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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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For the Triangle eastward you are saying "well that was fun while it lasted". This is not a good run at all for us. It would be snow to mix to rain followed by frozen puddles after. Even the Triad sees a sleet fest in this scenario. This would be an I-77 and west scenario in reality.

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7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I don't think this particular rendition of the GFS is handling the LP placement that well. There's a 1035HP high over the NY fingerlakes. Textbook CAD. I would not expect the low to take the inland track as depicted. 

The 500mb ULL bump N is a separate issue that bears watching but i'm not completely concerned about it yet. 

Agree and yes, there will be a lot more model runs to go before it is all sorted out, but I'm just as excited today about the possibilities as I was a month ago :lol:

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4 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Lousy run for Atlanta but I have a place to stay in the GA mountains so a road trip may be in order. Let's see what the Euro does.

Yep, I think ill be heading north if this verified. 

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Wasn't there some talk earlier about how the gfs has a tendency to try and slam LPs into CAD a little too aggressively in it's modeling?

Yea it's certainly done that in the past. It seemed a little strange to me how that low tracked but I guess it's also plausible due to it being slower. Euro should tell the tale today. If it keeps things suppressed then folks in RDU can breath a sigh of relief. Also we're still 4 days out. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

CMC is quicker with the energy out to 78. 

I peaked at the old black and whites and it appears to be a WNC special also.  LP tracks slightly inland like the 12z gfs.  Hopefully better maps will give more detail.

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Slower and digs further west which will amp it up too much and allow the axis to go negative further west and draw up a ton of WAA east of the ULL.  Needs to back off of that some.

I for the life of me still can't understand when and where the perfect negative tilt is.

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Just now, rduwx said:

I peaked at the old black and whites and it appears to be a WNC special also.  LP tracks slightly inland like the 12z gfs.  Hopefully better maps will give more detail.

Yea I'm only out to 87 but it looks like it's probably gonna track that direction. It's closed off before the GFS though which could make things interesting. 

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Not too sound too wish-casty but I always feel like there's a couple of "ah! omg! the GFS amps things up and turns things north up to coast!" hysteria runs before it falls back to earth. Not dismissing concerns but I'm not incredibly concerned yet. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Yea I'm only out to 87 but it looks like it's probably gonna track that direction. It's closed off before the GFS though which could make things interesting. 

Energy over New England is def displaced to the east compared to GFS as well. This could def get interesting.

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

Not too sound too wish-casty but I always feel like there's a couple of "ah! omg! the GFS amps things up and turns things north up to coast!" hysteria runs before it falls back to earth. Not dismissing concerns but I'm not incredibly concerned yet. 

ahaha we've been burned by it. But you made a very good point. If we lock in that HP then the NW trend probably won't be a concern. 

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