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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@SouthBuffaloSteve Where do you go to monitor the ice jams?

I live two streets over from Stevenson Street Bridge so that's my usual post.  Planning to zip tie my go pro to the fence 50 yards up stream and time lapse the jam form under the bridge.  Took a drive an hour ago and not seeing any rise yet just a low flow on top of the ice sheet but nothings moving.  Charts showing a very slow flow increase but this is largely remaining below the current ice sheet without issue.  My fear is a lot of the water content from the snow melt is not reaching the ground layer water table yet.  Caz rises fast, responding withing 4-6 hours of precip and runoff, but saw almost no flinch all day despite peak melt conditions.  Thinking is current pack continues to maintain an extremely dense water content that is not working into the ground.  Just went to Target in OP and the fields along Milestrip were lakes!  Possible ground layer is still frozen over and water is just stuck and not reaching the watersheds yet?  Add a rapid melt of that bottom layer tomorrow with  2" of rain and were talking a flash flood situation.  This could lead to a very violent ice flow if the entire content is all released at the same time.  I'll be chasing the ice flow down stream throughout the day.  Will have to do some recon in the morning but looking to start in West Seneca at Lydecker and move from there.  Gotta shuttle the kids here and there through out the day but no work until Monday so planning to chase the jam until it reaches the lake on Firday.  Buffalo Creek in West Seneca could also see some action as well.  Until the ice starts moving can't really tell.  I found a nice map that shows the areas covered by the creek system in WNY.  The other factor in jamming is the race on which creek can hit the Buffalo River main branch first.  If Buffalo and Cayuga Creek can dump into the River first and clog it up Caz has a major issue draining as it makes a perpendicular entry into the main branch.  If Caz can hit the River first it doesn't seem to jam as bad.         

creekswednesdaynight.png

wny water shed map.png

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Right?!? Worst ending ever. So many strings left untied. Jon Snow literally hid behind a rock for an hour, after having died for What?!?!?!

So frustrating. 

I’ve read the books and watched entire show twice. Season 8 ruined the best show ever made. If you liked got watch the Witcher, Vikings, and the last kingdom. All similar and really good shows 

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20 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

6Z GFS looks decent for BUF and maybe to ROC.  It even manages a couple/few inches into the SizzleCuse.  Down to 3-4" of snowpack.. but the mild air feels good this a.m.

KBUF mentions, finally, IF the cold air moves in faster Then Niagara And Orleans counties could achieve warning criteria snows, which would in turn bump up the counties just to the south, more northern Erie and genesee counties to 4-6 

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As far as snow amounts go, there will be a very sharp drop off in
snow amounts with the southern edge of heavier snow bisecting the
northern portion of the CWA. Expect 4-7" of snow across Niagara and
Orleans counties and possibly far northern Jefferson County as well.
If precipitation changes to all snow fast enough, low end warning
amounts of over 7" cannot be ruled out in this area. The next row of
counties south, including Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe may see
2-4" of snow, with less than 2" from the interior Southern Tier to
the western Finger Lakes and counties southeast of Lake Ontario. The
southern edge of heavier snow amounts will be very sensitive to the
position and timing of the front, but the past few model runs have
been fairly consistent.

For ice amounts, expect 0.10"-0.20" across much of Western NY and
the North Country, less than 0.10" from the interior Southern Tier
into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario.
Precipitation rates will be quite heavy during the freezing rain, so
there will likely be more QPF falling as freezing rain than these
numbers. High precipitation rates in freezing rain results in very
inefficient conversion to ice, with a large amount of runoff.

Winds...

SSW winds will continue to be quite gusty today, with gusts of 30-40
mph common across the area. Wind gusts will diminish with the
passage of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. There
will be a brief surge of stronger northerly winds overnight behind
the front as colder air rushes back into the region, and this will
bring gusts of 25-35 mph areawide and 40+mph along the south shore
of Lake Ontario.
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9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I live two streets over from Stevenson Street Bridge so that's my usual post.  Planning to zip tie my go pro to the fence 50 yards up stream and time lapse the jam form under the bridge.  Took a drive an hour ago and not seeing any rise yet just a low flow on top of the ice sheet but nothings moving.  Charts showing a very slow flow increase but this is largely remaining below the current ice sheet without issue.  My fear is a lot of the water content from the snow melt is not reaching the ground layer water table yet.  Caz rises fast, responding withing 4-6 hours of precip and runoff, but saw almost no flinch all day despite peak melt conditions.  Thinking is current pack continues to maintain an extremely dense water content that is not working into the ground.  Just went to Target in OP and the fields along Milestrip were lakes!  Possible ground layer is still frozen over and water is just stuck and not reaching the watersheds yet?  Add a rapid melt of that bottom layer tomorrow with  2" of rain and were talking a flash flood situation.  This could lead to a very violent ice flow if the entire content is all released at the same time.  I'll be chasing the ice flow down stream throughout the day.  Will have to do some recon in the morning but looking to start in West Seneca at Lydecker and move from there.  Gotta shuttle the kids here and there through out the day but no work until Monday so planning to chase the jam until it reaches the lake on Firday.  Buffalo Creek in West Seneca could also see some action as well.  Until the ice starts moving can't really tell.  I found a nice map that shows the areas covered by the creek system in WNY.  The other factor in jamming is the race on which creek can hit the Buffalo River main branch first.  If Buffalo and Cayuga Creek can dump into the River first and clog it up Caz has a major issue draining as it makes a perpendicular entry into the main branch.  If Caz can hit the River first it doesn't seem to jam as bad.         

creekswednesdaynight.png

wny water shed map.png

Keep us updated, working today until 4. If it looks good after work may head up. Looks like temps go below freezing between 5-7 across Erie County. 

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14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Just as NWS gets more excited, I’m getting less. The 6z runs (other than GFS) we’re very unimpressive. Even Toronto looks as it may suffer from lack of precip. 
Long range looks fantastic! ‘Winters over’ crowd will have to take a powder. 

Yeah it appears the GFS is pretty amps with the second wave. IF right then it could be a good night.

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4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Currently one jam in place in Caz park.  Is starting to flood over into the park.  Ice under Stevenson still has not moved yet.  Up stream in West Seneca is ice free from 90 overpass to SouthGate plaza but then looks to be a solid sheet again from there.  

F0624CF0-356D-4D14-8649-C9E8BF7B3015.jpeg

564A124D-2FB2-4135-B9AD-FAA59E4FC9B0.jpeg

12A663A2-76DC-4E50-89D7-F75E8B3322B7.jpeg

94D24090-F477-48C6-A954-5342903F9DBF.jpeg

Yeah that doesn't look nearly as good as a few years ago. Don't see any major flooding with that setup. 

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