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Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.


Typhoon Tip
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Guys ... Euro run is within the latitude of noise/margin for error for this range with some to even spare.

There's really no need for reactionary -

Aside, I bet dimes to donuts it's a pube south and outlier wrt its ens mean.   The GEFs/oper GFS is my package of choice for this day.

We'll see what future cycles do... 18z Euro goes tick S more, then tomorrow it goes back ... blah blah ..rinse repeat XANAX - thank you for playing the d-drip two step

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Just now, PhineasC said:

The last cutter was almost as bad here.

At least in the last one, the snow had be pre-conditioned for a melt out. We had days above freezing before that brief arctic shot plus a mid February sun angle working on the pack....so the snow had ripened and lost it's crystal structure. So once the arctic shot departed and we got into that cutter, the snow was ready to melt out quicker.

What made the Xmas 2020 cutter so bad was we didnt get any preconditioning and we were at solar minimum near the winter solstice....yet it wiped out 2" of water equivalent pack like it was nothing.

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Opening bid from NWS... pretty strong guidance support for this

Eastern zones may pick up an additional 1-2" on top of this 7-7pm map

Nice widespread event, it's been a while...

StormTotalSnowWeb1.thumb.jpeg.aac6ad683378b4c8a59cf29886ac0271.jpeg

 

that 4-6" band down there could be the higher impact, too, with a mix of IP/ZR integrating that at 27 F

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH has had 10 below normal....the only differences from Ray's list was ORH was AN in 2020-2021 and 2016-2017.

This is why I make fun of Scooter with all of the regression crap.....I'm sure 04-05 and 14-15 skew the actual 22 year mean upwards, but its not as extreme as he thinks just off of the coast.

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anyway...I'm happy for everyone getting a lot of snow. It's been a frustrating year for some so just venting a bit. Carry on with your SNE snowstorm. :weenie:

I just ended winter for us, I just purchased a new 2022 John Deere S240 fully loaded with 42" deck, 44" blower, Enclosure, Bagging system, Weights and Chains.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man that map and the placement of the cities and those range values. Woof.

Not one of our higher-stakes nail-biting KU's, but kind of nice to have a relatively stress-free leadup for a change.

And (I added above): eastern zones may see an addition 1-2" after 7pm

Also as Tip just posted: arguably worse impact of IP/ZR and freezeover in southern zones

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Anyway...I'm happy for everyone getting a lot of snow. It's been a frustrating year for some so just venting a bit. Carry on with your SNE snowstorm. :weenie:

This has been a very strange winter for the NH Capital region. We’ve either been too far north, or too far south for nearly every storm for decent snows. I could use a nice Norlun trough dropping 30” over a 48 hour period please!


.
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Just now, SnowGiant611 said:


This has been a very strange winter for the NH Capital region. We’ve either been too far north, or too far south for nearly every storm for decent snows. I could use a nice Norlun trough dropping 30” over a 48 hour period please!


.

Yea, from me and up through MHT, CON are pretty much in the same pork zone this year.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I make fun of Scooter with all of the regression crap.....I'm sure 04-05 and 14-15 skew the actual 22 year mean upwards, but its not is extreme as he thinks just off of the coast.

To be fair, just counting AN and BN seasons doesn't do it justice....at least for ORH. The BN seasons are not nearly as far below normal as the AN seasons are above normal. ORH has had 7 seasons at least 25" above normal since 2000 while they have only 3 that are at least 25" below normal. So it's basically been more than a 2 to 1 ratio of blockbusters to true ratters.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least in the last one, the snow had be pre-conditioned for a melt out. We had days above freezing before that brief arctic shot plus a mid February sun angle working on the pack....so the snow had ripened and lost it's crystal structure. So once the arctic shot departed and we got into that cutter, the snow was ready to melt out quicker.

What made the Xmas 2020 cutter so bad was we didnt get any preconditioning and we were at solar minimum near the winter solstice....yet it wiped out 2" of water equivalent pack like it was nothing.

Had to give my boy his sled early that Christmas so he could actually use it before our 21 inches was wiped out. His first taste of true winter disappointment.

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL I would honestly rather that, than a foot storm that lasts the entire season....but just me.

Me too...living inside 128 with all the cars and trucks blackening the snow 10 minutes after it falls...at that point I would rather put it out of its misery.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Had to give my boy his sled early that Christmas so he could actually use it before our 21 inches was wiped out. His first taste of true winter disappointment.

At least that was one benefit of being a meteorologist and a dad at the same time....knowing that Xmas day was porked for trying out new sleds. :lol:

 

What are your thoughts on this one over performing? I kind of like someone to score a 12-15 spot where the quasi-stationary banding forms just north of the ML warm front at the same time it is running into a lot of resistance (i.e. stalling or slowing for several hours)...so a little higher than a typical SWFE jackpot zone.

My thoughts have been near the MA/NH border for that to happen...maybe pike region gets in on the southern part of that jackpot zone....maybe extends up into S ME on the northern side...hard to pinpoint just yet.

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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Not one of our higher-stakes nail-biting KU's, but kind of nice to have a relatively stress-free leadup for a change.

And (I added above): eastern zones may see an addition 1-2" after 7pm

Also as Tip just posted: arguably worse impact of IP/ZR and freezeover in southern zones

Yeah, I've said on here a bunch of times that these are my favorite kind of events, down to even the timing. I love a good predawn start and AM thump of wet WAA snow, 6-10". Low stress and high enjoyment. Hopefully I can get out of my russian lit section on Friday at 10 am LOL

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I just ended winter for us, I just purchased a new 2022 John Deere S240 fully loaded with 42" deck, 44" blower, Enclosure, Bagging system, Weights and Chains.

if you have any kind of slope on your driveway, throw a couple extra weights on the back. that blower up front is pretty heavy. my chains chew up my driveway nicely when the rear tires slip, which happens frequently-I only have 2 weights, and the dealer doesn't have any more in stock-backordrered.

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

you can extend that zone right down here and probably more SW

Yeah it goes right down 495 (north of pike) toward ORH and back to N ORH county. Those areas are well below normal for snowfall to date.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least that was one benefit of being a meteorologist and a dad at the same time....knowing that Xmas day was porked for trying out new sleds. :lol:

 

What are your thoughts on this one over performing? I kind of like someone to score a 12-15 spot where the quasi-stationary banding forms just north of the ML warm front at the same time it is running into a lot of resistance (i.e. stalling or slowing for several hours)...so a little higher than a typical SWFE jackpot zone.

My thoughts have been near the MA/NH border for that to happen...maybe pike region gets in on the southern part of that jackpot zone....maybe extends up into S ME on the northern side...hard to pinpoint just yet.

Agreed on the quasi-stationary aspect. It's a lateral band as it pushes into SNE, but then doesn't seem to make the full run through the region and starts to slide east. That makes the standard 6-10" not really useful as a forecast.

It's hard to toss the EPS when it's been so damn consistent on the MA/NH border for days now. 

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I make fun of Scooter with all of the regression crap.....I'm sure 04-05 and 14-15 skew the actual 22 year mean upwards, but its not as extreme as he thinks just off of the coast.

 

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To be fair, just counting AN and BN seasons doesn't do it justice....at least for ORH. The BN seasons are not nearly as far below normal as the AN seasons are above normal. ORH has had 7 seasons at least 25" above normal since 2000 while they have only 3 that are at least 25" below normal. So it's basically been more than a 2 to 1 ratio of blockbusters to true ratters.

I get that....but that is more a factor for ORH....I only have two insanely above average seasons, 04-05 is offset by 11-12.

I will crunch the numbers when I can.

Like I said, I am sure I am a bit above average due to 2014-2015, but its nothing outlandish.

 

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Winter storm for the 25th of February is imminent.
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