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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Eh, you need visibilities below 1/4 mile for 3 straight hours and 35 mph winds, that's not gonna happen absent a massive shift west. The twin forks could do it, but west of central suffolk i dont see it. 

Gonna be close they have nyc east gusting 50 but we’ll see 

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9 minutes ago, tim said:

..what about the "stall" or "loop" that was being mentioned?..alot of the future casts show the snow shield booking east pretty quickly..not to be picky or anything..just wondering your  thoughts on that..

 

I would prepare for a big storm in our neck of the woods IMO. Those future casts are tossed. 

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COBB SNOW METHOD    12Z Cycle

Nam    LGA   10"     JFK    14"

GFS     LGA     T      JFK     1"   since it has no liquid equivalent to work with!

 

That Conn. earthquake was near CosCob at 12:38pm and was just 1.4.        Prior to Irene in 2011 there was a quake near Washington DC and it damaged the Washington Monument.

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1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Gusts count: "Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater"

If I’m wrong I’m wrong but I’m willing to bet a lot of us wake up to one or at least by afternoon tomorrow depending on 00z  if current forecast holds up and down jersey shore and nyc east 

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Just now, nycsnow said:

If I’m wrong I’m wrong but I’m willing to bet a lot of us wake up to one or at least by afternoon tomorrow depending on 00z  if current forecast holds up and down jersey shore and nyc east 

Wouldn't surprise me at all.  But if it's meeting criteria in bands that pass relatively quickly, it might not meet the 3 consecutive hour threshold on either wind and/or visibility.  That's why they use expressions like "near blizzard" and "blizzard-like".  But it probably will meet criteria somewhere on LI and eastern NE and its not out of the question father west.

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2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Wouldn't surprise me at all.  But if it's meeting criteria in bands that pass relatively quickly, it might not meet the 3 consecutive hour threshold on either wind and/or visibility.  That's why they use expressions like "near blizzard" and "blizzard-like".  But it probably will meet criteria somewhere on LI and eastern NE and its not out of the question father west.

More often than not the aspect of a Blizzard that isn't met is the 3 hour duration.

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