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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


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56 minutes ago, yoda said:

What are the ARIs that LWX AFD talks about?

Average Recurrence interval.

It is funny to see the AFD talk about widespread 1-3” with lollis to 4-7”, and then have the HRRR runs come in with virtually nothing for the metros.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Average Recurrence interval.

It is funny to see the AFD talk about widespread 1-3” with lollis to 4-7”, and then have the HRRR runs come in with virtually nothing for the metros.

 

 

It would seem no matter where you are, this has extreme bust or boom potential. Knowing our area I would side with bust atm versus boom. 

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34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Average Recurrence interval.

It is funny to see the AFD talk about widespread 1-3” with lollis to 4-7”, and then have the HRRR runs come in with virtually nothing for the metros.

 

 

Various models this week have had anywhere from 2-4" for my area this week from both events it would be a total kick in the gnads to walk away with a big goose egg but it's certainly possible 

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Average Recurrence interval.

It is funny to see the AFD talk about widespread 1-3” with lollis to 4-7”, and then have the HRRR runs come in with virtually nothing for the metros.

 

 

But I love me an ominous-sounding AFD, and this afternoon's was a good 'un. Standard deviations! Higher magnitudes of forcing! One to five-to-ten year ... event! (Just a "hint," though.) Area of greatest concern! A new one: "hydrophobic." All it missed, was "lollipops." But I guess that's more a snow thing?

This is NOT to poke fun at the forecasters at Sterling or the AFD's author! They are fantastic. I'm just a connoisseur of AFD's -- some of them are little works of art, I've saved Dewey's before PD2 somewhere -- and I always like the ones when the writer brings in a bit of drama.  

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AFDs used to be a lot more interesting, varied and idiosyncratic back in the 1990s. A model "forecasting mins for planet Venus". "I just shake my head at the LFM." 

 

Nowadays they have to stick with their template: synopsis, short term, long term, and all the IDGAF stuff (aviation, marine, tides) at the bottom. All kind of samey,

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2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

AFDs used to be a lot more interesting, varied and idiosyncratic back in the 1990s. A model "forecasting mins for planet Venus". "I just shake my head at the LFM." 

 

Nowadays they have to stick with their template: synopsis, short term, long term, and all the IDGAF stuff (aviation, marine, tides) at the bottom. All kind of samey,

Haha. I'd love to read some of those, didn't start till the 00s. AFDs were (are) a huge part of teaching myself about weather. Hit the glossary links and googled stuff etc.

I still think they can be entertaining. I religiously read Tides/Coastal Flooding. Aviation is often a good synopsis, too. However -- I do really miss WOODY! I could tell his writing style in a sentence or less :lol:

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Yes, Andy "Woody!" Woodcock, he was a trip.  I occasionally go to other WFO's to check out their AFD's - some can get very wordy/technical, I especially remember the Taunton (now Boston/Norton) office when there would be a coastal storm in winter or a tropical system in summer, the discussion was a bit like "War and Peace"!

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Looks like Tuesday afternoon may be our last chance for some storms or even severe storms for the next 10 days or so -- from this afternoon's AFD:

 

With southerly flow and moisture return ahead of a cold front
Tuesday, temperatures will soar toward the low 90s for most
locales. PWs will increase through the day to near 1.75-2" east
of I-81 by the evening. Profiles show a decent overlap of CAPE
in the -10 to -20C layer on soundings, so there could be a large
hail threat in combination with a damaging wind threat in any
thunderstorm. There could be two rounds of thunderstorms: 1)
Along a lee-side pressure trough near and east of the Blue Ridge
and 2) With the frontal boundary itself. There is also
noteworthy shear for this time of year (40-50 kts of bulk
shear).
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On 7/9/2022 at 2:58 PM, batmanbrad said:

Yes, Andy "Woody!" Woodcock, he was a trip.  I occasionally go to other WFO's to check out their AFD's - some can get very wordy/technical, I especially remember the Taunton (now Boston/Norton) office when there would be a coastal storm in winter or a tropical system in summer, the discussion was a bit like "War and Peace"!

Growing up in southeastern New England, Walt Drag's AFDs from Taunton were always a great and informative read in advance of any coming storm.

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like Tuesday afternoon may be our last chance for some storms or even severe storms for the next 10 days or so -- from this afternoon's AFD:

 

With southerly flow and moisture return ahead of a cold front
Tuesday, temperatures will soar toward the low 90s for most
locales. PWs will increase through the day to near 1.75-2" east
of I-81 by the evening. Profiles show a decent overlap of CAPE
in the -10 to -20C layer on soundings, so there could be a large
hail threat in combination with a damaging wind threat in any
thunderstorm. There could be two rounds of thunderstorms: 1)
Along a lee-side pressure trough near and east of the Blue Ridge
and 2) With the frontal boundary itself. There is also
noteworthy shear for this time of year (40-50 kts of bulk
shear).

      I will cautiously share some of LWX's optimism, as I kind of like what I'm seeing on the CAMs (I'll ignore the NAM Nest Howard County split....) in terms of storms forming along what appears to be the lee trough in the late afternoon Tuesday in an environment with with good instability and shear.

 

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I wasn't really counting on a tornado threat tomorrow... but LWX has it in their afternoon AFD 

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes region Tuesday.
A low pressure trough of low pressure should set up on the
leeside of the mountains late Tuesday morning and into the
afternoon. Winds will increase out of the south to south-
southwest, leading to increasing warmth and humidity where
temperatures will climb into the 90s with dewpoint temperatures
punching into the lower to middle 70s. This will be the fuel for
the thunder that is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. CAPE values will rise into
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The combination of this CAPE and
some added wind shear as mid-level energy sweeps in from the
northwest will get developing thunderstorms to possibly become
severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing any one of the severe weather aspects such
as flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes. SPC has the northeastern one-third of our region in
the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Depending on additional model data late this afternoon
and this evening, this area may be brought farther south and
east into eastern Virginia and parts of southern Maryland. The
timing on any severe thunderstorms on Tuesday will be from mid-
afternoon through early evening, especially for the metro areas.
The actual cold front should pass through the region later
Tuesday night, perhaps an hour or two before daybreak on
Wednesday. Afterwards, the front could stall near the Virginia
and North Carolina border on Wednesday.
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1 hour ago, yoda said:

I wasn't really counting on a tornado threat tomorrow... but LWX has it in their afternoon AFD 

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes region Tuesday.
A low pressure trough of low pressure should set up on the
leeside of the mountains late Tuesday morning and into the
afternoon. Winds will increase out of the south to south-
southwest, leading to increasing warmth and humidity where
temperatures will climb into the 90s with dewpoint temperatures
punching into the lower to middle 70s. This will be the fuel for
the thunder that is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. CAPE values will rise into
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The combination of this CAPE and
some added wind shear as mid-level energy sweeps in from the
northwest will get developing thunderstorms to possibly become
severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing any one of the severe weather aspects such
as flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
tornadoes. SPC has the northeastern one-third of our region in
the Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Depending on additional model data late this afternoon
and this evening, this area may be brought farther south and
east into eastern Virginia and parts of southern Maryland. The
timing on any severe thunderstorms on Tuesday will be from mid-
afternoon through early evening, especially for the metro areas.
The actual cold front should pass through the region later
Tuesday night, perhaps an hour or two before daybreak on
Wednesday. Afterwards, the front could stall near the Virginia
and North Carolina border on Wednesday.

           As I said yesterday, I like tomorrow, especially for central MD.      We'll have good timing, moderate forcing, moderate instability, and decent deep layer shear.     The tornado threat isn't huge, but the forecast soundings do show some turning of direction in the lower-levels, so I would agree that a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

  Things continue to look active for the late afternoon / early evening period.    SPC has added an ENH to the DC-Baltimore corridor.

Just saw the upgrade to enhanced. Day-of upgrades always seem to bode well for us. Especially when the upgrade is at the 1300 update or later. Let's go! 

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

  Things continue to look active for the late afternoon / early evening period.    SPC has added an ENH to the DC-Baltimore corridor.

Storms after 430pm please when my flight leaves BWI

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45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Storms after 430pm please when my flight leaves BWI

       As long as ongoing convection to the northwest hasn't screwed up the schedule at BWI, and no other delays occur, you *should* be ok, as no guidance has storms arriving at BWI that early.

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4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I don't think I have ever seen you guys use this for severe, but it looks like a good time later so I like it and am expecting it to be right - RGEM lol

 

 

HRDPS

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