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7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Until we see wind reports,  would seem the high wind models were over done just a bit. Weren't able to fully mix down unfortunately For some areas. 

They rarely do fully mix down.  

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5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

They rarely do fully mix down.  

Yeah it was nuts what some of the models were suggesting. Like the gfs,  it has a known history to go a bit overboard with how high winds might get.  None the less, 68 mph out here was very impressive there's over 8,000 Island wide without power,  a large chunk on my end of the island.

 

Good job by Upton with wind amounts on this one. 

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --

Low pressure exists through Northern New England today with its strong cold front pushing east of LI/SE CT by 8am. Damaging wind event quickly coming to a close across far eastern LI and far SE CT early this morning, with post-frontal wind advisory gusts of 45-50 mph subsiding to 30 to 35 mph by mid to late morning. Widespread wind advisory gusts were observed across the area early this morning, with high wind gusts across the south shore and east end of LI as well as coastal SE CT. Also a narrow area of high wind gusts developed through Essex/Union (57 kt gust at EWR) and into Brooklyn (58mph at Brooklyn mesonet) with low topped convective line. High pressure then builds towards the region this afternoon, and with the initial burst of strong cold air advection done, gusts should settle into the 30 to 35 mph range for this afternoon. It will be drying out with sunshine, but temperatures will be dropping through the day (50s to lower 60s early AM to 30s late PM) with modified polar airmass advecting in.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yeah it was nuts what some of the models were suggesting. Like the gfs,  it has a known history to go a bit overboard with how high winds might get.  None the less, 68 mph out here was very impressive there's over 8,000 Island wide without power,  a large chunk on my end of the island.

 

Good job by Upton with wind amounts on this one. 

Several models did an excellent job like the SPC HREF. Peak gusts were in the 60-70 mph range here on Long Island. So this one was very well advertised.

 

C9CED79B-8A25-4A7A-84A3-3D83AA2EBB23.thumb.jpeg.51900bdbb22e8425090c8cb811fb426d.jpeg

 

 

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29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

End of GEFS run. 

Looks a bit different than the EPS from yesterday.

Anyone have the end of the EPS run today? 

951352531_gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65(6).thumb.png.22ba4c539488e721f971f5016cf6b442.png

Because the GEFS have a robust MJO wave moving into phase 5 around 3/4-3/5. EPS has the MJO in the COD

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Several models did an excellent job like the SPC HREF. Peak gusts were in the 60-70 mph range here on Long Island. So this one was very well advertised.

 

C9CED79B-8A25-4A7A-84A3-3D83AA2EBB23.thumb.jpeg.51900bdbb22e8425090c8cb811fb426d.jpeg

 

 

Yeah at least they showed the potential versus under doing it!  

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11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Yeah it was nuts what some of the models were suggesting. Like the gfs,  it has a known history to go a bit overboard with how high winds might get.  None the less, 68 mph out here was very impressive there's over 8,000 Island wide without power,  a large chunk on my end of the island.

 

Good job by Upton with wind amounts on this one. 

It seems widespread gusts to 60 doesnt really have much of an impact anymore for the island, now it’s more like widespread 70+ to really get widespread power outages like in isaias or sandy

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6 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

It seems widespread gusts to 60 doesnt really have much of an impact anymore for the island, now it’s more like widespread 70+ to really get widespread power outages like in isaias or sandy

My kids’ school has a delayed 2-hour opening because of no power with the possibility of it being closed all day depending on whether it comes back on or not. 

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The wind woke me up this morning around 4am. In the process of setting up a Tempest weather station my wife got me for my birthday, but it’s not up and running just yet. If I had to guess we were easily 55mph+ on some of those gusts. Heavy wind blown rain and was sitting around 61 degrees. This was inland Toms River. 
 

Driving to work the temperature fell a good amount, 52 now where I am in Union Co. Still blustery. 

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8 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

It seems widespread gusts to 60 doesnt really have much of an impact anymore for the island, now it’s more like widespread 70+ to really get widespread power outages like in isaias or sandy

It really comes down to whether the trees are fully leafed out or not. Isaias was the last major power outage here with 75-80 mph gusts with fully leafed out trees. Many fewer outages with this event with gusts in the 60s and bare trees. I believe the last cold season event with more widespread outages was March 2010 with the gusts over 75 mph. But those were fewer than Isaias with the trees still bare in March.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It really comes down to whether the trees are fully leafed out or not. Isaias was the last major power outage here with 75-80 mph gusts with fully leafed out trees. Many fewer outages with this event with gusts in the 60s and bare trees. I believe the last cold season event with more widespread outages was March 2010 with the gusts over 75 mph. But those were fewer than Isaias with the trees still bare in March.

Heavy wet snow and wind takes lines down easy, but haven't had a good one in a while like that either. 

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22 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Heavy wet snow and wind takes lines down easy, but haven't had a good one in a while like that either. 

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming.

I’ve mentioned it before…I had 6 trees when I bought my house in 2008, I’m down to 1. 4 were brought down by the wind. Off the top of my head, one came down and destroyed everything in my back yard (July of 2010) and another one hit my house, put a hole in my roof, bounced off and destroyed my porch and even smashed the windshield of my car. (August of 2019) 
I’m just so done with this shit.  

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HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

LOCATION                     SPEED     TIME/DATE       PROVIDER             

...CONNECTICUT...

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT           44 MPH    0514 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
FAIRFIELD                    43 MPH    0416 AM 02/18   CWOP                 

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CLINTON                      45 MPH    0545 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
CHESTER AIRPORT              41 MPH    0535 AM 02/18   AWOS                 

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
BETHANY                      52 MPH    0431 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
STONY CREEK                  51 MPH    0607 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
LIGHTHOUSE POINT             47 MPH    0510 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
MERIDEN AIRPORT              43 MPH    0434 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
HAMMONASSET                  41 MPH    0613 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
GROTON AIRPORT               60 MPH    0556 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
LYME                         47 MPH    0545 AM 02/18   CWOP                 

...NEW JERSEY...

...BERGEN COUNTY...
FAIR LAWN                    45 MPH    0140 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
TETERBORO AIRPORT            44 MPH    0624 AM 02/18   ASOS                 

...ESSEX COUNTY...
CALDWELL                     49 MPH    0605 AM 02/18   ASOS                 

...UNION COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT               66 MPH    0623 AM 02/18   ASOS                 

...NEW YORK...

...BRONX COUNTY...
FORDHAM                      42 MPH    0450 AM 02/18   NYSM                 

...KINGS COUNTY...
BROOKLYN COLLEGE             58 MPH    0640 AM 02/18   NYSM                 

...NASSAU COUNTY...
MERRICK                      53 MPH    0320 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
WANTAGH                      49 MPH    0630 AM 02/18   NYSM                 
0.8 NW UNIONDALE             47 MPH    0340 AM 02/18   MESOWEST             
OYSTER BAY                   44 MPH    0345 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
ATOC - PLAINVIEW             43 MPH    0455 AM 02/18   RAWS                 
BAYVILLE                     42 MPH    0343 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
MANHATTAN                    48 MPH    0430 AM 02/18   CWOP                 

...ORANGE COUNTY...
WARWICK                      47 MPH    0500 AM 02/18   NYSM                 
MONTGOMERY AIRPORT           41 MPH    0305 AM 02/18   AWOS                 
STEWART AIRPORT              40 MPH    0605 AM 02/18   AWOS                 

...QUEENS COUNTY...
NYC/JFK AIRPORT              51 MPH    0340 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
BREEZY POINT                 41 MPH    0248 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND     48 MPH    0400 AM 02/18   NYSM                 
2 SE ELIZABETH               45 MPH    0200 AM 02/18   NDBC                 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
ORIENT                       68 MPH    0400 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
EAST MORICHES CG             66 MPH    0435 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
NORTHPORT                    62 MPH    0355 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
ORIENT                       61 MPH    0409 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
BLUE POINT                   57 MPH    0349 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
FIRE ISLAND CG               56 MPH    0406 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
SOUTHOLD                     56 MPH    0440 AM 02/18   NYSM                 
GREAT SOUTH BAY              55 MPH    0610 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
BROOKHAVEN                   53 MPH    0330 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
STONY BROOK                  53 MPH    0216 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
WEST GILGO BEACH             53 MPH    0315 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
FARMINGDALE AIRPORT          52 MPH    0603 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
STONY BROOK                  52 MPH    0435 AM 02/18   NYSM                 
ISLIP AIRPORT                51 MPH    0457 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
ORIENT POINT                 49 MPH    0505 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
GREAT GULL ISLAND            48 MPH    0611 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
WEST ISLIP                   47 MPH    0354 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
MONTAUK AIRPORT              46 MPH    0539 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT          46 MPH    0509 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
BLUE POINT                   45 MPH    0400 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
SHIRLEY AIRPORT              45 MPH    0507 AM 02/18   ASOS                 
MECOX BAY                    45 MPH    0610 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
N. BABYLON                   44 MPH    0510 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
SINAI HARBOR                 44 MPH    0606 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
BAITING HOLLOW               43 MPH    0500 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
MELVILLE                     43 MPH    0509 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
REMSENBURG                   43 MPH    0526 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
FISHERS ISLAND AIRPORT       43 MPH    0613 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
NAPEAGUE                     43 MPH    0609 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
FARMINGVILLE                 42 MPH    0617 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
STONY BROOK                  42 MPH    0204 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
RIDGE                        41 MPH    0437 AM 02/18   CWOP                 

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14          45 MPH    1259 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
SOMERS                       40 MPH    0155 AM 02/18   NYSM                 

...CONNECTICUT...

...MARITIME STATIONS...
2 S GROTON                   62 MPH    0540 AM 02/18   NDBC                 
USCG ACADEMY                 55 MPH    0518 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 49 MPH    0613 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
1 ESE NORWALK                46 MPH    0621 PM 02/17   WXFLOW               
2 SSE NEW HAVEN              40 MPH    0430 AM 02/18   NOS-PORTS            

...NEW JERSEY...
JERSEY CITY                  42 MPH    0629 AM 02/18   CWOP                 

...NEW YORK...
ROBBINS REEF, NJ             58 MPH    0342 AM 02/18   NOS-PORTS            
26 SSE ROBERT MOSES STATE PA 56 MPH    0550 AM 02/18   NDBC                 
15 S ATLANTIC BEACH          54 MPH    0250 AM 02/18   NDBC                 
19 SSE EAST HAMPTON          54 MPH    0520 AM 02/18   NDBC                 
SHINNECOCK HILLS             49 MPH    0428 AM 02/18   CWOP                 
SHINNECOCK                   49 MPH    0612 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
POINT O WOODS YC             48 MPH    0452 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
3 NNW BAYVILLE               43 MPH    0915 PM 02/17   NDBC                 
FIRE ISLAND CG               40 MPH    0610 AM 02/18   WXFLOW               
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temperature roller coaster continues and could get worse...I checked some analogs that are similar to this year...1956-57 was slightly cooler but snowfall is equal to that year so far...it ended with 22"...this year could get more...56-57 had days that hit 60 in Jan and Feb and the next day was 30 degrees colder...typical la nina swing's...

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28 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’ve mentioned it before…I had 6 trees when I bought my house in 2008, I’m down to 1. 4 were brought down by the wind. Off the top of my head, one came down and destroyed everything in my back yard (July of 2010) and another one hit my house, put a hole in my roof, bounced off and destroyed my porch and even smashed the windshield of my car. (August of 2019) 
I’m just so done with this shit.  

We have had the tree removal crews here numerous times in recent years. Isaias was the recent worst for tree damage. The first big event in 2010 was the March windstorm. This was followed up by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Then it was  Irene in August 2011 followed by the record October heavy wet snowstorm that damaged so many trees around the region. Quickly followed by Sandy in 2012 with both wind and saltwater damage to trees. Several events after this as we have lost  track of all these high wind warning and severe thunderstorm events. There was also a notable severe thunderstorm complex with 80+ winds in June a few summers ago that really clobbered the North Shore. Then we had the recent out of season tornadoes and severe in the fall. So many homeowners are going to small ornamental varieties of trees that won’t do damage to their house or no trees at all.

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tomorrow should be another interesting day with possible snow squalls and another surge of strong winds. 

The mixing height  is about as high as we ever see it around here when the squall comes through on the HRRR tomorrow.

9944B96A-AC78-47BD-AFF0-499EA0B22D80.thumb.png.eb2fb67f9f8622462417984192b83510.png

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