Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

Kinda funny how within basically 1 or 2 cycles all major models went from whiffing me completely to completely burying me. 

I am not spiking any footballs yet, it will change again.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Although I do agree with the West trends with the models, I don't see this one doing what the storm a few weeks back did.... Where is cuts way inland. Just nit the same set up as that. We have a High pressure to the north/ northwest and the troughing in the West is set up better for this storm to stay offshore. 

With that said, xould it track over the cape, now that is possible, but the more likely trend would be very close to the BM or just a touch inside or outside the BM. 

Just my thoughts on what we're seeing with last nights trends

I mentioned this already this morning but agree here ...

There's a physical limitation for how far west the lower troposphere can get in this case. That system last week features a trough axis roughly BUF due S, and the low came up astride that axis, very tucked to that physical boundary ...enabled to do so because there was little resistance in the BL anywhere E of mid- upstate NY and points SE-E. 

This system's trough arrival situates east of that axis, extending south ... and there is ( not sure if anyone is noticing this...) a tendency to D(PP) N of Maine-Ontario.. That will put the BL resistance the last system didn't have, and it's game over for inland tracks. 

The only way I change my mind on this aspect ... is if future runs bodily move the entire synoptic manifold, west, repositioning the axis along with it... But, then we'd still have to consider the BL resistance and what kind of mess ..but that's all 'what-if'...

The low won't go west of the trough axis - it can't, or it kills the circulation. The only way it can is if the trough closes off, which this does, but not until it is nearing SE areas, and if captures ( btw) we stall for 4 to 6 hours - even in a modestly progressive vestigial character to the flow, can do a quick Fuji rotation in there.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

People are paranoid because this is the kind of synoptic setup that has the potential to truly produce a historic beast... provided that all the factors (northern stream, southern stream, positioning of disturbances, high pressure interactions) line up just right. With models setting expectations this high this early, while the end result could end up being exactly what is modeled now, there will certainly be some movement with us being 5 days out. Getting 6 inches of snow as a max out of this system would leave the board majorly disappointed, while getting 6 inches out of a system that comes out of nowhere would be considered exciting.

Good post but paranoia? Keep your expectations in check at this range. Modeled historical storms rarely work out. Best to be happy with a 6 to 10 at this point. If we continue on a historical trend well then crank it up. Too many people setting themselves up for major disappointment which I guess they will carry on to the next storm.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

7 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

People are paranoid because this is the kind of synoptic setup that has the potential to truly produce a historic beast... provided that all the factors (northern stream, southern stream, positioning of disturbances, high pressure interactions) line up just right. With models setting expectations this high this early, while the end result could end up being exactly what is modeled now, there will certainly be some movement with us being 5 days out. Getting 6 inches of snow as a max out of this system would leave the board majorly disappointed, while getting 6 inches out of a system that comes out of nowhere would be considered exciting.

If there's one thing I've learned since Juno, it's don't ever predict a KU.

I still have that one BOX snow map imprinted in my mind, the one that showed basically everyone away from the South Coast getting 24-30+. What a fail.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

If there's one thing I've learned since Juno, it's don't ever predict a KU.

I still have that one BOX snow map imprinted in my mind, the one that showed basically everyone away from the South Coast getting 24-30+. What a fail.

That was a terrible job by them though in a long list of terrible snowstorm forecasts/busts. You never forecast that high especially when it just the euro putting up those amounts in NJ/NY/WCT. Mention the potential but keep it reasonable until you're inside 24hrs imo. 

[wxeyeNH]

I have a couple of questions.  Just went through all the posts to see if someone already asked.

What is the deepest cyclone in mb at the latitude of the Cape/Boston?  Would the Euro  946mb be a record?  Sure would seem like it.

Blizzard of 78 was 984mb (I think) but a stronger high out west.  What has been the steepest pressure gradient over New England for a winter storm?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We're fine ... that storm/lower trop aspect won't go W of the CT R Valley with a trough closing axis that close by... Plus, there is more antecedent BL resistent cold this time - so ...I think folks are flavoring their concerns a bit based upon recency ?  It's normal to do that but I ..lol, there's an advantage to be numbed by years of abandonment crisis and reduced at mid age to not giving a shit about anything in reality anymore for that matter... it has an interesting upside of looking at everything dispassionately without bias. 

No, but it's like timing a basket ball play/ ally 'oop.   The whole synoptic manifold is moving E and not stationary, as this is wildly deepening N.. the storm won't go west of said trough axis, and with BL resistance at this range... that's game over for an ALB track.

Just sayn'

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have a couple of questions.  Just went through all the posts to see if someone already asked.

What is the deepest cyclone in mb at the latitude of the Cape/Boston?  Would the Euro  946mb be a record?  Sure would seem like it.

Blizzard of 78 was 984mb (I think) but a stronger high out west.  What has been the steepest pressure gradient over New England for a winter storm?

946 offshore would be up there with the lowest for sure. The pressure gradient stuff is very interesting. I would assume that record exists somewhere. 

[CoastalWx]

The airmass is not really cold ahead of it. 925 and surface temps out of southwest and mild. As the storm deepens, the cold then gets pulled down. The euro shows this nicely. The GFs does the same, but unfortunately taints a lot of SNE. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have a couple of questions.  Just went through all the posts to see if someone already asked.

What is the deepest cyclone in mb at the latitude of the Cape/Boston?  Would the Euro  946mb be a record?  Sure would seem like it.

Blizzard of 78 was 984mb (I think) but a stronger high out west.  What has been the steepest pressure gradient over New England for a winter storm?

Mar. 1993 was 968mb.

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If it’s going to hug, get me that 949 member from yesterday so i can be in the eyewall. 

Precisely

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

What does this mean for Cape Cod at this point?

Unnnfortunately ..that's too detailed a focal region for this time range.  The best one can offer you for an answer is climate, and really the only way to keep you guys snow out there is to have this be more BM/E tracking...  helps to also have a fresh cold air supply coming more from the western Maritime of Canada, as opposed to an ENE fetch SE of there.

[tiger_deF]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass is not really cold ahead of it. 925 and surface temps out of southwest and mild. As the storm deepens, the cold then gets pulled down. The euro shows this nicely. The GFs does the same, but unfortunately taints a lot of SNE. 

So what I'm hearing here is, unlike other synoptic setups of some past storms, is that the stronger the low the less tainting there could be?

[JC-CT]

Pretty much everything has been determined except for exactly how much for philly

[weatherwiz]

I would much, much, much prefer to NOT have a cyclone bomb out or become as deep as advertised. 

[#NoPoles]

32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Kinda funny how within basically 1 or 2 cycles all major models went from whiffing me completely to completely burying me. 

I am not spiking any footballs yet, it will change again.

Greenbay and Buffalo learned the hard way on how quickly things can change

[PhineasC]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I would much, much, much prefer to NOT have a cyclone bomb out or become as deep as advertised. 

Maybe you will get a tornado or something to track?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Honestly with the ens low mean being as deep as it is, I think it's fair to say that independent of track, a strong storm is more than likely.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I would much, much, much prefer to NOT have a cyclone bomb out or become as deep as advertised. 

because?

[Damage In Tolland]

Why is this being compared to Morch 93? That dropped a foot plus from Alabama to Maine. One is not like the other. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We're fine ... that storm/lower trop aspect won't go W of the CT R Valley with a trough closing axis that close by... Plus, there is more antecedent BL resistent cold this time - so ...I think folks are flavoring their concerns a bit based upon recency ?  It's normal to do that but I ..lol, there's an advantage to be numbed by years of abandonment crisis and reduced at mid age to not giving a shit about anything in reality anymore for that matter... it has an interesting upside of looking at everything dispassionately without bias. 

No, but it's like timing a basket ball play/ ally 'oop.   The whole synoptic manifold is moving E and not stationary, as this is wildly deepening N.. the storm won't go west of said trough axis, and with BL resistance at this range... that's game over for an ALB track.

Just sayn'

I agree with this logic.  Result on western edge of this could leave a lot of people looking at white rain.

I'd personally like to see the Ensm mean outside the BM on a S-N trajectory right now.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

because?

I can only guess that a deeper low brings with it convective precip, which means that someone will get shafted by dryslotting.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I can only guess that a deeper low brings with it convective precip, which means that someone will get shafted by dryslotting.

It's a tradeoff between that and wind

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is this being compared to Morch 93? That dropped a foot plus from Alabama to Maine. One is not like the other. 

It was brought up as a possible "deepest low pressure at the latitude of BOS".

I don't think it was meant to be a comparison.

[MJO812]

My favorite model

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

It was brought up as a possible "deepest low pressure at the latitude of BOS".

I don't think it was meant to be a comparison.

I see you’re in Vernon. I grew up there . Lived off of Tunnel Rd. All the years of getting 6-10” less snow than the hills to my NE made we move as soon as I was able 

[tamarack]

26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have a couple of questions.  Just went through all the posts to see if someone already asked.

What is the deepest cyclone in mb at the latitude of the Cape/Boston?  Would the Euro  946mb be a record?  Sure would seem like it.

Blizzard of 78 was 984mb (I think) but a stronger high out west.  What has been the steepest pressure gradient over New England for a winter storm?

CAR recorded 957 in 2/2/76 and I think the OV bomb of Jan 78 got down to about 952.  What was 1938's deepest in New England?  (Or at LI landfall?)

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Maybe you will get a tornado or something to track?

maybe in the ocean somewhere :lo: 

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

because?

Historically, such situations where we see storms bomb out and develop such low pressure's at the center usually result in major headaches from not just a forecasting perspective but expectations. With tropical systems, how does the precipitation shield generally evolve? The precipitation shield tends to become more banded in nature...while the physical processes between these storms and tropical are vastly different, this is one commonalty...a more banded precipitation shield. So with this you develop very strong lift within narrow areas and then very strong subsidence between the bands. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I see you’re in Vernon. I grew up there . Lived off of Tunnel Rd

I live off Rt. 30, near Northeast Elementary School.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe in the ocean somewhere :lo: 

Historically, such situations where we see storms bomb out and develop such low pressure's at the center usually result in major headaches from not just a forecasting perspective but expectations. With tropical systems, how does the precipitation shield generally evolve? The precipitation shield tends to become more banded in nature...while the physical processes between these storms and tropical are vastly different, this is one commonalty...a more banded precipitation shield. So with this you develop very strong lift within narrow areas and then very strong subsidence between the bands. 

this is all true. also why some of these deep ensemble members showing up haven't actually been that great region-wide. But there is something historic about a storm that strong that is cool in its own right.