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Cure my SE trend hangover event 2/21-2/22


Baum
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going to throw my hat in to the ring and start a thread. It's been a while. Also been awhile since we've seen a sw low eject and strengthen. Well. this ain't it either. Rather majority of models show an overrunning moisture feed over a decent baroclinic zone producing snow/mix/ and rain . As of now main focus on northern tier of forum, but let's see where it goes. Anything to bring an about face to the southeast and weaker games we've seen forever.

Or as a pro who shall remain nameless  puts it:

"It’s not even all that much of an overrunning event, but more-so the development of an actual storm system due to the interaction of a wave ejecting from the Baja and another wave with the main trough coming through the West." 

either way, let's hope for a good outcome. 

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This one likely has the best shot of ending up further north to some degree when compared to GHD3 and the current storm system, given the setup and trough orientation on paper currently.

It’s not even all that much of an overrunning event, but more-so the development of an actual storm system due to the interaction of a wave ejecting from the Baja and another wave with the main trough coming through the West.


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  • Baum changed the title to Cure my SE trend hangover event 2/21-2/22

Obviously will depend on details of how the upper air pattern evolves, but call this a gut feeling or whatever, I don't think it's going to be easy to get the front back north of here after it passes through around Monday. 

Regardless of what happens, hopefully somebody cashes in.

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NWS thoughts…


Monday-Wednesday...This portion of the forecast will be garner the
most attention in the coming days as models have been rather
consistent in bringing a prolonged appreciable snowfall to the Upper
Midwest. A system still churning in the eastern Pacific will drop
southeast along the Rockies Saturday through Sunday. Additional
cyclogenesis will take place over WY/CO/KS Sunday night into Monday
while enhanced isentropic lift broadly spreads east across the
Northern Plains through the Great Lakes. This is likely to have
snowfall develop Sunday night into Monday across MN and WI while the
system slowly develops and lumbers east into the mid-Mississippi
River Valley. This system looks to have two appreciable moisture
sources: Pacific moisture being dragged along and in advance of the
system and tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture northward towards the
Upper Midwest. Given the strong dynamics of the system, its broad
swath of moisture, and its slow forward speed within a pivoting H5
trough to enhance lift, there`s many ingredients in place to
indicate that a prolonged event (early Monday through Tuesday
evening) of accumulating snow is rather likely. There`s still plenty
of model solutions out there with varying snowfall accumulations and
also where those accumulations will be placed, in addition to that
there will be breezy conditions with this system which will
exacerbate winter weather impacts. Therefore, it is too early to
speculate with high confidence snowfall amounts and impacts. These
elements should become clearer over the coming days to give more
details into the forecast.
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1 hour ago, Natester said:

Well, if there's one thing, this doesn't look to be a significant ice storm for my neck of the woods.

The qpf in the ice zone does look to be on the lighter side, but that should actually mean more efficient accretion of what does occur.  Not wasting to runoff.

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