Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,302
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    grpigweed
    Newest Member
    grpigweed
    Joined

Cure my SE trend hangover event 2/21-2/22


Baum
 Share

Recommended Posts

welp. I may have ended the SE trend with this thread:

TO SUM UP THIS STORM, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THE HIGHEST   
(4-8") OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-90, WITH LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS   
BUT AN INCREASING ICE POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE.   
GIVEN THE RECENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODEL PROGS OF THIS SYSTEM,   
THERE IS STILL A MODEST DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THIS FORECAST.- Lacrosse, WI:yikes:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, madwx said:

06z NAM gives us about 18 straight hours of sleet, with it still going at the end of the run.  Only about .2 of liquid equivalent accumulation so would be light overall  better than freezing rain I'd say

That’s a lot of sleet time but yes better then ice. I’m actually happy for a rain event definitely better then ice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DVN AFD mentions possible ice storm on Tuesday.

TUESDAY COULD BE MESSY, WITH A SCENARIO OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN   
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE SFC   
LOW, UPPER TROF MIGRATION AND POSSIBLE IN-WRAPPING DRY SLOT, MOST OF   
THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING OUT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY TUE EVENING.   
CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE DVN CWA MAY GET A RANGE OF   
0.05 TO 0.18 INCH OF ICE, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET ACCUMS AND UP   
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. BUT WILL HAVE TO   
WATCH IF THE WETTER AND MORE DEVELOPED/DEEPER SFC LOW MODELS VERIFY   
THAT WOULD PRODUCE HIGH ICE AMOUNTS, AND POSSIBLY QUICKER TOP-DOWN   
DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TUE AFTERNOON ALONG AND   
NORTHWEST OF A IOWA CITY TO WEST OF DUBUQUE LINE. THE WETTER ECMWF   
EVEN IF IT HOLDS ON RAIN LONGER, MAY PRODUCE OVER A HALF INCH OF   
RAINFALL IN SPOTS ON FROZEN GROUND PRODUCING PONDING AND RUN-OFF.   
THE EURO WOULD ALSO PRODUCE A LOCALIZED SWATH OF HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS   
OF ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA GENERALLY WEST OF A DUBUQUE TO ANAMOSA   
IA LINE. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS, PRECIP AND   
BOUNDARY MOVEMENT ALL AFFECTING VALUES, RANGES COULD BE FROM THE 20S   
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This what DLH is showing in their weather story boards today. North trend of snow axis setting up a swath of snow between the Twin Cities and DLH. Looking at a mix of synoptic, and LES for the head of the lake across the south shore. Gusty ENE to NE winds should make this a little interesting, but I'm not expecting much more than 3-6" here in town blowing all over the place. Depends on what the lake has to offer, overall.

Feb 21 snow.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The wild card for me is the lake ice situation. Quite a bit out there, but the middle of the lake is still open. With a long fetch expected from the ENE (pretty much the whole lake), that will bring in more moisture that will overrun the ice here on the west side. Essentially the lake forms its own WAA situation as the milder, moister air overruns the colder icy surface. That usually means I end up doing pretty well on the shore for LES than I would typically see when there is no, or limited ice. Even under this scenario, not expecting much anyway, like I stated above. But the lake being what it is, anything can happen.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Euro ice for Wisconsin 

image.thumb.png.a7b7976057525dc0a3de478a4acc2a38.png

That is alot more ice than what Weathernerds was showing.  Would be catastrophic for the power grid if that verifies, especially with the 35-40 mph wind gusts Tuesday afternoon.  Good news here is that the euro and the UKMET have Cedar Rapids above freezing when the main show starts.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...