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April Pattern/obs thread.


weathafella
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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ACATT till the bitter end 

You're both right?

75th percentile forecast for BDL is 78, 90th 81. So somewhere around 1 in 4 or 1 in 10 you expect temps could be warmer. But there is way more bust potential on the low side than on the high side of consensus (73). 10th percentile is 58 thanks to the backdoor potential.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

You're both right?

75th percentile forecast for BDL is 78, 90th 81. So somewhere around 1 in 4 or 1 in 10 you expect temps could be warmer. But there is way more bust potential on the low side than on the high side of consensus (73). 10th percentile is 58 thanks to the backdoor potential.

I’ll be in Dallas/Las Colinas this week hopefully seeing Tor’s and /softballs. Tuesday could be big 

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2 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

long range EURO looks lovely

NNE / mountains prob not done yet :lol: 

That D7 thing looks entirely model fabricated - there's only vague continuity from the previous day that would cause that extent of mid level implosion of heights.  

This model does this D5-7 on every run... It takes whatever's in the flow, smooths out everything around it, and then exaggerates the remainder.  

Short version, bullshit run

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That D7 thing looks entirely model fabricated - there's only vague continuity from the previous day that would cause that extent of mid level implosion of heights.  

This model does this D5-7 on every run... It takes whatever's in the flow, smooths out everything around it, and then exaggerates the remainder.  

Short version, bullshit run

I agree - EURO is on its own with the D6/D7 thing .. a bias we've seen time and time again for sure 

I'm more interested with what happens next .. solid signal for a coastal ~D9/10

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good luck on your cold and snow. Didn’t work out for Morch. Keep throwing darts 

Have zero idea what you are even talking about. Beer? Your It didn't get cold in March fail, it didn't snow in March, fail. I already posted looks nice this week. Unfortunately monkey wrench for your mid 80s Thursday 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have zero idea what you are even talking about. Beer? Your It didn't get cold in March fail, it didn't snow in March, fail. I already posted looks nice this week. Unfortunately monkey wrench for your mid 80s Thursday 

You were all over a cold snowy Morch which ended up a very mild month with little snow . I hope you guys sector and don’t door .. I’ll be in DFW

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18 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I agree - EURO is on its own with the D6/D7 thing .. a bias we've seen time and time again for sure 

I'm more interested with what happens next .. solid signal for a coastal ~D9/10

Yeah of the two ...that latter one is likely more real, but even it looks a little injected by the run.  ... blah blah.

In any case, the GEFs want a rise in the PNA out there -  ...we'll see what the sun does to fill the pattern and how/if the models figure that out. 

It seems like the models don't see the sun getting stronger, out in time, during April.  Every year I see them take the initialized heat quota, ...then spend 7 days figuring out how to scrub it from the run.   By D10 we're back before the Equinox where the model wants us to be - as though the hemisphere were not getting daily dosed by increasing radiation.   ...kidding a little here but it's annoying.  

 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll be in Dallas/Las Colinas this week hopefully seeing Tor’s and /softballs. Tuesday could be big 

Perfect timing.  Conditional risk Monday and Weds could be ok too with the fropa.  I've been down there for 16 confimed tors a few weeks ago and 6 more last week.  Let's keep it going.

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6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Perfect timing.  Conditional risk Monday and Weds could be ok too with the fropa.  I've been down there for 16 confimed tors a few weeks ago and 6 more last week.  Let's keep it going.

I fly down early Tuesday morning . That afternoon looks like high risk . I think Wednesday is east of the city though. There could be another round Tuesday night it looks like . Just hoping to get hit by one 

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Wet snow falling down in the valley now.  It's pounding again along the Spine.

Mansfield Stake up 8" to a season high of 61" of depth.  Upslope all day long.  Fun weather day.

765522173_April109PM.gif.41b7681644f587a243980613ba67b884.gif

Wind and snow combo today was just as good as some of the Winter Storm Warnings this winter, ha.

278181202_10104767482733250_884276881700

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wet snow falling down in the valley now.  It's pounding again along the Spine.

Mansfield Stake up 8" to a season high of 61" of depth.  Upslope all day long.  Fun weather day.

765522173_April109PM.gif.41b7681644f587a243980613ba67b884.gif

Wind and snow combo today was just as good as some of the Winter Storm Warnings this winter, ha.

278181202_10104767482733250_884276881700

You're at your seasonal high now? How often does that happen in April?

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43 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You're at your seasonal high now? How often does that happen in April?

Well they were low already, but near 4K you can get decent snow in April. 
I’m so past that stuff now. Time for nice weather. 

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

You're at your seasonal high now? How often does that happen in April?

At that elevation its not hard. Peak is mid-March through mid-April for snowpack above 3,000ft.  The upper 1,000ft really start to separate from the lower elevations as mean temps stay 32F or lower to keep building snowpack… while down in lower elevations mean temps are above 32F with melting.

This time of year you have the elevations maxing out on depth while there’s 0” down low.  While in January it could be 24” down low and 50” up high.  Now it’s 0” low and 61” up high.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be a real nice week especially south of pike. Thursday has the 80 chance with increased dews. Need to watch warm from position though. Let’s torch it.

I have to admit... I am surprised by that.  The last 24 hours of runs have edged the 'real' warm air ( that open expanse of the 850 mb +11 to +14C barotropic region) now into S-SW zones for Wednesday.  In fact, the Euro has the +10C/850 mb to Rt 2 even.  There are even convective knots spanning eastern NY to mid coast Maine in the QPF ... seems likely those are warm frontal instability induced.   So you're right. The boundary appears to lay through southern VT/NH. 

Nooormaly I would not dare to trust that precarious set up, not with our month of Anus climo.  However, we seem to benefit from an anomalously low amount confluence over Ontario to Quebec - considering a Lake's cutter ... The eastern end really should rage SW down to the Va Capes. Ha!  But we are only 60 hours away from 20 Z Wednesday afternoon so I guess it is what it is...  we get lucky??  The other possibility, if those convective nodes are legit, the outflow could accelerate the boundary back SW later Wednesday so..   Thursday finally doors on the Euro, tho.  It's pretty clear in the PP. With that lobe around look, nosing down from the NE, that's warm sector cancel culture.  

In the warmer scenario winning, S of that diffused boundary ( S VT/NH) the skies ~ < 60% RH in the ceilings (700 - 300 mb). That's the day to make 80 in my book.   

Saturday sneaks in a backside nape/d-sloper.  I suspect the cold is over done as usual for early next week. 

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