Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    Total Members
    Most Online
    Newest Member

Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

Recommended Posts


* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected along with flash freeze
  potential. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice
  accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga,
  Onondaga, Steuben, Madison and Southern Oneida counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 11 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong cold front moves through late
  tonight with temperatures quickly falling into the 20s. Any wet
  and untreated roadways and bridges could quickly freeze.


  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Arctic front enters WNY early Saturday morning and then will quickly
work from west to east across the region. With BUFKIT profiles
showing steep low level lapse rates and sufficient moisture
extending through the DGZ(-10C to -20C)...should see a brief period
of widespread snow showers along and then briefly behind the front.
Winds will also pick up ahead and behind the front with gusts of 40
to 45 mph. With the frontal passage...CAA will then drop 850 hPa
down to -18C/-20C over the lakes with increasing over lake
instability. Lake snows will then take over...with the best shot at
decent accumulations found east of Lake Ontario. Westerly flow of
260-270 will briefly make use of the longer fetch of the lake before
flow veers to NW late in the afternoon. That said...flow isn`t all
that well aligned with a bit of shear. This will likely limit
accumulation but we still could see up 3 to 5 inches across Oswego
Co. and the Tug Hill before the shift south. Off lake Erie...lesser
amounts can be anticipated with 1 to 3 inches at best.

Saturday night...lake snows will focus southeast of the lakes but
will weaken and then diminish as we head into Sunday. Could see some
accumulations but will be on the light side for counties along the
south shore of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...outside of the residual
lake snow it will be a largely dry night as sfc high over the Ohio
Valley influences the Lower Lakes. Should be the coldest night of
this period...lows in the single digits to below zero in spots.
Winds fall off quickly in the evening and then become light...so it
appears there will not be any wind chill issues.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We could see a solid squall line develope along the front Saturday morning.. Models are in surprisingly good agreement lol Small window (4-6hours) of westerly flow behind the front, veering to NW...



I'll be driving the 90 into the tug on Saturday. Going to plan it out so I get in the best stuff. :lol:

  • Like 2
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah I know it's kutchie and shame on me lol But several models have this type of look with some wrap around/enhancement early tomorrow morning.. Something I'll be watching for.. Hopefully a few hours of fluff..lol

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-17T170750.462.png

Should be a pretty morning. Imagine the snow will stick to all the trees too. 


  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Create New...