Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Euro doesn't quite have what the GFS did, but these totals seem more sensical to me. GFS really does score a coup it seems. GFS has more than every other model. I really think this will probably be a 6-10" event with not many 10+ totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: EURO is on board with the jack in Salisbury. Kuchera approved Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yeah but CMC had more than that on the 6hr snowfall maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Better get out early tomorrow and get whatever you may need before the normies hear about this... its gonna be pandemonium with already bare shelves 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Any of y’all worried about the possibility of power outages? With the heavy nature of this snow. I'm worried about the possibility that there won't be power outages. 6 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, IronTy said: Charles de Gaulle would approve. That wins the thread awards for Most Obscure Historical Reference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: before the normies hear about this. Maybe we can call them "muggles". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Maybe we can call them "muggles". It's meteorology, so we'll call them meegles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here's a quick visual comparing the 0z Euro to the 0z EPS. It's hard to tell since it's overlayed on top of the EPS, but the big L represents the operational. A fair bit of lps NW of the mean, and of course there's the cluster well offshore, but that scenario seems to be dwindling with every model cycle. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 DT's first guess map. Bit of a banterish observation, but this seems to resemble some of the medium-sized events from Feb 1996, no? I recall seeing a few that bullseyed SE of DC in this fashion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HRRR pretty good I'd say 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, EHoffman said: HRRR pretty good I'd say Suggests NW trend is probably not over. A good bit juicier as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A while back I posted asking if anyone here had ever seen a positive last second swing in models from getting nothing to 10”. Being here the last 5 years I’ve come to expect it only works in the other direction. This is neat! Hope the trend continues so I get some real fun in Germantown. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6z NAM continues the northwest bump 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The trajectory of this system vaguely reminds me of January 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 6z NAM continues the northwest bump 3k NAM agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 the NAM made a huge shift at 500mb, namely in the positive interaction of the NS rather than a negative confluent push, as we had seen a couple of days ago the initial vort is more amped, which is great, but the NS is now helping to turn heights in a more southerly direction. look at the wind bards S of LI: almost due S from WSW last run. this drastically changes the angle of the PVA 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Snow may be heavy at times has entered the zone forecast products 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 From AKQ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511-513-515-021700- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.220103T0800Z-220103T1800Z/ Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway- Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, Crewe, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Bon Air, Midlothian, and Richmond 352 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Watches up just South of LWX in AKQ eta: Blacksburg went straight to Winter Storm Warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 06z RGEM shifts NW DCA went from 0.6" qpf on 00z run to 0.9" qpf on 06z run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's going to keep shifting north until NYC sees snow. Which puts DC and Balt firmly in the jackpot area, I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 06z RGEM snow 00z RGEM snow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mercurial said: It's going to keep shifting north until NYC sees snow. Which puts DC and Balt firmly in the jackpot area, I suppose. That looks to be happening seeing the RGEM yoda posted…the LWX zone forecasts are not that exciting at least for mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6z ICON follows the northwestern bump theme 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Winter Storm Watches/warnings issued by LWX 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 LWX AFD Dramatic shifts in guidance over the past 12 hours for a potential snowstorm tonight through midday Monday for the southern half of our CWA, bisecting very close to the major metropolitan areas. Digging H5 trough over the southern plains will amplify today, cut-off an upper low tonight over the Carolinas, then go negative tilt as it crosses the mid-Atlantic coast Monday morning. The reflection at the surface will be the development of low pressure, rapidly deepening and tightening tonight over the southeast US to a position over Cape Hatteras by daybreak Monday. At the same time, cold Canadian air will quickly filter in aloft, bringing H85 temps well below 0C for much of the entire CWA by 12Z Monday. 00Z GFS, ECMWF, NAM all have at least advisory level snowfall accumulations essentially south of I-66/US-50. 05Z NBM, which was followed closely in development of snowfall accumulations this morning, dampens the largest snowfall contributor -- the GFS, and splits the difference between that model and the lesser accumulating NAM. Because of the large variations and the dramatic shift in guidance, advisories have been issued west of I-95 where the precipitation onset will start shortly after midnight tonight, and watches issued along and E of I-95. There will be a tight gradient of snowfall accumulation north of the Nation's Capital, and potential warnings and advisories will most certainly be modified as guidance hopefully converges with a solution over the next 12 hours. The most likely snowfall forecast should be used with caution, with probabilities of higher amounts, towards the 90th percentile, should strongly be considered for planning purposes. Please continue to check back as we modify this forecast in the coming hours. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Damn... from morning LWX AFD "The most likely snowfall forecast should be used with caution, with probabilities of higher amounts, towards the 90th percentile, should strongly be considered for planning purposes. Please continue to check back as we modify this forecast in the coming hours." 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Damn... from morning LWX AFD "The most likely snowfall forecast should be used with caution, with probabilities of higher amounts, towards the 90th percentile, should strongly be considered for planning purposes. Please continue to check back as we modify this forecast in the coming hours." It’s like we have landed in some alternate universe where the weenies have grabbed the control panel 4 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 428 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-021730- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.220103T0600Z-220103T1800Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- St. Marys-Calvert-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 428 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of The District of Columbia, central and southern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 428 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 VAZ025>027-029-030-037>040-050-051-501>504-507-WVZ505-506-021730- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0001.220103T0600Z-220103T1800Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 428 AM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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