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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

All fantasy at this point but last night's euro looked solid with a Snow/mix synoptic event and some LES to boot..I'm feeling 1 good LES event before the month ends lol

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-17T100456.574.png

Really hoping that clipper overperforms. Would be nice to have 3-4" of new snow for hiking on Sunday. 

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24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's hard finding many people in society who aren't morons when it comes to understanding at least some of the science of meteorology. We weenies need our place. :P 

My wife and her co-teachers found a self-proclaimed weather guy who is a teacher in Binghamton on Facebook so now I have to explain to her all of the realities about what he is showing and/or talking about.  A recent comment like “cold air tends to hang on more than is forecast” proved his foolishness right before the rain/snow line for a storm went a solid 50 miles NW of the forecast.  I’m sure it applies in some places, but not here.  He also showed a nice snowy map for late next week, but I told her that there are plenty of comparable maps showing us on the warm side so he is playing the Weather Channel (i.e. media) game of baiting people to pay attention.  

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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Next synoptic system to watch is probably D7/8 which is the same system the euro gave us some wintry precipitation..

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60 (1).png

As noted before, the HP over north Ontario could make a big difference this go around. It’s funny, with the models being as good as they are, the real exciting part to watch is 120 hours out. A different game than just a few years ago. 

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Saturday clipper..

Saturday, models continue to be in good agreement with a strong
shortwave and associated low passing across our region. While the
low will be filling, there will be a strong wind field with this
low, such that with cold air advection behind the front the
increased mixing heights will allow for gusts to at least 40 mph
across much of the region through the day. This cold front, passing
across the region midday, will also produce a burst of snow though
accumulations will be minor with just an inch or two. Though amounts
will be minor, the quick burst of snow with lowering visibilities
could impact travel early Saturday. Temperatures peaking ahead of
the front will likely fall through the afternoon hours.

There will be a brief window for lake effect snow Saturday Night as
the temperatures at 850 hPa plummet to the low negative teens
Celsius. Moisture and convergence looks to be greatest downwind of
Lake Ontario, though there will still be a fair amount of wind shear
through the boundary layer. Areas across the southern Tug Hill and
then southeast of Lake Ontario could receive several inches to
possibly near advisory level snows Saturday Night. Surface high
pressure will ridge across the Lakes later Saturday Night, ending
the lake snows now to the south of the Lakes as winds become
northerly.

Still snowing after this frame..

snku_024h.us_ne (62).png

snku_024h.us_ne (63).png

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Beautiful look. Hopefully it doesn't lead to suppression. Would love to have front hang up to our south with lows riding alongside. March tends to provide more moisture transport as well.

The southern snowbelts should be in business soon. Again. ;)

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Surprised there isn't winter storm warning for Niagara county

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation and snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

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1 hour ago, winter_rules said:

My wife and her co-teachers found a self-proclaimed weather guy who is a teacher in Binghamton on Facebook so now I have to explain to her all of the realities about what he is showing and/or talking about.  A recent comment like “cold air tends to hang on more than is forecast” proved his foolishness right before the rain/snow line for a storm went a solid 50 miles NW of the forecast.  I’m sure it applies in some places, but not here.  He also showed a nice snowy map for late next week, but I told her that there are plenty of comparable maps showing us on the warm side so he is playing the Weather Channel (i.e. media) game of baiting people to pay attention.  

Ha! Thanks for sharing. He sounds a big Joe Bastardi-esque.

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23 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Bigger jam looks to be locking in just before the Stevenson Street bridge.  Have this massive tree on top of the flow I’m using to judge travel distance and only seeing the flow moving about 100 yards so far.  Level is rising at a good clip right now.  

B1EDB31F-FF03-4691-8618-2FDC8A0AC7A2.jpeg

CA0BF324-1316-4502-A617-1F1057733D99.jpeg

How long does battery last on the gopro? Mine dies after a few hours. I used it for a tough mudder race and died 2/3 through it.

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49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How long does battery last on the gopro? Mine dies after a few hours. I used it for a tough mudder race and died 2/3 through it.

I set it to time lapse once before and just left it alone overnight recorded like 6 hours before it died but it was on a super cold day as well.  Just happened to roll down for a check and times it perfect the first jam broke while I was on the bridge, was a pretty intense ice flow for about 15 minutes and now it’s flowing free.  There is still another jam in place from Southgate Plaza in West Seneca back to Lydecker Road bridge so we may see another one setup later today.  

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Surprised there isn't winter storm warning for Niagara county

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation and snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one
tenth to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

Screenshot_20220217-132602_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6119d8885f62a38c1758db82052e1141.jpg

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