Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

GGM AND Euro are fantastic. It’s fine where it is now for us. Trending not done yet obviously. 

If we take our weenies out of our hands though, we can see this doesn't have that much more room to go left and considering captures tend to happen, in non ATL blocked flows, more NE than modeled, this favors the east. It just does. Not saying WOR can't get in on this at all but Jan15 is certainly knocking on our doors. 

My lean as of now is a Feb13/Jan15 hybrid wrt snowfall distribution (not amounts). 

DISCLAIMER: Plenty of time to go. I'm simply hedging as a hobbyist. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Semantics but.. shouldn't scale/size matter for those definitions?  

I mean, the "E" and the "C" stand for East and Coast.   If this stalls and donut stuffs Boston for 30" and NYC for 2" ...is that a HECS? 

Those are the best kinds of HECS....most historical of all. The kind I tell bedtime stories of to Dean and Sourayah...

[JC-CT]

just remember, for folks south of the MA/NH border anyway, whatever falls won't last very long anyway. so if you lose, you just have less to lose!

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm on the NW corner of the Cape so have some wiggle room from a Cape perspective - but wish we could just lock these runs in now. 4 days is an eterrrrrrnity

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

If you look closely, does this imply a frontogen band near the NY CT border?

It's actually not uncommon to see two bands unfold in major storms like this. And they can be a forecast killer (in both directions) b/c you can get some serious subsidence between the two. In some cases the two bands will even consolidate and all hell just breaks lose under it

[Spanks45]

Just now, JC-CT said:

just remember, for folks south of the MA/NH border anyway, whatever falls won't last very long anyway. so if you lose, you just have less to lose!

Grinch, groundhog style coming....hope we are all buried in snow before hand

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

If you look closely, does this imply a frontogen band near the NY CT border?

Yeah there would actually be a secondary band on the outer part of the precip shield on that solution...there's a decent area of ML fronto out in W MA and W CT and along the NY border. It wouldn't be a death band like back east, but it would probably drop a nice fluffy secondary jack.

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, 952 over the BM on the GGEM. That's the kind of stuff I used to draw in my notebook in college during class when I was bored.

You and I clearly have different fantasies.

 

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the kind of stuff we routinely 40-bun George for-

James would love this.  RIP

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we take our weenies out of our hands though, we can see this doesn't have that much more room to go left and considering captures tend to happen, in non ATL blocked flows, more NE than modeled, this favors the east. It just does. Not saying WOR can't get in on this at all but Jan15 is certainly knocking on our doors. 

My lean as of now is a Feb13/Jan15 hybrid wrt snowfall distribution (not amounts). 

DISCLAIMER: Plenty of time to go. I'm simply hedging as a hobbyist. 

If its a combo of both of those..we good. Again you missed 2/13…all the same things were being said/forecasted right up to go time as it was already snowing, and it didn’t play out like that.  I’m not sold on either scenario yet..waiting to see.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's actually not uncommon to see two bands unfold in major storms like this. And they can be a forecast killer (in both directions) b/c you can get some serious subsidence between the two. In some cases the two bands will even consolidate and all hell just breaks lose under it

There are going to big ranges.....someone within 15 miles of me will be doing keg stands in 37", while I bitch about 15".

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There going to big ranges.....someone within 15 miles of me will be doing kegs stands in 37, while I bitch about 15".

Absolutely...that's pretty much a given I think. Some are going to get screwed compared to some around them.

[moneypitmike]

In case it wasn't posted.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Corey will be in the screwgie   

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely...that's pretty much a given I think. Some are going to get screwed compared to some around them.

Hopefully the H5 low isn't 200 mi wide like Boxing day.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Grinch, groundhog style coming....hope we are all buried in snow before hand

Who cares about that.  Just enjoy what is at hand. That’ll change too. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

In case it wasn't posted.

no reflection of any interior banding

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are going to big ranges.....someone within 15 miles of me will be doing keg stands in 37", while I bitch about 15".

I'm all set for it.  My wife stranded in Maine while I'm hanging out with a cleared driveway in Westborough.

[CT Rain]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully the H5 low isn't 200 mi wide like Boxing day.

Yeah the weird thing with Boxing Day is that the mid level low tracks were actually decent back this way. But those lows were so broad everything was displaced pretty far north and west of the low center.

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Who cares about that.  Just enjoy what is at hand. That’ll change too. 

doubtful

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully the H5 low isn't 200 mi wide like Boxing day.

Agreed...and IIRC that was something that was overlooked heading into the storm. There was so much focus on what looked great that many flags were missed. 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Who cares about that.  Just enjoy what is at hand. That’ll change too. 

So far this season all of the cutters have ended up squashed at verification time. Not worried about that thing yet at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

no reflection of any interior banding

You won't see that...QPF is only modeled as low level fronto.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

doubtful

Ya ok whatever.  
 

Just a day ago long range was looking decent again. But Who the F cares. 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Corey will be in the screwgie   

He'll be hanging out, playing his accordian at a coffee shop in Brattleboro.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

no reflection of any interior banding

GFS is still moving left. It was a huge jump from 06z. 18z should be good.

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Just a day ago long range was looking decent again. But Who the F cares. 

the long range does look decent. it's the first week of February that looks torchy

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

If its a combo of both of those..we good. Again you missed 2/13…all the same things were being said/forecasted right up to go time as it was already snowing, and it didn’t play out like that.  I’m not sold on either scenario yet..waiting to see.  

I tracked Feb13 from NC lol. That's how sick I am, as most of us are. But yea, but if you remember there was also runs that jacked NJ. I think we set have set the goalposts here though. For us, it could be historic or a glancing blow while out east has more room for historic outcomes. That's climo though and that's why sticking out into the path of ocean storms sets up well. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah the weird thing with Boxing Day is that the mid level low tracks were actually decent back this way. But those lows were so broad everything was displaced pretty far north and west of the low center.

Yea, at the end of the day, all we have are general rules of thumb...each storm is unique.

[Chrisrotary12]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's actually not uncommon to see two bands unfold in major storms like this. And they can be a forecast killer (in both directions) b/c you can get some serious subsidence between the two. In some cases the two bands will even consolidate and all hell just breaks lose under it

The 12z GGEM actually shows this quite well.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

doubtful

And did you forget already…everybody already sold their soul for a monster, and have forgone the rest of the winter. So we good.