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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Blue is easterly on that map, correct?

Yes. Only thing that might prevent the really cold stuff from surfacing is that so far the easterlies are having a hard time getting east of 150W or so. But even getting the good easterlies to 150W, that is far enough to cause some good upwelling into Nino 3/3.4 anyway.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Only thing that might prevent the really cold stuff from surfacing is that so far the easterlies are having a hard time getting east of 150W or so. But even getting the good easterlies to 150W, that is far enough to cause some good upwelling into Nino 3/3.4 anyway.

Keep in mind that the majority of the easterly winds being west of 150W is primarily going to warm the western zones, since the subsurface is warm out there......its really just a narrow sliver within 3.4, right around 130-155W that we have the nexus of easterly winds and cool subsurface.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only issue I have with the ECMWF forecast is it doesn't look like it's matching empirical reality early on. The Nina is def not going to steadily weaken in the next few weeks. I'd bet on strengthening looking at these graphs

 

 

ENSO_Tdepth2.gif

HovmollerAUG22.gif

What are you thinking this Nina peaks at? Maybe low end moderate, similar strength to last year then weakens by late fall? Or do you think the models could be missing something and the Nina becomes strong? The disconnect between model forecasts and subsurface data, MEI ect is interesting.

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30 minutes ago, George001 said:

What are you thinking this Nina peaks at? Maybe low end moderate, similar strength to last year then weakens by late fall? Or do you think the models could be missing something and the Nina becomes strong? The disconnect between model forecasts and subsurface data, MEI ect is interesting.

My guess is it peaks around -1 which is near the line of moderate and weak. I don't think it matters too much whether it's -0.9 or -1.2.....really only if it gets several ticks stronger than that.

I wonder if the MEI will rise next update because I have noticed the PDO is rising quite a bit in the past week or two.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My guess is it peaks around -1 which is near the line of moderate and weak. I don't think it matters too much whether it's -0.9 or -1.2.....really only if it gets several ticks stronger than that.

I wonder if the MEI will rise next update because I have noticed the PDO is rising quite a bit in the past week or two.

Complete agreement.

Also, just starting to look in depth....this is a basin wide event with a westward lean...I would group this in the hybrid-basin wide bin and given the state of the subsurface, I do not see this going full tilt modoki.

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On 8/21/2022 at 9:53 PM, It's Always Sunny said:

I added winter (Nov-Mar) ENSO composites to my website. Feel free to take a look! If you find something out of place please let me know. There are likely a few since I've been focusing on compiling them (there are quite a few!). Eventually, I also want to incorporate 500 gph  anomalies for the corresponding years for quick access and analysis.

https://weatherchest.weebly.com/composites-new.html

500 gph anomaly composites are up but they are out of order on mobile devices I recommend using desktop for time being until I fix it. Next composites I plan to add are temp/precip departures.

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8 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

500 gph anomaly composites are up but they are out of order on mobile devices I recommend using desktop for time being until I fix it. Next composites I plan to add are temp/precip departures.

What is obnoxious if the recent flip in climo periods....I like how the temp and precip maps give you the option on which climo period you use....I like using the large 1951-2010 option because it provides an expansive and consistent baseline. But the H5 plots have all shifted to 1991-2020 and there is no option to change it.

I hate that.

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47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is obnoxious if the recent flip in climo periods....I like how the temp and precip maps give you the option on which climo period you use....I like using the large 1951-2010 option because it provides an expansive and consistent baseline. But the H5 plots have all shifted to 1991-2020 and there is no option to change it.

I hate that.

You can use the subtraction comparison feature to regenerate the baselines from earlier. The only drawback is you can’t do a composite unless it’s a range of years in consecutive order. 
 

Like for example, if you wanted to compare 2021 to the 1951-2010 baseline, you’d enter it like below:

2FFDC515-2068-40BA-A217-B29073A03F54.thumb.jpeg.3c370db344b63714efa9f7bc26034f23.jpeg

 

 

There might be a way to do a composite of years against a custom range….that might be under “custom” time series….but I haven’t tried it before. 

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can use the subtraction comparison feature to regenerate the baselines from earlier. The only drawback is you can’t do a composite unless it’s a range of years in consecutive order. 
 

Like for example, if you wanted to compare 2021 to the 1951-2010 baseline, you’d enter it like below:

2FFDC515-2068-40BA-A217-B29073A03F54.thumb.jpeg.3c370db344b63714efa9f7bc26034f23.jpeg

 

 

There might be a way to do a composite of years against a custom range….that might be under “custom” time series….but I haven’t tried it before. 

I wanted to update my east-based la nina composite to add last season, but now using the 1991-2020 period makes it look washed out because some of the areas of higher heights are muted, and it enhances cooler areas.

I don't know why they don't give you the option of selecting climo period like the temp/precip charts.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Huh, that's a head scratcher of an Atlantic with a Pacific like that. I know it's a 3 month composite, but still.

Yeah its hard to analyze it when it's spitting out conflicting patterns....rarely gonna get a fat monster W ATL ridge without a deeper trough somewhere to the west.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh, you are on the ECMWF site.....Copernicus only goes to NDJ.

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57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Congrats Baffin Island

 

 

ECMWFseasonal_AUG2022.png

I like the ridge out west, the NAO looks positive but only weakly positive. That might even be a good thing with the Euro killing off the nina. I don’t get why there is also a ridge in the east, which is concerning and would be really bad for us. The NAO is positive yeah but doesn’t look like a raging strong polar vortex pattern. To my untrained eye that almost looks like a strong El Niño pattern with a raging pacific jet, yet El Niño is nowhere to be found.

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can use the subtraction comparison feature to regenerate the baselines from earlier. The only drawback is you can’t do a composite unless it’s a range of years in consecutive order. 
 

Like for example, if you wanted to compare 2021 to the 1951-2010 baseline, you’d enter it like below:

2FFDC515-2068-40BA-A217-B29073A03F54.thumb.jpeg.3c370db344b63714efa9f7bc26034f23.jpeg

 

 

There might be a way to do a composite of years against a custom range….that might be under “custom” time series….but I haven’t tried it before. 

I wasn't aware of this type of versatility however when I plot it, it still says 1991-2020 climo at the top so does that mean it is calculating 2021's values off of 1991-2020 THEN comparing it to 1950-2010 baseline?

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18 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I wasn't aware of this type of versatility however when I plot it, it still says 1991-2020 climo at the top so does that mean it is calculating 2021's values off of 1991-2020 THEN comparing it to 1950-2010 baseline?

It's comparing both to the 1991-2020 climo but that is irrelevant when they are subtracting the anomalies from eachother since the '91-'20 portion of the subtracts itself out to zero and you are left with 2021 compared to 1951-2010 as the only remaining difference.

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's comparing both to the 1991-2020 climo but that is irrelevant when they are subtracting the anomalies from eachother since the '91-'20 portion of the subtracts itself out to zero and you are left with 2021 compared to 1951-2010 as the only remaining difference.

 

Thanks, but useless for me since I need it for a several seasons within a composite that are not in consecutive order. 

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14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of my latest thoughts on ENSO and where it may be headed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/08/enso-intensity-and-structure-coming.html

Interesting to see 2020-2021 and 1970-1971 show up on Raindance's best match list, after I concluded today's blog post by highlighting those two years as the only basin-wide, moderate la nina seasons...I also like that they had a fairly high MEI, especially the former.

One of the most gratifying aspects of seasonal forecasting is seeing two forecasters arrive at similar conclusions through different methodologies....almost akin to ensembles consensus, with the forcecaster of course being the ensemble member, and the methodology being the perturbation to initial conditions.

 I think that is the holy grail for forecast confidence.

Should be a bit more festive this December.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting to see 2020-2021 and 1970-1971 show up on Raindance's best match list, after I concluded today's blog post by highlighting those two years as the only basin-wide, moderate la nina seasons...I also like that they had a fairly high MEI, especially the former.

Could hardly be different winters here.  1970-71 trails only 1968-69 for snow and 1917-18 for cold.  2020-21 had the 8th mildest DJFM and 9th least snowfall of 130 winters at the Farmington co-op.  Looks like anything from a full-on ratter to a monster snow-cold winter is in play.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Could hardly be different winters here.  1970-71 trails only 1968-69 for snow and 1917-18 for cold.  2020-21 had the 8th mildest DJFM and 9th least snowfall of 130 winters at the Farmington co-op.  Looks like anything from a full-on ratter to a monster snow-cold winter is in play.

I feel better about it not being a ratter there.

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I just realized that we have endured 9 consecutive +NAO months of February....last negative NAO Feb was 2013. 

Jesus...hell of a way to run peak climo snow period...similar to the 1980s.

We had 8 consecutive from 1988-1995....obviously the hammer dropped in 1996.

March would have the same streak going, believe it or not, if were not for 2018....for all of the talk about negative NAO waiting for March.

January 2021 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of January...2011 had been the last one.

December 2020 ended a streak of 10 consecutive +NAO months of December dating back to December 2010.

Unless this is connected to climate change in some way, you have to figure that the other shoe is about to drop.

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