paweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Good luck everyone I hope it is white and not wet but I am sure all should get several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Good luck everyone I hope it is white and not wet but I am sure all should get several inches. Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: In refence to the cold? Yup. I didn’t Goodfellas ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro very similar to 0Z through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Yup. I didn’t Goodfellas ya. I thought maybe you were afraid I would delete it while filling the gas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I thought maybe you were afraid I would delete it while filling the gas. LOL. Yep. You got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro very consistent at 54. Warm push coming up both sides still via two waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Md to hvy snow through 2/3 of PA at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 52 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC. That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution. Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west. CMC is a noticeable shift towards that. Let's see if we can get it on the Euro. I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event! Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now. Everything still looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro saves the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Eastern low takes a bit of precedence at 66 but still quite a bit of rain and mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Extended Deform band through central PA at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 10-1 map after most snow is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 10-1 quite a higher than Kuch in our neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CTP hinting at a much lower impact for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP hinting at a much lower impact for the LSV. FWIW, the Euro closely matches their WSW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP hinting at a much lower impact for the LSV. That blows. I was hoping for a 3 day weekend. We don't run until the roads are somewhat clear and passable. If it shuts off too early, off to work I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Euro saves the day Go ahead and get the plow ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Awesome ^ Inspector showed up right as I was sitting down to look at models at lunch . Just saw the Euro and I'm very happy with its output for here . Real nice wind driven thump to brief mix then lull ...then a very possible wraparound mini deform . For Monday morning and SS through afternoon. What's not to like. Did you tell him or her to hold on, the Euro was coming in? Appease them by pointing out that its not slow like the Nam. Euro, like the GEM, was better at not pushing the westward extent of the 850's failure over our way. Here is the worst 925 and 850 for the LSV. On the 850's, we were about to lose them from the west the panel before this but the coastal has collapsed it on this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gotta start looking at mesos for thermals. I am thinking brief heavy snow to sleet to rain. NAM looks like it has the right idea.Where we have watches for heavier snows, thinking that will be a sleet fest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Gotta start looking at mesos for thermals. I am thinking brief heavy snow to sleet to rain. NAM looks like it has the right idea. Where we have watches for heavier snows, thinking that will be a sleet fest. . It's very possible. If the Nam's depiction of the waves is close to correct, sleet is a much larger issue that the Euro or Gem showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: If I had to do that call, I would push the yellow dotted line a bit back toward Pitt for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Two days ago we were thinking the cold air may push everything south. Now we're thinking the warm is going to flood. Warm always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Atomixwx said: Two days ago we were thinking the cold air may push everything south. Now we're thinking the warm is going to flood. Warm always wins. Miller A (before)-A jumped mess of transfers and dual lows now. You are still in a good position though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I saw this gem shared on my F-book feed. S&S needs to get their head in the game lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I saw this gem shared on my F-book feed. S&S needs to get their head in the game lol MDT Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, anotherman said: That looks pretty good to me. I wonder if the 1-3" area should be farther west, but he's a great met for a reason. I'm just a dumb HR guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Gotta start looking at mesos for thermals. I am thinking brief heavy snow to sleet to rain. NAM looks like it has the right idea. Where we have watches for heavier snows, thinking that will be a sleet fest. . 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's very possible. If the Nam's depiction of the waves is close to correct, sleet is a much larger issue that the Euro or Gem showed. If there's a ton of sleet that's included in snowfall measurements, correct? So, if someone gets 5" of snow followed by 2" of sleet in the central mountains, then the a Winter Storm Warning would have verified. Or do I have that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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