Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, jbenedet said:

euro at 24 looks more amped vs 6z

it is, which means it will bury in the sw more

[tiger_deF]

What would be more satisfying to the board; to see solutions converge West and more intense after staying relatively weaker and more Eastern, or to see the same strong, intense storm modelled with only small wobbles up until the start time?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

euro at 24 looks more amped vs 6z.

West.

Give it to me hot and heavy.

[snowdazed]

You guys are posting too quickly for a neophyte like me to keep up.

Can someone give me an executive summary of what is going on?  

Other than "too early to say", of course.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

What would be more satisfying to the board; to see solutions converge West and more intense after staying relatively weaker and more Eastern, or to see the same strong, intense storm modelled with only small wobbles up until the start time?

There are two boards, even three, within this subforum...so you're going to get 2-3 different set of answers. 

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Depends on when the 70/30 compromise happens though. Yesterday would have been awesome lol. But If euro ticks east more then today's compromise is no longer good for wsne., 

This will be similar to January 2015 and I know that spooks you.   But didn’t your now location do pretty well?

[JC-CT]

it's very amped with the northern stream

[NotSureWeather]

1 minute ago, snowdazed said:

You guys are posting too quickly for a neophyte like me to keep up.

Can someone give me an executive summary of what is going on?  

Other than "too early to say", of course.

It’s gonna snow.

[WeatherWilly]

[ORH_wxman]

Def hanging back the southern stream more....but northern stream looks better.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

This will be similar to January 2015 and I know that spooks you.   But didn’t your now location do pretty well?

Not at all, 6".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Hanging back the s vort more. 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Give it to me hot and heavy.

My sister lives in Vernon, and she doesn’t really like big storms due to shoveling aspects, so will be interested in your obs so I can know what she is facing without exposing her to my desire for as strong a storm as possible.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well... this will be interesting as the Euro rolls out.  Some quick orbital perspectives:

-- the Euro has not been as stable as we may think. It's been decent with position. It's not consistent with intensity - this latter aspect is trending shallower. In fact, we're 15 mb less deep now compared to 24 or so hours ago. That gradual decline means the governing aspect/wave mechanics are weakening over time, eventually - this model could break E and join the less proficiently phased GFS, if it gets to teetering with a weaker threshold.

-- considering this is D3 at the start, to D4 ( or so) finishing;  the average error at the front side of that range ( I think) is 150 to 200 mi. At the end of that range it would open up even more. It would help people's confidence for higher impact if the GFS model, and whichever ... would stop pressing against the eastern side of that range.

-- there are arguments in support of either erstwhile solution envelopes.  Pending this 12z run, if the Euro more than less holds ... it would be about as cut and dry a model fight as we've seen, and doing so D3/4 is interesting - that's a neat case, particularly for this era of technology. It's not like this is D5+ anymore.  

-- they could suddenly coalesce on an eastern solution, then, en masse, come back when the wave mechanics start carving S along the eastern flanks of the western ridge later Thursday.  Sometimes just doing that, and the intensity adds back..  Anecdotal memory -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def hanging back the southern stream more....but northern stream looks better.

Maybe we can turn this into a pure n streamer lol. At this point, just get rid of the dragging drunk southern vort and let the north take over. 

[ORH_wxman]

if I had to take an educated guess, it prob ends up slightly east of 06z....there's two competing forces....southern stream is dragging worse but the northern stream looks healthier and more meridional.

[wxsniss]

As others have said, thru 48 hanging back the southern energy (resembles 12z GFS in that regard), but northern energy is better... net may be a slightly later capture

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe we can turn this into a pure n streamer lol. At this point, just get rid of the dragging drunk southern vort and let the north take over. 

i know you are kidding, but that opportunity is long gone

[George001]

Navy appears to have shifted west, at h5 it has a closed off low and 2 closed contours instead of only one. Rule of thumb is a foot of a snow for each closed contour (Bernie Rayno talked about it on his livestream, the Euro actually had 3 closed contours). Interestingly the gfs has 3 as well as it goes over the cape and 5 downeast Maine (so it’s surface output is likely bullshit verbatim). The Canadian has only one, which is why it makes sense that the snow totals are lower on that. Nam has 5 closed contours as it crosses over nantucket. Euro last night had 3. 

[dryslot]

That convective blob is stretching out the slp to the east some.

[JC-CT]

Just now, George001 said:

Navy appears to have shifted west

because it was over bermuda at 6z

[Baroclinic Zone]

Agree with Will that this should end up tugged east a bit initially looking at heights.  See if it slings back as it comes N.  Looks good still though.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, JC-CT said:

i know you are kidding, but that opportunity is long gone

I am. Euro another jog east AWT. Congrats ESNE. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Looks dead nuts the same at 500mb, 60 hrs

[ORH_wxman]

It's def east through 66 hours. But it's going to capture this at some point so we'll see how far east in the end.

[weathafella]

Took longer to capture but a beauty at 84 hours.   Slower for sure.

[JC-CT]

as tip alluded to...just wholly unimpressive compared to prior runs. sad.

[CoastalWx]

Closes off south of us. 

[wxsniss]

Trough axis at 72 actually looks slightly better... this will capture a tic east but still be a good solution, for sure much better than 12z GFS

 

[dendrite]

A little more confluence this run...don't need that for up here.