even upper 70s in some areas.  It would be exceptional to pull that off at this time of year, and not like there is much of an assist from evapotranspiration.  Getting dews around 70 or in the low 70s is one thing.  It doesn't sound like much of a difference from mid-upper 70s, but it is at this time of year.

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