Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS didn't beef up much back west, just upped the ante east.

[jbenedet]

Up and in.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Tossed a little more precip up our way too.

It dumbells that second low into the GOM then consolidates, Just about all the models have done this this morning so you have to think its real unless the euro differs.

[ORH_wxman]

If the low elongates too much, then it ends up robbing us of some WCB precip....that's why some of the solutions are more tame. But some guidance is grabbing the low quick enough and dragging that WCB back into the cold side and forming a monster CCB....even the GFS is able to partially do it this run which is why E MA gets annihilated.

[dryslot]

Slight improvement and i expect the GFS to continue that now as we get closer it will keep ticking better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If the low elongates too much, then it ends up robbing us of some WCB precip....that's why some of the solutions are more tame. But some guidance is grabbing the low quick enough and dragging that WCB back into the cold side and forming a monster CCB....even the GFS is able to partially do it this run which is why E MA gets annihilated.

GFS deforms from about Taunton back to 495.

[MJO812]

Gefs still has a spread

The spread this late is incredible 

[IowaStorm05]

GFS really freaked me out until I realized I had the setting at 10:1

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Northwest lean on the gefs

The spread this late is incredible 

Probably the GFS suite trying to tell you the EURO is right (pending 12z)

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably the GFS suite trying to tell you the EURO is right (pending 12z)

Exactly 

This is for down here. I will post your area.

[Cyclone-68]

What is the likely pressure this storm will bottom out? Not expecting the 950’s from the other day, but?

[MJO812]

[MegaMike]

We're kinda' in a "gray area" for NWP at the moment - 

A little too early to completely rely on fine scale models like the HRRR, NAM 3km, and HRDPS (to name a few) & a little too late for the global modeling systems (ECMWF, GFS, CMC, etc...).

I mentioned it last event, but I'll repeat it again: Finer scale modeling systems (less than, say, 4km) can explicitly resolve convective processes. Courser models need parameterizations, or approximations, to resolve such processes. In between that, you have models that can partially diagnose convection, but may require convective parameterizations (~10 km - RGEM). These in-between modeling systems may give you odd-looking results. 

That written, it's clear that at some point, we need to put more weight into the mesoscale models somewhat soon since convective processes will be important as the disturbances rapidly intensify over the Atlantic. In my opinion, if the dual low/structure is around by 00 UTC tonight (by the mesos), I'll begin to take the dual low/structure seriously even if the global models do not.

Why at 00 UTC? The PBL is more predictable (yea, I know it's January) and easier to assimilate into NWP at night along the east coast vs. during the day. 00 UTC cycles reduce uncertainty (I'm also aware of statistics for the 00/06/12/18 UTC cycles) in my opinion for that reason.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS deforms from about Taunton back to 495.

Yeah prob your area down 495 and over to 128....as the best H7 fronto hugs the coastline and the best banding will be a bit west of that.

[ROOSTA]

Moving into nowcast mode. Thinking model diagnosis here in will be noise only pointing the jacked area. That's huge for most but from afar doesn't mean as much as it used to.
I'll keep to running the scripts, save the graphics, post to my FB presence and as to not clutter the thread.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs looked pretty good to me . Solid mid levels closing off in time 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gf’s looked pretty good to me . Solid mid levels closing off in time 

I'm just gonna check 12z EURO, then its models off, radar on and weenie out

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

GFS coming around, better h5 and h7 look. elongated, smilongated....whatever. Narcan looks like Feb13 and that's the only thing that matters. 

[MuddyWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

Does someone in eastern MA get 40?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob your area down 495 and over to 128....as the best H7 fronto hugs the coastline and the best banding will be a bit west of that.

You wonder if that should be corrected north a bit due to convection, etc...game time call for me..

[Supernovice]

We looking at flooding in downtown Boston and other prone areas- or are the tides not going to align?

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

Curious to what ratio those totals are, I don't have time to do the math but you probably know.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GFS coming around, better h5 and h7 look. elongated, smilongated....whatever. Narcan looks like Feb13 and that's the only thing that matters. 

I'd actually be okay with 2' over 3' if it means you grab a foot...I don't need absolute jack, though its nice.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

That’s at least a 10 spot back here so no complaints.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

GFS really freaked me out until I realized I had the setting at 10:1

Eastern 2/3 of CT will be in the deform 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Curious to what ratio those totals are, I don't have time to do the math but you probably know.

Its proprietary, its explicitly says it, but seems most akin to Cobb....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Supernovice said:

We looking at flooding in downtown Boston and other prone areas- or are the tides not going to align?

I dunno but winds are more side shore than Ne/ENE For many (I think ) 

 

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Curious to what ratio those totals are, I don't have time to do the math but you probably know.

here 1.25-1.5" qpf (on op gfs) and that map shows 30"+ 

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd actually be okay with 2' over 3' if it means you grab a foot...I don't need absolute jack, though its nice.

A sentence I never thought I'd read