sauss06 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 what a shit show. @candersonif this turns into another V-day storm, we may have to meet on the middle of the GWB and share drinks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 "We blew that forecast." - Probably everybody on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Rgem comes in with some front end thump type snows but its changing pretty quickly for the LSV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 So MDT is extremely likely looking at 1-2" snow, then a sleetfest and a little glaze of zr just to kick us when we're down? I already despise this storm. BUUUUUT sleet >>>> zr with strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: So MDT is extremely likely looking at 1-2" snow, then a sleetfest and a little glaze of zr just to kick us when we're down? I already despise this storm. BUUUUUT sleet >>>> zr with strong winds. Yes, we want to root for sleet and not freezing rain. It has staying power and doesn't cause as many power problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 How about that 6-10” forecast from ABC27 last night??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ok. I hate it when MA weenies crash the mag.ncep site for storms that aren’t even impacting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 From Millville in the MA thread..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: How about that 6-10” forecast from ABC27 last night??? If you are talking digital/model snow, that still is close to verifying on the Euro and GFS I believe (for you.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If you are talking digital/model snow, that still is close to verifying on the Euro and GFS I believe (for you.) Well not so on the 12Z GFS. Funny but the GFS snow map does not look too much different than the Nam from yesterday. Highest snows in PA near Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 At this point I hope I get dryslotted fiercely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, canderson said: At this point I hope I get dryslotted fiercely. The Nam is laughing at all of us though the storm is not in progress yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, anotherman said: From Millville in the MA thread..... That looks like a pretty darn good map to these eyes. Love the attention to detail in regards to some of the higher terrain areas. Great job @MillvilleWx 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If y'all have any questions to the map, tag me and I'll try to answer them. I'll have a longer write up later today after work on my thoughts. I'll likely post in the MA thread, but I'll copy the post here for all to read. Thanks for the feedback guys 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 FWIW, GFS is a little better(thermally speaking) as well as SLP placement being a tick further E, which is now our way to salvaging some winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If y'all have any questions to the map, tag me and I'll try to answer them. I'll have a longer write up later today after work on my thoughts. I'll likely post in the MA thread, but I'll copy the post here for all to read. Thanks for the feedback guys Since it’s cut off, any thoughts up my way in PIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Since it’s cut off, any thoughts up my way in PIT? I haven't examined the Pittsburgh area too much, but you guys will be well away from any warm boundary layer advection outside a slight climb as the SLP gets into PA. I think WSW criteria snowfall is certainly at play for you guys. I really like the Laurels for this one. This is a great storm for places like JST/Altoona area. I think you guys will get some love out that way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 In and out of meetings today and time here is limited. All I need to really know is at the bottom of my screen - last evening there were 32 members online. Right now? 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CTP's 11 am discussion is very detailed and a good read. Quote A closed mid-level low pivoting across the Gulf Coast early Sunday morning will begin to lift northeast and take on a negative tilt across the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon and then race northeast to be over NJ by 12Z Monday. This will be accompanied by an increasingly coupled jet structure downstream of the pivoting trough, with intense ascent through diffluence aiding in the development and then strengthening of a low pressure system moving north to a nearly stacked position by the end of D3. The guidance has come into much better agreement with the placement of this low lifting roughly along the I-95 corridor. As this low initially develops, mid-level confluence over the Mid-Atlantic will help reinforce a wedge of high pressure down the east side of the Appalachians in a typical Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup. As the low strengthens, moisture will surge northwestward behind robust isentropic lift and likely produce a period of moderate to heavy snow (WAA thump) early Sunday night (00-06Z Mon). Mixed thermal profiles and possible dry slot are in play into early Monday morning to the southeast of I-99/80 which could transition snow to ice over the southeast part of the CWA. While there are still some details to resolve, there is a strong enough model signal to issue a well-collaborated winter storm watch for most of the CWA from 18Z Sunday to 18Z Monday. The multi-model/blended QPF and SLRs indicate potential for 6" or more of snow with a minor ice glaze also possible across the southeast 1/3 of the area. Deformation snow appears to linger over the northern part of CPA through Monday morning. The expected snowfall btwn 12-18Z Monday was not included in the storm total with this cycle given that it is beyond the set time window. Expect cold/gusty NW flow to take over Monday night with deformation snow transition to lake effect/upslope snow showers into Tuesday morning. Post-storm will likely feature a period of gusty northwest winds and lake effect snow showers as cool temperatures remain in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 47 minutes ago, canderson said: At this point I hope I get dryslotted fiercely. At this point I agree with you. I'd rather get nothing than slop to ice... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gem has the non stacked, dual low structure but closes off the 850 firehose a bit sooner and hammers Western PA. It is really is a bit better over here as well. Already posted the Rgem but we are sort of in between when one would be considered over the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Bubbler, that run you just posted would come super close to verifying Millville's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Seems as tho the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86 Anyway, I restored it and merged Thanks Boss!! Bub no more fat fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Thanks Boss!! Bub no more fat fingers I wish I knew what I did so I do not do it again. LOL. I did make the effort to alert the authorities and get it back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Bubbler, that run you just posted would come super close to verifying Millville's map. Yea, its a more simple, vanilla way for this to roll out. The inland low is absorbed sooner which shuts off the warm air over there...and the UL's are much more simple in how they play out with much less ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC. That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution. Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west. CMC is a noticeable shift towards that. Let's see if we can get it on the Euro. I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event! Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC. That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution. Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west. CMC is a noticeable shift towards that. Let's see if we can get it on the Euro. I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event! Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now. Some of us have to get out of the house tomorrow and will be living vicariously via mobile. LOL. It's been a long haul...some 6-10 models 4x a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some of us have to get out of the house tomorrow and will be living vicariously via mobile. LOL. It's been a long haul...some 6-10 models 4x a day. Hope your car starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It was all so beautiful. And then it was gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Hope your car starts! In refence to the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now