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Spring 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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7 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

2018 was awesome. Went from crap weather forever March and April then on April 30th it suddenly changed to the mid 70s and from then on never went back. May 18 in Indy was warmest on record. I think every days highs were 72 degrees or higher

Looked up May 2018 at IND, and you're right.  No high was below 72.  25 out of 31 days were 80+, and every day except 1 was 80+ after May 8.

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Yep it was definitely beautiful. For sure the biggest weather flip I remember seeing in Indy ever. 3rd coldest April to warmest May. February 07 to March 07 it was extreme too if I remember right. We all know early April had that killer freeze though

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somewhat below average is tolerable at this time of year, especially if it's sunny.  It's the days that are like 15 or 20 degrees below average that suck.

Its not tolerable IMBY because below avg doesn't equal sunny unless its Jan/Feb. The last thing I need here is a NW flow!!

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18 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

2018 was awesome. Went from crap weather forever March and April then on April 30th it suddenly changed to the mid 70s and from then on never went back. May 18 in Indy was warmest on record. I think every days highs were 72 degrees or higher

It sucked. Cold garbage through April then the jet went to Canada, no :twister:season to speak of.

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I don't want to jinx it, but it does look like another brief "torch" is possible at the very end of the month, at least for the western parts of the subforum.  Could support some severe WX with one of those transient flat-topped/zonal ridges.  Prospects of prolonged warmth in early May still don't look good though.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

I don't want to jinx it, but it does look like another brief "torch" is possible at the very end of the month, at least for the western parts of the subforum.  Could support some severe WX with one of those transient flat-topped/zonal ridges.  Prospects of prolonged warmth in early May still don't look good though.

 

18z GFS says "don't be do sure!"

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

 

18z GFS says "don't be do sure!"

I'm going with the Euro, but we'll see.  GFS is often too flat.  Early May doesn't look good on any of the ensembles, but there might be one warm day towards the end of April before Hudson Bay high wins out.

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11 hours ago, frostfern said:

I'm going with the Euro, but we'll see.  GFS is often too flat.  Early May doesn't look good on any of the ensembles, but there might be one warm day towards the end of April before Hudson Bay high wins out.

No spring again this year.  When it flips to summer, we are going straight to 80s and the green up will be overnight again.  Lately fall does the same thing.  Winter switch flips and we go from sustained 70s/80s to 40s.

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GFS and Euro are back on board with a brief zonal severe threat around the 30th, sandwiched between typical trough patterns.  Now that I mention it again it will probably be taken away again.  Sad that is the only possible interesting thing to look forward too.  This current warmup looks like a complete dud as far as any storms in my area.  ZZZZZZZ......

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GFS and Euro are back on board with a brief zonal severe threat around the 30th, sandwiched between typical trough patterns.  Now that I mention it again it will probably be taken away again.  Sad that is the only possible interesting thing to look forward too.  This current warmup looks like a complete dud as far as any storms in my area.  ZZZZZZZ......

May looks cold too. Typical last several years.


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On 4/21/2022 at 7:57 AM, hardypalmguy said:

No spring again this year.  When it flips to summer, we are going straight to 80s and the green up will be overnight again.  Lately fall does the same thing.  Winter switch flips and we go from sustained 70s/80s to 40s.

Id have to dig deeper to see if this is just mind games but I think your right 

Winter has seemed to drag on until mid May and then its 70F at 6am and muggy 

Septembers have been extension of summer, mid Octobers above average with 70s and 1 week later its 35F with wet snow 

 

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5 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Id have to dig deeper to see if this is just mind games but I think your right 

Winter has seemed to drag on until mid May and then its 70F at 6am and muggy 

Septembers have been extension of summer, mid Octobers above average with 70s and 1 week later its 35F with wet snow 

 

The new 30-yer averages do give credence to the feeling that the start/end of seasons has shifted forward about 1 month, with April trending cooler and October trending warmer.

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