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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


Chicago Storm
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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I have to imagine those Ohio numbers near the shore are, at least somewhat, lake enhanced.

It would even more crazy if it were 100% synoptic.

Lake Erie is pretty much frozen now (at least the western half) so there shouldn't be much, if any enhancement.  Not sure if the GFS knows that or not.

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1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its been chilly, in the 50s here in fort myers past few days. Gonna be in the 80s n sunny all week so its gonna have to be a lil more north tomorrow for me to leave lol.

Meanwhile here, I'm going to be dealing with a significant ice storm that will likely knock out power.

That said, plane tickets ain't cheap, lol.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

00z GEFS similar look to the operational. Once again, awesome if verifies, but concerned we didn’t see more of a bump north. We likely trend to a consensus from here which favors north central Indiana and NW Ohio.

As stated earlier, theres so many moving pieces to this, some still offshore, so a bump more north is possible, or south. Its anyones guess. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be curious to go back and look at the NAM/GFS runs ~3 days prior to GHD I and II

NAM was very amped for GHD I, GFS was solid IIRC

I want to say both were south for GHD II and baby stepped slowly north. Euro led the way with that one. 
 

Speaking from a Chi metro standpoint, that area was in the bullseye fairly early and for much of the time with GHD I while GHD II was more reeling it in 

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00z GEFS similar look to the operational. Once again, awesome if verifies, but concerned we didn’t see more of a bump north. We likely trend to a consensus from here which favors north central Indiana and NW Ohio.
Too early to say that, it's not uncommon at all to have pretty large swings at shorter lead times. See the east coast bomb 2 days out for one of many examples.

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NAM was very amped for GHD I, GFS was solid IIRC
I want to say both were south for GHD II and baby stepped slowly north. Euro led the way with that one. 
 
Speaking from a Chi metro standpoint, that area was in the bullseye fairly early and for much of the time with GHD I while GHD II was more reeling it in 
I think GFS did pretty well for GHD II, did it waver less farther out than ECMWF? I do recall the ECMWF started honing in on the more extreme QPF/snow output. The stronger surface low was a pretty late detail in the forecast that led to us issuing the blizzard warning.

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6 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Hate it to end up being like the ice storm that New England and parts of Eastern Canada endured in January 1998.

January 2009 in Kentucky was worst ice storm I've seen since following weather. I'm 31 years old so not too old. Wasn't in it but here in Indy we got over a foot of snow. 

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43 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think GFS did pretty well for GHD II, did it waver less farther out than ECMWF? I do recall the ECMWF started honing in on the more extreme QPF/snow output. The stronger surface low was a pretty late detail in the forecast that led to us issuing the blizzard warning.

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You could be right. I’d have to go back and look. I just remember always making gif comparisons of Euro QPF from WxBell showing the bumps north. 

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11 minutes ago, Brian D said:

It's all frozen, except a small eastern area. Ice maps posted yesterday in Jan Discussion thread.

Those ice maps are never accurate, better to use satellite imagery. The far southtowns of Buffalo received over 3 feet of snow from an event in which the lake was 85% covered last year. So lake effect potential is definitely still there. Can get evaporation between the cracks in the ice.

this is a MODIS image

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Would be curious to go back and look at the NAM/GFS runs ~3 days prior to GHD I and II

Couldn't find the regular thread, but going off the GHD I weenie maps in there it looks like there was a bit of a north shift.

output_mB3vEs.gif

For GHD II, the Euro was south around this time.

48hrSnowTotalEnding7amMonday.png

 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Those ice maps are never accurate, better to use satellite imagery. The far southtowns of Buffalo received over 3 feet of snow from an event in which the lake was 85% covered last year. So lake effect potential is definitely still there.

this is a MODIS image

Looks like after this is over, all that ice will be piled up on the western end.

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8 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

Couldn't find the regular thread, but going off the GHD I weenie maps in there it looks like there was a bit of a north shift.

 

output_mB3vEs.gif

For GHD II, the Euro was south around this time.

 

Interesting! I’ve always wanted to track 48-72 hour “bull eyes” as in location areas, to see the actually verified. 

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1 minute ago, Cincy12 said:

Interesting! I’ve always wanted to track 48-72 hour “bull eyes” as in location areas, to see the actually verified. 

Snowfall Map

If my memory serves me correctly, the central axis of the heaviest snow was modelled to run through Valparaiso and South Bend on the globals. Then the hi-res models latched onto the north shift.

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