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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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4 minutes ago, KeithB said:

I actually have driven to Albany for a snowstorm ( a few years ago) that I couldn't deal with missing as we were going to turn to rain (and that's the most painful), and another time I drove to North Conway NH for a Biggie. I got a hotel, and took 2 snowshoe hikes on the trails just off the Kancamagus Highway. I highly recommend it if anyone ever has the chance!

yes once you're in the middle of it you forget all the travel time and it's like being at home... home is wherever the snow is as the "new" saying goes.

 

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5 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

If you take this so seriously it's a horrible hobby. It's just freakin frozen rain which looks white and 5 hours later turns into black and yellow slush and ice puddles.So glad I don't give a crap anymore. I just follow the tracking, that's fun..But the snow?..I can finally live without it. I'm free!

I mean it helps when you've experienced several 20 inch storms like we have.  Anything we ever get from now until we die is gravy.  I honestly dont care if it ever snows again, because we've experienced the best and worst winter has to offer.

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I mean, a later phase is what we have been seeing nearly all day save for a NAM run.  So that looks like the logical trend to shed light on the outcome.  I don't see models all over the place with random solutions.  There is a consistent theme.

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Just now, EasternLI said:

This is what happens when the vort digs into the SW too much. It messes up the phase. Everything becomes more progressive. That could ruin this whole thing. Northern stream is ready to play ball. But it can't do it all alone. 

I thought being progressive is good because it means the energy gets ejected sooner?

 

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have no clue what to think about these runs. These shifts are really  drastic. 

 

 

Mid Atlantic states get more snow than the northeast on this Nam run

Ant - the shortwaves expected to be involved with this system were more completely sampled today.  This was noted on this thread earlier.  The new data went through the algorithms used by the models.  Unfortunately the result of that is what we see.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean it helps when you've experienced several 20 inch storms like we have.  Anything we ever get from now until we die is gravy.  I honestly dont care if it ever snows again, because we've experienced the best and worst winter has to offer.

When you get in your 50's and 60's, snow all of a sudden becomes cold and messy. It's part of nature and the aging process I guess

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean it helps when you've experienced several 20 inch storms like we have.  Anything we ever get from now until we die is gravy.  I honestly dont care if it ever snows again, because we've experienced the best and worst winter has to offer.

I got two feet a year ago.  I knew I was very unlikely to get anything substantive from this one.  This was always going to be a coastal event assuming it would happen.  I feel sorry for you guys on the coast with this latest turn of events on the models.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought being progressive is good because it means the energy gets ejected sooner?

 

No. The energy is hanging back in the SW messing up the phase. So the storm doesn't get a chance to amplify on the east coast. Heights stay flatter in the east and everything happens too late. If at all. We want the energy in the SW to be more progressive. We're going the other direction right now with that feature. 

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3 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

When you get in your 50's and 60's, snow all of a sudden becomes cold and messy. It's part of nature and the aging process I guess

I don't like it as much as I used to but it's still exciting to track a storm and see how people get into a frenzy when there's talk of snow.  Breaks the monotony of the cold and grey of winter.  

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Just now, Tatamy said:

On the NHC website they have indicated that they are flying three more winter recon flights tomorrow.  One flight will be over the Atlantic and two more over the PAC. This could lead to more model gyrations over the next 24 hours.

Hopefully the 12z runs tomorrow will have a good consensus either good or bad. :)

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Just now, jm1220 said:

18z RGEM looks about the same to me, maybe a small bit SE.

It still gets a few inches all the way back to western NJ. The really big storm idea seems to be falling apart, but hopefully we can at least pull off something like RGEM is showing. Several inches would at least be a decent snow event.

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8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

On the NHC website they have indicated that they are flying three more winter recon flights tomorrow.  One flight will be over the Atlantic and two more over the PAC. This could lead to more model gyrations over the next 24 hours.

Yeah...it'll be a Canary Islands storm at this rate.  

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