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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still think post 10th is good. Maybe the one thing I'll get right. :lol: 

Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern.

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49 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

need to max this next light/mod snower to salvage the first half of month?  looks cold and very very dry beyond...

 

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern.

hmmm, who do i believe?

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still think post 10th is good. Maybe the one thing I'll get right. :lol: 

I went with 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as my two primary ENSO analogs due to placement of max anomalies, but the mistake I made was not adhering more closely to 2010-2011 due to how well coupled this la nina is, as opposed to last year's no-show ordeal. I needed to incorporate strength more. Big oversight on my part in November...that would have alleviated the main flaw in my forecast, which was reversing the PNA from December to January. As far as the warm December goes, the record RNA was just so massive and that is extremely difficult to foresee. I'm happy with how I have handled the polar domain, though I think the lower AK heights also persisted a bit longer into December than I had envisioned, which further augmented the warmth that I missed.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I went with 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as my two primary ENSO analogs due to placement of max anomalies, but the mistake I made was not adhering more closely to 2010-2011 due to how well coupled this la nina is, as opposed to last year's no-show ordeal. I needed to incorporate strength more. Big oversight on my part in November...that would have alleviated the main flaw in my forecast, which was reversing the PNA from December to January. As far as the warm December goes, the record RNA was just so massive and that is extremely difficult to foresee. I'm happy with how I have handled the polar domain, though I think the lower AK heights also persisted a bit longer into December than I had envisioned, which further augmented the warmth that I missed.

The extreme magnitude of the RNA trough definitely mucked up some forecasts....even medium range forecasts, not just long range. Honestly, we had a legit good NAO block so even a slightly less deep RNA trough probably nets us a lot more cold and snow in December. But that's how the dice fall sometimes.

The change in the PAC is pretty fortunate timing since we have lost the NAO blocking for the time being....we're going to be living off the Pacific. Some of the guidance hints at -NAO trying to come back later in the month but I'm not biting on that yet. My guess is any big NAO block would likely wait until later in the winter to return.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The extreme magnitude of the RNA trough definitely mucked up some forecasts....even medium range forecasts, not just long range. Honestly, we had a legit good NAO block so even a slightly less deep RNA trough probably nets us a lot more cold and snow in December. But that's how the dice fall sometimes.

The change in the PAC is pretty fortunate timing since we have lost the NAO blocking for the time being....we're going to be living off the Pacific. Some of the guidance hints at -NAO trying to come back later in the month but I'm not biting on that yet. My guess is any big NAO block would likely wait until later in the winter to return.

I agree...I think the next big NAO is later Feb into March....but even just trend it more neutral for January. This is shaping up a lot like January 2011, though...obviously that doesn't have to mean 50" of snow, but you get the idea.

As far as December goes, I can live with missed forecasts when they are easily explained.

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...I think the next big NAO is later Feb into March....but even just trend it more neutral for January. This is shaping up a lot like January 2011, though...obviously that doesn't have to mean 50" of snow, but you get the idea.

As far as December goes, I can live with missed forecasts when they are easily explained.

What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? 
 

 

9608E071-EEEE-4BF3-8BE2-50668E9FD8E7.png

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10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? 
 

 

9608E071-EEEE-4BF3-8BE2-50668E9FD8E7.png

It looks more like N ATL ridging rather than true blocking....though there's some hints of it trying to form a block in Greenland/Davis Strait, but even N ATL ridging can be useful. The GEFS are definitely more bullish on any of that getting back into Greenland/Davis strait than the EPS. The EPS was more just straight N ATL ridging.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks more like N ATL ridging rather than true blocking....though there's some hints of it trying to form a block in Greenland/Davis Strait, but even N ATL ridging can be useful. The GEFS are definitely more bullish on any of that getting back into Greenland/Davis strait than the EPS. The EPS was more just straight N ATL ridging.

Ya GEFS are beautiful. 

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58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? 
 

 

9608E071-EEEE-4BF3-8BE2-50668E9FD8E7.png

I’m not a gfs guy, but the other guidance has a similar look (maybe a bit less blocking, which is fine). I haven’t seen a look this good on guidance since March 2018, and us having a moderate snowstorm on our doorstep makes me optimistic that this pattern is for real and not a model hallucination.

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