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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Glad I was able to go skiing last night. Season might be over. 
 

Agree. Just finished my annual three day trip at whiteface and conditions were pretty good but hanging on by a thread. Hard to really recover from numerous rain events over the next couple weeks.  I got my fill. Im out. Haha. 

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8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Agree. Just finished my annual three day trip at whiteface and conditions were pretty good but hanging on by a thread. Hard to really recover from numerous rain events over the next couple weeks.  I got my fill. Im out. Haha. 

I've been out 4 times so far, was hoping for 1-2 more. Need a decently sized storm to get the slopes looking good after the next 10 days of warmth/rain and refreeze. Slopes are going to be pure ice for awhile.

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2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

This is almost all sleet. But that heavy snow just over the lake is beautiful. Lolimage.thumb.png.1e10b35d5ed9b43d9da6178fc982ea08.png

 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

This looks fun next week lol

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27 (4).png

 

A low over Syracuse and a low over Jamestown? You don't say.................................................................................

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@Thinksnow18 Talking to your favorite guy on facebook today. From Don Paul.

A few of his thoughts

"IMO, overdone. Sleet should dominate over freezing rain in most of WNY during transition to all snow after midnight, from NW to SE. I don't think the subfreezing layer gets shallow enough for prolonged freezing rain on the Niagara Frontier...maybe a few hours, but I think the GFS is somewhat too lengthy with the ZR. Very tight gradient between mod-hvy snow accum in northern Niag County and lighter amts to the S & SE. Poor model agreement at this time."

HOWEVER ( with my tail between my legs), several 18z hi res models now move the front thru Buf a little faster and, with warm air aloft, now favor a somewhat lengthier period of sleet & frz rain ahead of snow. Not as much as that GFS run, but potentially significant in the evening.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Long Range GEFS shows the battle zone too. EPS/GEFS showing at least 2 weeks straight of overrunning potential with plenty of cold air close by. New England posters/mets are really high on the potential. Some of them are posting analogs for some of the best marches in history.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

it has a feb 2015 look to it. That feb was heavily dominated by the pacific with a piss poor atlantic and arctic.

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it has a feb 2015 look to it. That feb was heavily dominated by the pacific with a piss poor atlantic and arctic.

That was Buffalos 3rd snowiest February. That was the month that gave Boston all those storms. I think we all did well in that month. Just coming a little later in the winter season.

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8 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Gives me 3-4” verbatim while 30 miles to my north IAG sees 12” plus. Gonna be a crazy cut off somewhere. I’d feel a lot better if I was ThinkSnow18. I could see him getting 6-8” while I see 2” of snow and an inch of sleet. 

Not to mention this, all models now show over 1/2" of FZ for Erie county.

zr_acc.us_ne.png

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a FZ sounding?

hrwfv3_2022021700_025_42.89--78.73.png

No, the FRAM maps. They are the best for freezing rain accrual. They take into consideration precip rate, wind speed, and wet bulb temp. While the ones on pivotal are just a straight how much qpf falls as zr, which won’t all accrual and will be less. 

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

No, the FRAM maps. They are the best for freezing rain accrual. They take into consideration precip rate, wind speed, and wet bulb temp. While the ones on pivotal are just a straight how much qpf falls as zr, which won’t all accrual and will be less. 

I've never heard of those maps. Its been forever since a good ice storm around here.

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