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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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38 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Rgem has us mostly as light snow on Sunday now...but whoa, check out the NAM! This would be nearly a half inch of freezing rain in the Syracuse area and ski towns of the Southern Tier. Perhaps it's some sleet..either way, it's probably well overdone.

zr_acc.us_ne.png

Bet it’s mistaking sleet. Even so, and people always get upset when I say this, 1/2” of frz rain isn’t much. You don’t get into trouble until you get .75-1”. Of course driving is a bitch on much, much less. 

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31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Bet it’s mistaking sleet. Even so, and people always get upset when I say this, 1/2” of frz rain isn’t much. You don’t get into trouble until you get .75-1”. Of course driving is a bitch on much, much less. 

I disagree (not upset...lol). This is especially true if wind is involved. I recall several ice storms with around a quarter to half inch of freezing rain when I was growing up that caused damage...especially when wind was involved. It doesn't look like a great setup for sleet on Sunday, so I think it will be either rain, wet snow, or freezing rain.

Local mets don't seem too impressed with Sunday or our lake effect possibilities for the beginning of the week. Hopefully we can get a bit more of a northerly component to the wind so the southern lakeshore and weenie snowbelt can get involved. Fulton is looking real good.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

I disagree (not upset...lol). This is especially true if wind is involved. I recall several ice storms with around a quarter to half inch of freezing rain when I was growing up that caused damage...especially when wind was involved. It doesn't look like a great setup for sleet on Sunday, so I think it will be either rain, wet snow, or freezing rain.

Local mets don't seem too impressed with Sunday or our lake effect possibilities for the beginning of the week. Hopefully we can get a bit more of a northerly component to the wind so the southern lakeshore and weenie snowbelt can get involved. Fulton is looking real good.

Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. 
I suppose wind would change that. 

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. 
I suppose wind would change that. 

....

And no thaw afterward, with snow piling on the ice covered branches/wires.

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Watch issued

Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
357 AM EST Sat Jan 8 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than a foot possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.
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Lake Effect Snow Sunday night through Monday evening...

Much colder air will move in Sunday night, with 850mb temperatures
plummeting to around -15c by late Sunday evening. This is plenty
cold enough to support a lake response, but moisture will initially
be limited behind the cold front. However, this will change later
Sunday night across Lake Ontario where most guidance shows a
westerly flow with a Lake Superior/Lake Huron connection enhancing
moisture. Then synoptic moisture increases as the trough digs across
the region Monday before an arctic front moves through Monday night
and shifts winds to the northwest.

This is likely to produce significant snow accumulations across the
Tug Hill and eastern Lake Ontario region. There`s a potential for
this to be a major event with totals greater than two feet, however
there remains uncertainty in wind direction which will determine
exactly where the heavy snow falls. Model guidance is already
showing the development of a strong lake effect band off Lake
Ontario late Sunday night through Monday evening. This is supported
by local analog composite charts for significant events east of Lake
Ontario and CIPS analogs. Based on this have issued a Winter Storm
Watch for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

It`s more marginal off Lake Erie, with less upstream moisture and a
westerly flow not resulting in as long a fetch as it does across
Lake Ontario. Even so, accumulating snows are likely, with advisory
to warning amounts not out of the question across the Western
Southern Tier and Boston Hills.

Bitterly cold behind an Arctic Front Monday night and Tuesday...

Good model agreement that an arctic front will drop southward across
the area Monday night with 850mb temperatures dropping to around
-25c. This will produce a burst of snows south of the lakes late
Monday night into Tuesday morning with some accumulations possible.
It also will bring in the coldest air mass so far this winter season
with high temperatures struggling to reach the teens south of Lake
Ontario with single digit highs across the North Country. This
combined with a brisk northwesterly flow will result in wind chills
of 15 to 25 below across the area.
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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I bet they are riding the RGEM which has nearly 2" of precipitation (some rain/mix)..It does spread the love out a little more, starting out SE of the lake and then backing north..

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2022-01-08T074640.558.png

Hopefully this is a case as you guys have told me that usually the band sets up a bit north of modeling when push comes to shove

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Hopefully this is a case as you guys have told me that usually the band sets up a bit north of modeling when push comes to shove

That seems to be less true with the rgem and more true with the higher Rez models, IE HRW - WRF guidance.. With LES you never know though lol

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7 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. Every time I say that folks disagree. But Rochester has had like 3 major ice storms in my life and they all had 1.25-2.5” ice accretion. We’ve had several lesser ones with under 2/3” without any major impacts. 
I suppose wind would change that. 

I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. 
 

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8 minutes ago, sferic said:

-3.4 this morning in Cicero, ouch

"Tea Kettle Effect" snow attm here in Clay. Strictly speaking it's probably not tea kettle snow but similar. Clear sky, no wind, very fine crystals falling...

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12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. 
 

This is true. We start seeing power line issues at around 0.5" ice accretion.

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