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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What did you guys base that off of back then?

I based it on the EPO emerging.   Essentially really strong warm anomalies in the GOAK in September.   It worked that year which was the first time I used it.

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15 hours ago, weathafella said:

I based it on the EPO emerging.   Essentially really strong warm anomalies in the GOAK in September.   It worked that year which was the first time I used it.

Nice...good call. Yea, it's tough to get a consistently hostile N PAC during an eastward biased cool ENSO event.

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Yeah...was just gonna say - that product seldom seems to vary appreciably, year to year.   Snowy and cold is our leitmotif - yet all I remember is 4 or perhaps 5 consecutive uninspired pieces of shit years that were not particularly cold or snowy.  

They're doing okay in the SW though - I guess not...

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On 8/2/2022 at 5:50 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice...good call. Yea, it's tough to get a consistently hostile N PAC during an eastward biased cool ENSO event.

Not to piss on anyone's parade but the "pacific warm pool," as it is become known in recent climate papers, is a largely anthropogenic feedback - attribution science revealing it is not be possible without an AGW factor.   

That - to me ... - isn't really the same thing as an otherwise "unique" SS stressing/distribution lending to a PDO phase state, as much as it really more like a faux +PDO.  In other words, it isn't abundantly clear whether its presence really motivate the circulation mode, as opposed to it emerging because of the latter - in that order.  

Having said that... theoretically, a warm pool wobbling around S of the Aleut... may seem intuitive to cumulatively drive higher heights down stream, so perhaps that is a "harmonic" sort of feedback -

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Something quick I threw together. Just keep in mind this focuses mainly on the QBO as a stand-alone along with possible ENSO influence. I haven’t yet sifted through the bulk of the teleconnection indices/models I usually refer to for a seasonal outlook. Time allowing I’ll try and put something together.

https://baystatewx.blogspot.com/2022/08/qbo-and-its-potential-implications-on.html?spref=tw

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On 8/7/2022 at 7:05 PM, It's Always Sunny said:

Something quick I threw together. Just keep in mind this focuses mainly on the QBO as a stand-alone along with possible ENSO influence. I haven’t yet sifted through the bulk of the teleconnection indices/models I usually refer to for a seasonal outlook. Time allowing I’ll try and put something together.

https://baystatewx.blogspot.com/2022/08/qbo-and-its-potential-implications-on.html?spref=tw

 Great…Another meh winter after a meh summeh. 

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 Great…Another meh winter after a meh summeh. 
I think it's too early to write anything off but when you take potential ENSO phase, -IOD, +QBO just to name a few teleconnections I'd lean towards an average season with potential for above average. ENSO will still be presumably weak La Nina, maybe neutral, which generally fares well for New England. Remember, you can have a temperature forecast be "above average", but it'll still be cold enough for snow most of the time.

*EDIT* I also want to add that the years a +QBO & La Niña overlapped is only a three-year dataset which is very small so I would not put a lot of stock into that. If you just look at +QBO alone the setup is rather favorable.
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Everything will depend on blocking as always. Can't be forecast very well in advance 

Also above normal winter temps are a given most years but that doesn't mean it can't snow. 

Probably from about your area points southward, but not necessarily here....as long as there is cold in Canada, which there should be, its unlikely to be an unmitigated disaster at this latitude, unless there was some incredible misfortune involved.

Agree RE above normal temps...pretty tough to pull off a below average season this day due to the relatively mild nights.

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48 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

found a huge wasps nest hanging from a branch about 20 feet off hte ground. huge winter incoming?

Nah!  The summer when the nests in northern Maine were 10-15 feet off the ground, the following winter (1982-83) saw a January thaw wipe out almost all the cover.  That winter's deepest pack, 24", was the lowest of our 9 full winters there.  The next summer most nests were near the ground and winter 83-84 was the only one in which my 61" snow stake needed an extension. 
(May not apply to SNH :rolleyes:)

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14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nah!  The summer when the nests in northern Maine were 10-15 feet off the ground, the following winter (1982-83) saw a January thaw wipe out almost all the cover.  That winter's deepest pack, 24", was the lowest of our 9 full winters there.  The next summer most nests were near the ground and winter 83-84 was the only one in which my 61" snow stake needed an extension. 
(May not apply to SNH :rolleyes:)

it's the first one that i have seen hanging from a tree branch in a very long time. usually they are attached to a house somewhere. although a couple years ago i saw one attached to the top of the outlet of a culvert pipe

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14 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

it's the first one that i have seen hanging from a tree branch in a very long time. usually they are attached to a house somewhere. although a couple years ago i saw one attached to the top of the outlet of a culvert pipe

Even more confusing during summer 1983 was the very large nest in a yellow birch sapling.  When begun, that nest was 8-10 feet off the ground, but its mass had bent the little tree into an arch that lowered the nest to within 2 feet of the dirt.  Not sure how that should be interpreted.

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4 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Whatever the winter will bring, this has not been a "meh" summer in my region. We've had two (separate) weeks with daytime highs 95 or above with drenching humidity (especially the second wee). That's not "meh".

I completely agree. I wouldn't call this Summer "Meh" here either. We've had some serious heat and long duration days over 90. I think we are at our 3rd or 4th best year with over 80 degrees days this Summer already. So... For us at least.. Its been a Scawcha! And the humidity has been oppressive. Just yesterday we had dew points here in Connecticut over 80 ( 81 and 82 in spots ). Thats is almost unheard of here. Its also been very dry. So I am hoping things will and likely could turn the other way as far as precip goes.

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3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Get a ladder and a long stick, and give it a whack.  If they sting the crap out of you, it will be a great winter.  If you escape unscathed...dead ratter.

what happens if I fall off the ladder? no winter for me?

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