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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Hazey
Hazey

I’m think 10 might be attainable. We are in the heaviest of the snow and it’s adding up quick. Took a snap out the window #NovaScotiaStrong

dendrite
dendrite
dendrite
dendrite

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wasn't the blizzard the 13th? My memory is fuzzy but I remember that was a good month

3/8 was the rain to snow bomb. I don’t think blizz statements were posted, but a lot of the interior had 1/4SM vis with 40kt gusts for over a few hours that evening…some TSSN too. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

3/8 was the rain to snow bomb. I don’t think blizz statements were posted, but a lot of the interior had 1/4SM vis with 40kt gusts for over a few hours that evening…some TSSN too. 

There was another storm on 3/12/05 but it was nowhere near a blizzard. Maybe he was thinking of that one. It was actually a storm trying to escape east and dumped a large area of 8-12” over the interior with a bit of an IVT enhancement. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe but I would keep an eye open as this isn't set in stone. That's not a bad look

index (8).png

That’s a cutter look. Prob a deep wrapped up storm up in Ontario somewhere with that H5 plot. Behind it around 3/15 is the window I’d be looking at. 

 

 

6E27B555-F55E-42AB-A12F-8F73D8256A7C.png

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

3/8 was the rain to snow bomb. I don’t think blizz statements were posted, but a lot of the interior had 1/4SM vis with 40kt gusts for over a few hours that evening…some TSSN too. 

Ok just looked on Ewall. Now I remember that then the 984 on the 13th added a 10 to 14 down here. I remember that one was dryer. That's the one where an old lady hit the rocks by my driveway, so I offered to drive her and her dog, full car of groceries down our hill to the flats. Got in the car and started down the hill only to find she had NO Brakes, hit the Ebrake and slammed it into park and we slid sideways down the hil. Got her off the road and a ride from a passing truck. On my way back up the hill a car came flying down swerved and hit the hill on the side of the road and Dukes and Hazard style flew past my head by about 3 feet and landed back in the road. Quite the day. This year during the blizzard another car wrecked into rocks at the bottom of my hill. That makes 5 consecutive years. That hill is brutal as it's a blind drop to a stop sign. The people at the bottom of the hill put up huge boulders as their house was hit 3 times lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It feels tropical walking out to a temp above freezing. 
 

33°

Warm sector bust going on today though ... 

I haven't been paying much attention to the details, admittedly, but the general synoptics offered by most guidance I've seen ...didn't appeal like we'd be stuck with the "spilled latex on the highway" look on hi res satellite.  

Sometimes ( hypothesis ...) I've noticed this about/when in these high velocity flow scenarios, where the warm advection takes place, but seems to perhaps be 'too fast' - it out paces the Eikman (ch spl) drag effect?   That cold lower saturated fog miasma, needs some special scouring the sun is just slightly too weak to do on it's own, yet the sounding is protecting the surface.  It's almost like a stain on satellite. 

Whatever it is the strands this paste in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere ..it doesn't help that we're drilling mid level cloud swaths over top, either.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

There is a mid and U/A clearing punching in from the WSW though...  Roughly SYR-PIT at dawn and it's leading edge is already knocking on the door of ALB.  

I wondering, when it unlids eastward if it just exposes this static cling on the bottom, or if it arrives with a t-spike and some breeze.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

It's really hard to ignore the vast deconstruction of the EPO handling that's insidiously claimed the otherwise favorable look we had been erstwhile tracking.

It seems to erode ... slowly, under the radar, spanning five days ... Now, both the EPS and GEFs ( centered on day 10 ) have a dying EPO ridge receding back toward Kamchatka... with a zonal, velocity rich flow, spanning the entire hemisphere from west of the Dateline to NS.

    ( ssh...sometimes zonal flows precede subtropical ridge expansion. That's synoptic 101)

The previous "optimism" was based upon the climate behavior of -EPO's tending to fade into +PNA's... That would be a segue into a storm potential..etc..  EPS loads cold... PNA sends amplitude underneath.  Boom. 

But this has suffered ( maybe?? ) seasonal wave length - seems a bit early to make that assumption. But this is situation either way that will dump cold into Canada, but then an unattended -PNA circulation mode may not bring it south...nor serve any means to amplify... It just changes everything.  The other aspect I'm hypothesizing is that the speed/mass balancing of the hemisphere screwed mechanically ... like it tunneled under and abandoned.

Both operational Euro and GFS ( 00z ), average about 3.5 day periodicity between cold waves and warm sector oscillations.   With nothing but different hobby engagement worthy events separating, through day 10. 

Honestly... I did post reticence to the March mid month period last week.  I cited the fact that EPO signals may not carry the same telecon correlation at this time of year, as they do DJF.  It's just that the PNA aspect intervened and sort distracted the look ... Either way, the EPO is not at this time, modeled to subsequently lead a +PNA of sufficient anything..

Nothing's happened yet.  We're still going to have plenty of late season cold loaded nearby over Canada.  And the 06z GFS ...which I'm tossing pending anything from anyone or source that concurs..., shows if nothing else, 'how' it can happen in a butt bang pattern.

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yea I remember that. It missed us south. 4/8/95 I think. It was after that ridiculous cold outbreak we got on 4/5 and 4/6

Its been since 1997 that there was an area wide event in very late March or April. I mean double digit( or at least 8 inches) snows to the valley floor. They have missed northern CT and much of southern mass to the south and north

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The only thing epic about this March so far is how bad it has been. Maybe mid-month it finally turns around and we can get a couple weeks of a grand finale on the slopes. 

Biggest week of the winter for NNE from Friday to Friday but ok

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