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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
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Just now, olafminesaw said:

Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution

Well the 6Z EPS is moving toward the GFS in a hurry. The 6Z Euro control was almost carbon copy GFS. 

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9 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

Good lord! 983 bomb over Wilmington. I did NOT expect this tonight. Soundings look impressive for a whole bunch of us 

Lol I was a bit consumed with my bulldogs last night :):sizzle:

As for this weekend, I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. Being in the bullseye this far out makes me nervous. Given the trends thats hard but realistically the run to run consistency of the models haven't been great..which of course isn't surprising this far out. 

The ga and Carolina crew sure deserve this though after watching virtually everywhere else have their day the last few years. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Lol I was a bit consumed with my bulldogs last night :):sizzle:

As for this weekend, I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. Being in the bullseye this far out makes me nervous. Given the trends thats hard but realistically the run to run consistency of the models haven't been great..which of course isn't surprising this far out. 

The ga and Carolina crew sure deserve this though after watching virtually everywhere else have their day the last few years. 

Anybody but Alabama! I think as of right now NE GA looks to be in for a shellacking. Time will tell my friend 

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Interestingly enough, the winter of 1999-2000 was one of my analog winters for my winter forecast, and I specifically referenced the old Carolina Crusher as a way of pulling out a big event even though a lot of the winter might be 'unfavorable.' Interesting. 

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14 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Interestingly enough, the winter of 1999-2000 was one of my analog winters for my winter forecast, and I specifically referenced the old Carolina Crusher as a way of pulling out a big event even though a lot of the winter might be 'unfavorable.' Interesting. 

I'll take another January 2000 or January 2002 storm. 

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1 hour ago, burgertime said:

6z EPS again goes towards the GFS. Not the monster GFS is but a nice low track with an I-85 special. RDU east across much of the state is 4+. Not so far east with that 4+ as the 00z. Sorry @ILMRoss

 

 

6z_Euro_EPS_Snow.png

Rockingham in the 6 inch contour is a similarly insane model output for an ensemble.

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Eric Webb is putting good stuff out too. March 1980 is another good one.

 

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

I see his point but I personally think it was a mistake to call out the two most ubiquitously heavy snowfalls for the Carolinas in the last 50 years as analogs.

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I think @burgertimementioned Christmas 2010 last night and just looking through the GSP report, my untrained eyes definitely see some similarities to the GFS solution. Low track and pressure drop nearly identical, just slightly further north as currently modeled. GFS CAD is better than 2010 plus peak climo so it's colder, at least for me in N GA. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Event_Review_Christmas_2010_Snow.pdf

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14 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I see his point but I personally think it was a mistake to call out the two most ubiquitously heavy snowfalls for the Carolinas in the last 50 years as analogs.

I get that from a fear standpoint to the public but I mean synoptically and upstairs very similar. 

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Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. 

From what I have been able to gather is that it is a clipper type system in the fact that it is coming from the northwest instead of the pacific, however could turn into a Miller A as it appears to dive south enough to interact with the Gulf of Mexico.

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1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. 

It’s like hybrid A/B at least on the depiction of the GFS, as it wants to transfer off SC coast which would then void the Miller A talk. Unique storm for sure.

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